Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 182225 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 625 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME WITH A SUNDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SFC HIGH PRES UNDR COOL NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT...NO FROST PROBLEMS ARE INDICATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND MDLS INDICATING CLD DVLPMNT WITH AN INVERTED TROF ALNG THE RIDGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMING FOR NXT CDFNT PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY NARROW...THE NAM BEING THE ONLY SLOW OUTLYING MODEL...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO INCLUDE LIKELY NMBRS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA...WHERE THE BTR PCPN SPPRTG DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED. MODELS GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...SO A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC SHOULD QUICKLY END THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION WL DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. COOLER AIR WL INFILTRATE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RMN INTO MID WEEK.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME ESWELY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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