Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140626 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 226 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through tonight. The threat for rain returns later Thursday and through Friday as low pressure tracks to our north and a cold front crosses the region. A few thunderstorms are possible. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet weather with high clouds. - Low temperatures well above normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Update... Made some minor adjustments to hourly elements based on observations and near term model data. Previous... Surface high pressure and flat upper ridging drifting across the Mid-Atlantic region will keep the area dry and warm overnight with lows 15-20 degrees above average. Wind gusts have subsided and will hold to just a light southwesterly breeze tonight at 5 mph or less. Coupled with mostly clear skies, this should allow for decent radiational cooling at least for the first half of the overnight hours before upper level clouds increase from the west ahead of approaching low pressure. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet and mild night with departing high clouds. - Risk for rain showers increases Thursday afternoon/evening. - More widespread rain expected Thursday night/Friday with the risk for storms. - Temperatures remain well above normal. ------------------------------------------------------------------- There remains some uncertainty Thursday on timing and coverage of rain, especially in the afternoon and early evening. This is mainly due to the placement and strength of an expected ridge and the passage of a warm front. The bulk of the guidance is leaning towards dry weather continuing through Thursday morning as upper level heights continue to rise. A shortwave trough will help to flatten the ridge Thursday afternoon, which in turn may influence how far north a crossing warm front will reach. Latest HREF probabilities continue to show low chances over our westernmost counties in Ohio during the late afternoon, increasing slightly into the evening before higher chances then overspread the area Thursday night. While chances remain low due to uncertainty surrounding the timing of approaching lift and departing subsidence, ensemble soundings and hodographs depict an environment with marginal instability but sufficient wind shear to allow for thunderstorms to develop, potentially organized and capable of producing strong winds and hail. The Storm Prediction Center currently highlights a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms just to our west across central Ohio. Deep moisture arrives for the Thursday night into Friday period on W/SW flow aloft. A shortwave trough rides up the Ohio Valley on Friday, with an attendant surface low tracking north of our CWA. Model solutions are still a bit murky with the details of timing and strength, but precipitation chances nevertheless are good. Thunderstorms still appear possible along a crossing cold front. Once again, ensemble progs of instability are not overly impressive, although 40-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear may still be available. At this point, severe potential is on the low end. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. - Saturday may be dry, but precipitation chances return for Sunday and Monday, with a slow trend towards normal temperature. ---------------------------------------------------------------- A brief dry interlude is possible on Saturday, with continued above-normal temperature. Thereafter, shortwaves diving south from Canada appear to carve out a trough over the Upper Midwest and northern Plains Sunday into Monday. Smaller disturbances on the eastern side of the trough may provide some precipitation chances to our region into early next week. As the trough slowly approaches, a trend towards climatological temperature appears possible due to falling 500mb heights. The northwest flow then continues into Tuesday with deterministic models showing the potential for snow showers but given the warm trend lately, this might need a bit more investigation as next week approaches. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will continue into the early afternoon time period under high pressure. Adjusted wind gusts for the early afternoon, sufficient diurnal heating should help mixed elevated wind gusts to the surface. Probabilities are higher west of PIT after 16Z for 20kt gusts as a disturbance builds over the Midwest. Clouds will start to thicken during the late morning and afternoon with a flux of warm, moist conditions under strong southerly flow. However, confidence is still remains high that ceilings will stay above 5000 feet. Remnant convection developing in the Midwest this afternoon may track into the Ohio River Valley late this evening. A few storms may be severe west of PIT; PROB30 for -TSRA has been added to cover the uncertainty of unorganized convection. A descending cold front from Lake Erie to northern PA will likely keep precipitation in the region into early Fri morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will likely follow in the wake of the front (between 06Z to 12Z Friday). .Outlook... Restrictions remain possible through early Saturday, either from cigs and/or areas of fog. VFR briefly returns later Saturday under high pressure, before another cold front returns a restriction potential Sunday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Shallenberger NEAR TERM...WM/MLB SHORT TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger LONG TERM...Cermak/Shallenberger AVIATION...Hefferan/CL

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