Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171606 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1206 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry and warm weather can be expected through the next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cumulus will again develop rapidly by midday. It will again persist the longest ahead of the weak mid- level trough that will be pushing into the SE portions of the area by late afternoon. Skies should again clear toward evening. Additionally, with a deja vu large scale and boundary layer setup, highs seem poised to basically straddle 80F at most locations even without abundant sunshine. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A front that is currently barreling through Minnesota and Iowa will trickle eastward toward the area on Monday. While all of its support shears off to the north and the front slams into high pressure and dry air aloft, it seems it should do little more than whimper as it arrives. PoPs have generally been kept below mention on Monday, save for the ridges, where easterly flow will continue to keep the boundary layer moist and thus the column a bit more unstable. Beyond Monday, short wave ridging between Jose to the east and the sprawling upper trough over the intermountain west will allow for continued subsidence and generally dry, albeit not entirely clear, conditions with above normal temperatures. Fries && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper trough over the western CONUS continues to rapidly dig through next weekend. Compensatory height increases over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley start to get really out of hand as a result. Many model simulations and ensemble solutions suggest 500 mb height values jumping toward or above 590 dam from Friday through next weekend with increasing southerly flow at 850 mb and temperatures at 850 mb increasing toward +17C by next weekend. This would result in highs jumping well into the 80s across the area through the period as a result. To account for this, high temperatures were largely adjusted well above the curiously cool SuperBlend guidance. Additionally, with amplified ridging overhead, dry conditions should continue. Fries && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Persistence forecast is expected into Monday. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible early this afternoon with diurnal cu eventually rising to VFR. Clouds should clear out this evening with another round of MVFR and patchy IFR in fog early Monday. .Outlook... Patchy morning fog restrictions are possible through Thu with ridging in place.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.
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&& $$

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