Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140405 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1205 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather Saturday. A Sunday cold front will then bring fall like weather Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Dry weather is expected under shortwave ridging. A moist boundary layer in SE upslope flow should maintain stratus across the higher terrain of PA and MD. The stratus should dissipate in the morning as the flow veers to the S. An overnight/early morning fog mention was confined to areas where wind is expected to die completely. Expect temperature readings 10 to 15 degrees above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Few changes were needed for the short either as a cold front is progged to traverse the area on Sunday afternoon/evening. There remains timing differences amongst operational models and ensembles. Past experiences say slower solutions will verify which sides more with the NAM forecast, but we will see. Not to concerned with a severe or a high water threat. Despite PWATS climbing in excess of 1.70", forward motion will yield brief downpours but no flooding concerns. As for severe, shear is modest however instability is weak along with lapse rates, so just predicting general thunder. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The post-frontal cool down is expected to be brief as the associated Eastern CONUS trough is forecast to rapidly fill. Zonal flow/flat ridging will thus moderate temperature back toward, and then above the averages for the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Outside of some persistent stratus because of moist upslope near DUJ and some peri-dawn fog at ZZV, general VFR is expected for the TAF period as weakening boundary layer downslope continues before veering toward the south on Saturday. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is expected with a Sunday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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