Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250731 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 331 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of crossing disturbances have returned rain chances to the Upper Ohio Valley Region for this morning, and again late this afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Changes for the morning update featured further adjustments to precip probability in response to weakening convection under a shortwave in zonal flow aloft. In short, numerous showers and isolated storms can be expected through the predawn hours with a taper-off thereafter as the supporting disturbances progresses eastward. The midday period is expected to be dry given shortwave ridging between disturbances. Temperature was thus adjusted upward toward higher guidance; however, the next in series of disturbances is progged to trigger another round of convection focused on a weak front moving off the great lakes late this afternoon/this evening. Likely POPS were maintained for extreme northern zones. Increased flow aloft may support some severe thunderstorms, but this potential is expected to be tempered via very warm mid level temperature. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Have persisted with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest, and consistent deterministic trends. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Little change in pattern is indicated through the first half of next week with the southern U.S. upper high maintaining grip, but with tropical system encroachment toward the Southeastern Coast. Shortwaves with the zonal flow over the immediate area would support periodic, and diurnally-supported precip chances for the long term. Low-confidence slight to chance POPs were maintained for that eventuality as per the latest Superblend guidance. Warm temperature can be expected given the lack of any significant airmass alteration. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms will encroach from the west during the early portions of the forecast. Expect coverage and intensity to continue to decrease overnight, so have only included restrictions in a tempo group. Shortwave that has sparked the activity will clear the area quickly this morning. Expect a quick return to vfr conditions after sunrise. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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