Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 242140 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
440 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
-- Changed Discussion --Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages through
Wednesday. A Thursday cold front will bring colder temperatures
and snow showers through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --440pm update...have removed PoPs across the area, as any
precipitation is falling as drizzle. Included the mention of
patchy drizzle and fog across the north and higher elevations.
Also included the mention of patchy freezing drizzle on the
mountain peaks as temperatures there are hovering around freezing.
Looking at current soundings, with no moisture aloft, meaning a
lack of ice crystals falling into the low clouds, and a snow
growth zone well above the saturated layer, snow showers are
highly unlikely in the ridges. Temperatures have been updated with
a blend of guidance.
No real cold advection behind the system, and with stratus
remaining across the region tonight min temperatures will fall
little from evening readings.
Warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front will push
temperatures into the 40s north and 50s south Wednesday. Scattered
rain showers will develop mainly in the afternoon, as a lead
shortwave races east ahead of the approaching cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will cross the region Thursday morning with rain
showers Wednesday night mixing with and changing to snow showers
Thursday. Cold advection will continue in northwest flow through
Friday, with a reinforcing shortwave and cold front approaching on
Friday. Temperatures will fall to near the seasonal averages or a
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft will continue to feed fast moving shortwaves
across the region through the weekend, with seasonably cold
temperatures and snow showers. A model blend was used with a
broad brush for POPs due to timing issues. By Monday mid level
flow will flatten somewhat ahead of a shortwave approaching the
Great Lakes, allowing for a mainly dry day Monday. Low chance POPs
were included for Tuesday ahead of an approaching front.
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR to low MVFR conditions are expected to persist through
Wednesday morning as low level moisture behind exiting low
pressure maintains a stratus layer. Ridging should return VFR
conditions to the area Wednesday, though ports N of I 80 could see
MVFR continue until just after the end of the TAF period.
Periodic restrictions are expected Wed night through Sun with a
crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing.