Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210104 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 904 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected with the approach and passage of a cold front through early Sunday, before building high pressure brings dry and less humid weather through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Shower chances are expected to increase through the night with increasing shortwave support ahead of an approaching cold front. With waning instability maintained only a chance of thunderstorms. Passage of the front is progged for late night/early Sunday morning, so maintained a period of high likely to categorical pops with it`s passage with sufficient moisture and shortwave support. The front is expected to exit from W-E Sunday morning with a corresponding reduction in pops. Lows should average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels tonight, with readings close to average Sunday after frontal passage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The 500 mb trough axis will push through Sunday night. Northwest flow off of the Great Lakes and modest cold advection may promote a few isolated showers overnight north of Pittsburgh. These will end by sunrise, with lower dewpoint air moving in. Monday and Tuesday will feature abundant sunshine and comfortable humidity levels as surface high pressure crosses. Below normal temperatures on Monday will rise closer to climatology on Tuesday as the air mass modifies and mid-level heights rise. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry weather continues through Wednesday with the passage of the mid-level trough axis, and temperatures will warm to above normal. Humidity increases again by Thursday in increasing southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances return by Thursday night ahead of the next front. The boundary passes Friday or Friday night with continued rain chances. Behind the front, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are forecast for the start of the next weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Medium confidence forecast. A cold front will cross around daybreak spreading showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder to all terminals late tonight through the overnight. The period of time when a restriction in showers is forecast continues to decrease with subsequent model runs. Continued MVFR VIS restrictions with a period of IFR cigs at most terminals in wake of the front /11z- 15z/. This concurs with what happened this morning over IA and IL. Low level moisture hangs tough through the morning hours before owing to cirrus clouds from west to east during the afternoon. Several terminals will be just below IFR threshold...however despite guidance putting all airports below 1K opted to keep the more climo favored ones /PIT, LBE, and MGW/ just above. Winds will be from the south to southwest before turning to the west. Speeds will be around 10 kts the duration of the forecast. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will be early Monday with MVFR fog and stratus. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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