Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270501 AAD AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 101 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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FOCUSED ON TWO SHORTWAVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONE OVER MY AREA AND ONE TO THE WEST. SHORTWAVE OVER MY AREA WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BE NEAR THE EAST COAST. WESTERN WAVE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. I AM A LITTLE SUSPECT ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE WESTERN WAVE. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS DIVING MORE SOUTH THEN EAST. I WOULD THINK THAT THIS WILL DRIVE WESTERN WAVE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT HERE AND LESSEN THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN FROM WESTERN WAVE. LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY AS PREVIOUS RUNS. A TRIGGER TO GET THINGS ROLLING IS LACKING AS OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVES HAVE ROBBED THE ATMOSPHERE OF ENERGY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE NEXT MAIN WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AS PORTRAYED IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A T-STORM. OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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