Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221913 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 213 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Any lingering showers will end by evening. Warm weather is expected to continue until the passage of a late Friday night and Saturday morning cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A few showers continue to linger near/north of I-80 and will do so for a few more hours until upper support is lost. Dry weather is then figured for late this afternoon and this evening as a flat ridge moves across. Increasing SW flow towards morning will push a higher PWAT air mass into the area. This, combined with some weak isentropic lift, will generate some scattered showers starting late tonight across the western counties, and then over most of the CWA on Thursday. Tall and skinny CAPE profiles suggest some thunder potential, but will keep this chance slight as some mid-level capping could hinder deep convective development. Only made minor alterations to temperatures tonight and tomorrow, with much above normal values to continue. See climate section for record highs which may be in jeopardy.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Scattered showers will continue into Thursday night, but activity will start to taper from south to north as a warm front lifts northward across the area. This will plant us firmly in the warm sector for much of Friday, and will result in dry weather and a peaking of the warm temperatures. Highs on Friday will soar into the 70s for the majority. The models are continuing the slower trend with the well- advertised frontal passage, which is now slated for Saturday morning or early afternoon. Have slowed PoP progression a bit as a result. The timing of the passage would still not seem to favor much of a severe threat given the expected lack of buoyancy, but with strong flow and plenty of curvature to hodographs, any storms will still need to be monitored for gusty winds at least. 850 mb temps quickly crash behind the front, but it will take some time for the boundary layer to cool, and thus any post-frontal showers should remain in liquid form through 00Z Sunday. Updated temperatures with a bias-corrected guidance blend.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on Monday before having surprisingly good agreement on Wednesday. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday, high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s once again a possibility by the first day of March.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Although most locations have VFR conditions, some IFR ceilings have bled into ZZV/FKL from the west, where most upstream locations across Ohio and Indiana have IFR/LIFR readings. Decided to go more pessimistic with the forecast, keeping only a short period of VFR conditions through the afternoon and bringing conditions more quickly late this afternoon and evening compared to the 12Z TAFs. Made little to no changes after sunset, keeping all locations under restrictions into Thursday. Light w-sw wind will continue through the period. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with the passage of a Friday night/early Saturday cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Wed Thu Fri --------- -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922,30) 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 67 (1992) 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 70 (1980) 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 60 (1983) 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 57 (1949) 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 73 (1997) 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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