Area Forecast Discussion
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551 FXUS61 KPBZ 241843 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 243 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking along the East Coast should result in periodic rain chances mainly east of I 79 early in the week. Dry and warm weather is expected with mid week high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest satellite imagery showing the cloud shield has made very little northward advancement. These clouds will slowly creep northward this afternoon as the southeastern CONUS low turns the corner and moves northeast. Rain chances will ramp back up this afternoon across the Ridges as mid-level dry air evacuates and moisture begins to advect back in from the Mid- Atlantic. Away from the high terrain, a lack of organized ascent will necessitate only slight rain chances through the night. The upper low will track along the coast Tuesday, keeping us on along the northwestern periphery of the system. Rain chances will remain best confined to the higher elevations, but a weak area of deformation could spill rain west, closer to Pittsburgh during the day Tuesday. Temperatures tonight will be above seasonal averages with uniform cloud cover. Another west to east gradient of high temperatures is expected Tuesday as cool air advects into the eastern zones, under overcast skies. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The upper-level low will finally move out of the region Wednesday morning as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. This will bring tranquil weather back to the local area for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong southerly flow through the mid- levels will establish as heights build Wednesday. This and relatively cloud-free skies will lead to strong warming, with temperatures topping out around 15 degrees above average. Highs in the low 80s should be common. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging is progged to shift east early in the period as a trough advances out of the Midwest, returning rain chances to the forecast. Gradually increasing heights and SW upper flow are expected through the weekend in response to a deepening wrn CONUS trough. Embedded shortwaves in the SW flow should result in periodic shower/thunderstorm chances from late week through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to average 10-20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will be predominate for the TAF period as easterly flow continues to funnel moisture against the ridges. Light rain chances will generally be confined to LBE and MGW. A fairly tight pressure gradient will supports gusts near 20 kts this afternoon. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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