Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 201539
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1139 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017
There will be a chance of rain late this afternoon and tonight
as an area of low pressure crosses the region. Near or below
normal temperatures are expected until late this week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weak upper thermal trough diagnosed across the eastern Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley earlier this morning had help cause
some very light precip over the Cleveland area but has since
diminished as it approached our CWA due to much observed dry air
in the low to mid levels. Therefore adjusted POPs to include
just slight chances across parts of the western zones. Have
also adjusted cloud cover based on latest observations.
Recent model runs have slowed down the onset of precipitation in
association of the area of low pressure forecast to cross the
region late today. Therefore, have slowed down POPs and removed
thunder as not enough instability will exist while capping is
progged via model soundings.
Temperatures will flirt with seasonal average values through
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to show another weak shortwave on Tuesday but
have trended further south with this feature. As previously
mentioned, additional precip later on Tuesday will be mainly south
of Pittsburgh given the current positioning-prognosis of the
A better cold push across the immediate area will follow the
shortwave as the longwave pattern continues to amplify...with
dry conditions and temperatures well below normal Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the Ca airmass moves in out of the
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A building ridge is forecast to support moderating temperature
for the close of the week with only low precip chances expected
with a Friday warm front. Rain chances will be on the increase
by Sunday though as a midwestern trough develops toward the
Upper Ohio Region.
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cloud blanket in the form of MVFR and low-end VFR stratocu
is expected to persist overnight, before increasing subsidence
begins to suppress the low cloudiness by early morning.
A brief period of VFR will be interrupted by deteriorating
conditions in rain late Monday afternoon and evening as a
shortwave trough crosses the region.
Restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a Mon
night cold front, and with a reinforcing front later on Tuesday.