Area Forecast Discussion
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575 FXUS61 KPBZ 240924 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 524 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front sweeping through this morning returning comfortable humidity levels to the area. Below normal temperatures greet us early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The cold front will move through this morning, leaving in its wake lower dewpoints and clearing skies. Despite drying through the column, some residual moisture will be present in the mid- levels today. This will allow afternoon cu to develop as cold air advection commences. Northern zones near and north of I-80 could see an afternoon shower develop as a weak upper-level shortwave passes through the broader trough. Precipitation amounts with this activity should be negligible. Increasing sunshine will compete against the cold air advection; the result will be high temperatures right around the average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The presence of a broad upper-level trough will dominate the short term, bringing progressively cooler temperatures and afternoon rain chances. A weakening shortwave trough will cross the Great Lakes Sunday, bringing slightly deeper moisture and ascent, mainly across the north. Cold advection will provide instability in the form of steepening lapse rates through the mid-levels. Will carry chance PoPs along and north of I-80, with slight chances reaching southward near the Pittsburgh. Monday will follow a similar pattern as Sunday, with a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes. Models continue to show this trough sliding further south than the previous shortwave. Again, bolstered by steepening lapse rates, showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread southward through the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will continue into Monday night as the main upper-level trough axis passes overhead. Temperatures will continue to cool through the early part of the week, dropping around 3-5F off the daily highs and lows from today`s expected numbers. By Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The middle of the week will feature cool temperatures, left over from persistent northwest flow from the broad upper trough. Despite building high pressure at the surface, rain chances will exist Tuesday before the axis of the main trough finally shifts east of the area. High pressure will take firm hold of the area Wednesday into Thursday, restoring dry conditions areawide and allowing temperatures to begin moderation. By the latter part of the week, the center of the high shifts to just off the Mid- Atlantic coast. This will will establish a return to a warm and humid airmass that will fuel showers and thunderstorms by the early weekend. Currently, the best chance of precipitation exists on Saturday, as low pressure returns to the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Condition improvement is expected through the morning as rain ends and dry advection ensues in the wake of the front. Sfc wind will veer to the West with passage and mixing will support gusts near 20 kt by afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Chance for restrictions will come with afternoon convection on Sunday and Monday as an upper trough settles over the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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