Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192215 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 615 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WIND WARMS TEMPERATURES UP. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE. PREVIOUS... BROAD SFC HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AS THE HIGH HAS SLOWLY PIVOTED EAST OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...OUR AREA HAS FOUND ITSELF ON THE SW QUADRANT...BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS CURRENTLY MANIFESTING ITSELF IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ALTOCU DEVELOPMENT SPREAD WEST WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOME TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS SFC GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT. AM TRENDING LOWER WITH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASED BL FLOW ALONE SHOULD PRECLUDE EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLIRTING WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MSTR WILL INCR SAT NGT ON SWLY WIND AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT IS XPCD TO CROSS THE RGN ON SUN. THIS INCRG MSTR WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO AGGRESSIVELY SAT NGT...WITH MINIMA IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S. SHWRS FORMING ALONG THE ADVCG FRONT MAY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN ZONES BY LATE SAT NGT. 500 MB SHRTWV TROF WILL BGN TO ACQUIRE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT ON SUN AS IT CROSSES THE SRN GRTLKS. THE CONCURRENCE OF INCRG SHEAR AS THE JET STRENGTHENS...CONTD MSTR ADVCTN AHEAD OF CDFNT...AND INCRG LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE DVLPMT OF CNVCTV LINE ALONG THE SURGING FRONT. THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE WILL DEPEND UPON AMT OF SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS AHD OF THE BNDRY. PROVIDED DP CNVCTN DVLPS...THERE WILL BE A POTL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH ORGANIZED CNVCTV LINE SEGMENTS. THIS POTL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO ATTM. POPS WERE INCRD CONSIDERABLY ON SUN IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS. BEST CHC FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE SUN AFTN AS CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. ANY SHWRS WILL SHIFT EWD BY EARLY EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE- EFFECT SHWRS FORMING ACRS NRN ZONES SUN NGT. SFC HIPRES MOVES INTO THE RGN BY MON...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN AND PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THRU MON NGT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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