-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160812
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
412 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD...AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRE IN ITS VICINITY. FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN WV AROUND
LUNCHTIME. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE...WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE ACTIVITY. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE EAST AFTER DAWN...ALLOWING FRONT TO SETTLE INTO
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. WITH THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT AND LOSS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO NOT ONLY MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF MY FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-FIRE LATER TODAY IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NORTH OF THE FRONT...
ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE...WHILE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BECOMES UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
TODAY. WOULD ALSO EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH THE FAR NORTH SEEING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL GET A BIT OF A PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
DRY AIR ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MODELS AGAIN HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT BACK NORTHWARD OF THE FRONT ACROSS REGION. WITH
UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE...FELT IT BEST TO ONLY MAKE MINOR
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AND KEEP POPS IN THE CHC TO SCHC RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH BY THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN LOCATION OF BOUNDARY ON THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ALONG THE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD MIGRATING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MVFR VIS
COMMON IN TS. TREND FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD ALLOW IT TO
START TO FALL APART TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH FRONT SLIDING SOUTH OF
THE KZZV TO KPIT CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF THE SHRA/TS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE TS...STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST PLACES THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$