Area Forecast Discussion
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447 FXUS61 KPBZ 242140 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 440 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages through Wednesday. A Thursday cold front will bring colder temperatures and snow showers through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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440pm update...have removed PoPs across the area, as any precipitation is falling as drizzle. Included the mention of patchy drizzle and fog across the north and higher elevations. Also included the mention of patchy freezing drizzle on the mountain peaks as temperatures there are hovering around freezing. Looking at current soundings, with no moisture aloft, meaning a lack of ice crystals falling into the low clouds, and a snow growth zone well above the saturated layer, snow showers are highly unlikely in the ridges. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of guidance. Previous discussion... No real cold advection behind the system, and with stratus remaining across the region tonight min temperatures will fall little from evening readings. Warm advection ahead of an approaching cold front will push temperatures into the 40s north and 50s south Wednesday. Scattered rain showers will develop mainly in the afternoon, as a lead shortwave races east ahead of the approaching cold front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front will cross the region Thursday morning with rain showers Wednesday night mixing with and changing to snow showers Thursday. Cold advection will continue in northwest flow through Friday, with a reinforcing shortwave and cold front approaching on Friday. Temperatures will fall to near the seasonal averages or a bit below. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest flow aloft will continue to feed fast moving shortwaves across the region through the weekend, with seasonably cold temperatures and snow showers. A model blend was used with a broad brush for POPs due to timing issues. By Monday mid level flow will flatten somewhat ahead of a shortwave approaching the Great Lakes, allowing for a mainly dry day Monday. Low chance POPs were included for Tuesday ahead of an approaching front. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR to low MVFR conditions are expected to persist through Wednesday morning as low level moisture behind exiting low pressure maintains a stratus layer. Ridging should return VFR conditions to the area Wednesday, though ports N of I 80 could see MVFR continue until just after the end of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected Wed night through Sun with a crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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