Area Forecast Discussion
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850 FXUS61 KPBZ 150532 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1232 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather under high pressure is expected today. Light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front, with more widespread rain with Tuesday and Wednesday low pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Clouds should gradually decrease overnight as high pressure begins to build in. Fog near and S of I 70 is also expected to gradually improve overnight with dry advection and the building high. A potential still exists for freezing drizzle in spots but this chance should be diminishing also. Lows should be a few degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Ridge of high pressure will remain in control on Sunday, with near average temperature expected under zonal flow. A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. As this occurs, warm advection will resume. A warm front lifting across the region on Monday may pose additional freezing rain concerns early across points south of I-70, but with a slightly slower onset of precipitation that the last set of model runs, it appears the threat would be brief, if at all. Thus, will similar reasoning as the previous shift, will hold off on an HWO mention. A return of warm, moist air through Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, will support likely to categorical PoPs across the region based on the latest blend of guidance. Temperature will also trend above average with values almost 20 degrees above normal Tuesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Quick cooldown is expected on Wednesday with northwest flow rain and snow showers possible before we warm up once again through the end of the week. Used the superblend to construct most of this forecast with only minor adjustments in the latter half of the period based on the deviation in guidance values. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IFR/MVFR conditions in low ceilings and patchy fog will linger over ports south of Pittsburgh for a couple hours after midnight, but building high pressure will ensure VFR and light wind for Sunday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions can be expected with a Monday warm front, and with a Tue/Wed cdfnt.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.
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&& $$ 07/15

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