Area Forecast Discussion
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064 FXUS61 KPBZ 210725 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Shower chances will continue early this morning as a cold front completes its passage. Otherwise, dry weather is expected today under weak high pressure. Rain chances return especially south of I 70 with weekend low pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Isolated to scattered showers should continue early this morning with a crossing cold front. The front is expected to exit the region after by mid morning with dry weather expected the remainder of the day under weak surface ridging. Highs are expected to be near or a few degrees above the seasonal average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A northern stream upper trough is progged for approach and passage tonight and Saturday as a deepening upper low tracks from the srn Plains to the Upper MS/lwr OH valley region. A developing surface low in response to the upper low is progged to track across the TN valley region Saturday. This scenario should result in increasing clouds and rain chances S of I 80. The most likely area to see rain is S of the I 70 corridor which will be closer to the surface low and an inverted trough. The surface and upper lows are progged to to the SE CONUS by Sunday and Sunday night with gradually decreasing POPs across the local area. Models have trended further S in the latest solutions, so made similar adjustments to the forecast grids. Temperatures should average near or several degrees below seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Generally dry and warmer weather is expected early in the week as the low exits off the SE Coast. A zonal flow is progged by mid week with an embedded weak trough resulting in returning precip chances. Building ridging by the end of the week should result in dry weather. A gradual warming trend is expected, with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average by late week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers have become scattered ahead of cold front across central Ohio with ocnl MVFR in showers, with cigs becoming low VFR to MVFR behind the front 10-14Z. Expect IFR CIGS at northern ports where low level moisture in weak cold advection will give low stratus into late morning. Winds will shift to the west and northwest behind the front over 10 Kts through the daytime, with widespread VFR by late afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with weekend low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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