Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 202150 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 550 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... After low chances of rain Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will bring widespread rain to the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The early eve update featured some adjustments to overnight precip probs based on the latest RAP, HRRR/consensus-short and upstream radar trends. A shortwave/weak cold-reinforcing front is timed to complete passage across the Great Lakes and encroach on the immediate area later tonight. Although ascent fields look sufficient for precip, the moisture is limited and associated showers are expected to remain scattered. Nevertheless, have upped/quickened the onset of POPs for the pre, and peri-dawn hours of Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The unsettled pattern continues into Thursday with a shortwave moving across the area. Again, stuck with low chance pops, primarily across northern counties. The most active weather period for the week still appears to occur Friday into Friday night. Models are in good agreement that another cold front will enter the region from the west. At the same time, Tropical Storm Cindy will continue its path from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mississippi Valley. Still too early to be specific with the interaction of the moisture from the tropical storm with the front, but so far it appears that the bulk of the rainfall will remain south of the forecast area with the front shunting the Cindy remnants to the east. Thursday should be the warmest day of the 7 day forecast, with temperatures about five degrees cooler with the arrival of the front. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The chance of showers will linger south and east of Pittsburgh Saturday along the back side of the front, and an additional shortwave could spark showers on Sunday. High pressure should build in for Monday and Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather. Temperatures will remain below normal through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... General VFR is expected to be marred only be scattered, high based showers later tonight and Wednesday as a shortwave trough traverses the region. Sfc wind will back from west to south with the approach of that disturbance, then veer to the west with passage on Wednesday afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely Friday with the encroachment of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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