Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200141 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 941 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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THE QUIET NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN TO THIS POINT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO LAST. A SYSTEM CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NORTHERN OHIO IS ALREADY ADVANCING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING... SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT TO THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE AREA. WHILE THEY WERE QUITE STRONG EARLIER...RADAR INDICATIONS FROM KCLE INDICATE THEY ARE ALREADY GUSTING OUT OVER METROPOLITAN CLEVELAND. AS SUCH...THE COLD POOLS UNDER THE STORMS ARE NOW OUTRUNNING THE UPDRAFTS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN ECHOES LIKELY TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. WHILE WEAKENING IS IMMINENT...GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DOES MANAGE TO PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS WERE RETAINED FOR VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WAS TO BUMP UP LOWS A BIT...PARTICULARLY IN OHIO. WITH DEWPOINTS THERE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 70S AND RAIN IMPENDING...A LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS IS UNLIKELY...WHICH WOULD BE REQUIRED TO REACH OUR PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION-RELATED CLOUD COVER WILL ADD TO THE PROBLEMS WITH TEMPERATURES REALLY FALLING VERY MUCH TONIGHT. AS SUCH...LOWER 70S SEEM MOST LIKELY IN MOST OF OUR OHIO AREAS. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT INTO WED UNTIL THE UPR TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA BY EVE. WITH THE BEST UPR SPPRT EXITING IN THE AFTN...AND UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED SVR WEA IS NOT EXPD ATTM. A SFC BNDRY IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP FM SFC LOW PRES OVR THE UPR MIDWEST...SEWD INTO THE OH VLY RGN. THIS WL BCM THE FOCUS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS THU THRU FRI. THE BEST UPR SPPRT...SHEAR AND INSTBY IS PROGGED FOR THU RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SVR WEA MAINLY S AND W OF PIT INVOF THE BNDRY. WITH RATHER HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS WL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. LTL MOVEMENT TO THE BNDRY IS EXPD BY FRI AS THE UPR FLOW TURNS NW AND BCMS ORIENTED WITH THE BNDRY. TEMPS WL RMN NR OR A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL AVGS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED BY TUESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THE LINE RAPIDLY APPROACHING AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SITES NORTH AND WEST OF PIT...SHORTLY. EXPECT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE BUT GENERALLY STAYED AT VFR UNTIL THE LINE PASSES. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR FURTHER CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE SITES THAT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE LINE BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH FOR NOW IS KZZV...KFKL...AND KHLG. A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES WITH HEATING. GENERALLY HELD EVERYONE TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH VCTS MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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