Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301854 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 254 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
RAIN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHEASTWARD TRANSLATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEPER MOISTURE IS FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER QUICKLY SATURATING THE LIFTED LAYER AND STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AT THIS HOUR. THIS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...WITH ALL OF THE CWA BECOMING ENVELOPED BY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO. AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR...LOWERING THE CHANCES OF RAIN THERE...HOWEVER AS THE 700 MB TRIPLE POINT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...MID-LEVEL BAROCLINITY WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD MORNING...SECONDARILY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN. SEVERAL MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF THE AREA MOVING INTO A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT FOR A PORTION OF SUNDAY...AND TODAY`S RUNS REALLY ARE NO EXCEPTION. DEEP MOISTURE PEELS OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE A THIRD TIME AS A RESULT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER FORCING FROM A WEAKLY COUPLE 250 MB STRUCTURE AND THE NOSE OF A FORMING MODEST 850 MB LLJ POKES INTO OHIO BY LATE PM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO WORK ON THE 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE THAT WILL BE PRESENT PER THE NAM/GFS. SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THEY GET HERE...TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE OFF IN A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS...RESULTING IN MANY AREAS REACHING THE 70S. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN OHIO TO WESTERN NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE OUTLOOKED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK BY SPC. RAIN WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES ON TO NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS POINT...POPS ARE GENERALLY CONTAINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK AND TRAILING COLD FRONT...MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY...AND HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST COOL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IMPULSES ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS FROM BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT NW OF KPIT...WHILE BREAKS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME ABUNDANT AS SATURATION INCREASE. SOME BREAKUP OF CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER SUNSHINE WILL ONLY WORK TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLETES PASSAGE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.