Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 121129 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 729 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A crossing cold front will end shower and thunderstorm chances by evening. Dry weather can be expected with Sunday high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast remains on track and no major updates are needed early this morning. Previous discussion follows.. A cold front will complete passage over the region later today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will reescalate for areas east of I 79 as the day warms, and as another shortwave trough approaches in support. Temperature is expected to be within a few degrees of the seasonal average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure will move over the Great Lakes for Sunday, so dry weather will close the weekend. A weak boundary is progged to upslope some moisture into the ridges on Monday, but model reaction to the weak orographic convergence with such weak shortwave support seems overdone and have retreated from the blanket of POPs over the eastern half of the CWA early on Monday. The approach of a deeper trough should improve that situation for Tuesday, so POPs for that time frames was adjusted. Short term temperature under low amplitude troughing should remain a couple degrees below the mid-August averages. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Shortwave ridging is progged for midweek, so a return to average, or slightly above, temperature can be expected with precip suppression. Another low digging toward the western Lakes will funnel moisture over the Upper Ohio with its advance, so a humidity increase should be anticipated with the improving warmth as well. That low/associated cold front is timed to increase POPS over the immediate area as next weekend approaches. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Condition improvement is expected this morning, but showers and storms should develop south and east of PIT from late morning on as a cold front traverses the region. .OUTLOOK... Surface high pressure is forecast to support general VFR through early next week with exceptions for peri-dawn fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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