Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221808 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 208 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend with showers and storms expected through Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms have expanded in coverage with the help of a passing MCV over NW PA. Ample cloud cover and precipitation has limited instability to this point, despite 30-35kts of shear. Overall the threat for severe has diminished, but a strong storm or two is still possible, generally south of PIT through the evening, especially if any peaks of sun occur. SPC has downgraded much of the region to a marginal risk, save for the area I mentioned - south of I-70. This may be a region of focus for further development this evening, but confidence in severe threat is rather low. All of this being said, high precipitable water and warm cloud depths near 13kft will support heavy rain and a potential flood threat where storms train over an area. Will not issue a watch at this time as flash flood guidance has recovered for much of the region with several days of dry weather. Showers and storms should diminish in coverage overnight but low chance PoPs were maintained with a boundary in the vicinity and moist low levels. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above seasonal lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The risk for showers and storms will continue on Sunday as a shortwave trough, diving across the Great lakes helps to push a boundary southward. Again, there is a chance for severe storms, with 1000j/kg CAPE and 40kts shear. It appears that there will be enough of a break in the activity Sat night/early Sunday to support better daytime heating, which may help support more organized convection. Again, the primary threat will be damaging wind. Activity wanes Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating, but again expect a muggy night with temps well into the 60s and lower 70s. Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level ridge will shift eastward over the region on Tuesday, with rising heights leading to a gradual warming through Thursday. Deepening upper low over Hudson Bay will swing a boundary over the Great Lakes late week, returning better chances for showers/storms in northwest flow to end the week. Temperatures will generally be within 5 degrees of seasonal averages through the period, with lesser humidity Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Periodic restrictions will continue in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Ceilings have, for the most part, lifted, but should fall back to MVFR/IFR this evening. Low level moisture and today`s rainfall should support fog in the usual locales. some improvement is expected before another round of showers and storms tomorrow. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing thereafter.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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