Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061428 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 928 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure is expected to spread precipitation across the region Tuesday. A Thursday cold front will return snow shower chances and much colder temperatures for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper level shortwave trough and associated surface low shifting across the Ohio valley today will support widespread precipitation over the region while sufficient moisture is fetched from the Gulf and Atlantic. Strong warm advection aloft will result in mostly freezing rain where the advisory is. Some sleet may be mixed in initially as wet-bulbing takes into effect. Southeast flow will inhibit warming in these areas until the flow veers southwest later in the evening. Across the northeast zones, precipitation should be held off long enough while temperatures warm and allow for rain or snow showers. This diagnosis is supported by the morning sounding displaying abundant dry air as this feature is progged to advect northeast. Later today, however, the northeast zones remain in a possible favorable area for quick snow accumulation as wet- bulbing, moisture, and omega fields are enhanced via upper dynamics. Will closely monitor the area and latest model trends for any significant changes in the forecast. The low level jet should allow for gusty winds across the ridges this evening but are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Steady precipitation will pull off to the east fairly rapidly by the late evening as the system shifts east. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather is forecast for Wednesday as surface high pressure pays a brief visit, although temperatures will remain a touch below normal. The next cold front is still expected to cross on Thursday, bringing the coldest air of the season thus far. Kept the idea of high chance/low likely PoPs for snow showers behind the front in the developing mid-level trough. Lake enhancement does not appear likely with generally WSW flow, although some minor accumulation is possible, especially north of Pittsburgh. Temperatures will tumble towards values well below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper troughing and cold W-WSW flow should persist across the eastern CONUS through Friday maintaining the chance for lake enhanced and upslope snow showers. Some accumulation is likely with a 13+ degree temperature difference between the lake and 850hpa. But with uncertainty in band placement, have just upped PoPs for the likely locations through Saturday morning. A less amplified pattern sets up for the weekend through early next week, with several crossing shortwaves progged. Differences in the evolution of these systems prompted the use of the superblend for much of this timeframe. Much below average temperatures are expected to moderate by early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Condition deterioration to eventual IFR can be expected today as low pressure spreads precip over the region. Most of that will be rain, but a wintry mix is anticipated at FKL and DUJ. ESE may also be problematic on the surface with gusts around 20kt with gradual veering as the system passes this afternoon and evening. MVFR cigs are likely to linger tonight in the residual moisture blanket and cooler flow behind the system, but building surface high pressure will support improvement to VFR on Wednesday. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely for the rest of the week as a strong cold front sweeps the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ074-076. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR WVZ512>514. && $$

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