Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 051058 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 558 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week, with rain possible again Tuesday. Much colder air and snow showers will arrive by Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Shortwave continues to pivot eastward this morning, with drier air aloft advecting over the region supporting some drizzle. Have adjusted the forecast the reflect this, with quiet conditions expected for the rest of the day. Also, as temperatures across the entire region have gone several degrees above freezing in southwesterly flow, have cancelled the winter weather advisory for the ridges. Despite high pressure settling overhead, cloud cover should limit temperatures to just below seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next system, currently back near southwest Texas this morning, will lift northeastward with the help of a digging system of the northern Plains. Plenty of moisture will stream northward from the Gulf with this system, but much of the guidance has a secondary low developing along the east coast, which will rob some of this energy from us. Regardless, we are expecting a surge in warm temperatures aloft to support mainly rain across the region with a brief mix at onset possible, especially north of Pittsburgh. This may be another good set-up for some icing in the ridges, much like last evening, as cold air is reinforced with in southeasterly upslope flow. Have mentioned this threat in the hwo and will let the next shift analyze the hi res model data to get a better handle on duration of the event. With the decent model consensus and progged lift, have maintained the categorical PoPs areawide through Tuesday night. A changeover to snow is possible late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning but with westerly flow for much of Wednesday, and subsidence aloft conditions should dry out before the more notable cold air filters southward for the end of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The active weather pattern continues as a strong cold front moves across the region on Thursday, bringing the coldest air of the season so far. Virtually all snow is expected with the passage, although there will be little accumulation associated with the boundary itself. Cold advection snow showers are then expected to continue through Friday night, ending as flurries north of Pittsburgh Saturday morning. Best accumulation chances during this period will be along/north of I-80 and along the ridges. Temperatures may recover somewhat thereafter, such that the next system Sunday into Monday may have more rain involved than snow. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some patches of drizzle will remain at 12Z, but this should taper off for the most part by mid-morning. MVFR ceilings will linger through the morning as low pressure pulls away and gusty west to northwest winds continue. Building high pressure this afternoon will lift ceilings back to VFR and allow the wind to diminish to under 10 knots. VFR conditions will then continue tonight as the high crosses. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next fast-approaching system from the southwest. Some precipitation may show up near the Mason-Dixon Line just prior to 12Z Tuesday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night as the next low pressure system crosses. A strong cold front will bring more restrictions by Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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