Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 152007 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 407 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MID LEVEL JET HAS SUPPORTED AN AREA OF SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER PA/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY THIS BAND SHOULD HEAD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONG COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONSIDERING HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN...SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE EXCEPT ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. GENERALLY WENT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS A BIT LONGER WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE TOUCHING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ACCUMULATIONS WERE KEPT AT JUST AROUND AN INCH AS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THINK THAT IF WE CLEAR OUT AND DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20`S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE BREAKING OF A RECORD LOW OF 21. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SUNNY AND DRY DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH VERY LITTLE MIXING OF THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 30`S BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...BUT GOING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WITHIN NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AWAY FROM FKL/DUJ. HAVE ANTICIPATED THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE EVENING...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW COULD KEEP CLOUDS IN LONGER. THINK THAT ALL SITES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH CAVU. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND GO VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NXT CHC FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEEKEND LOW PRES ADVN AND PASSAGE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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