Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201744 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 144 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... There will be a chance of rain late this afternoon and tonight as an area of low pressure crosses the region. Near or below normal temperatures are expected until late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Recent model runs have slowed down the onset of precipitation in association of the area of low pressure forecast to cross the region late today. Therefore, have slowed down POPs and confined thunder to only the southwest zones as elevated instability may be progged in through there. Temperatures will flirt with seasonal average values through the period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Much of the region will be dry Tuesday with the exception of the ridges in the morning as low level moisture may be slow to exit the area. Another weak shortwave trough forecast by models to cross Tuesday night will be accompanied with very little moisture and lift. Have only slight chance to low chance precip to the far south with this feature as the favorable location within the base of the trough passes south of the CWA. Cool northerly flow Wednesday through early Thursday will drop temperatures to below normal values before ridging and a quick transition to southerly flow begin to help slightly warm temperatures by the end of the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Moisture is progged to increase in response of an upper low stationed over the southern plains. This feature will slowly shift towards the Great Lakes and increasing rain chances with a warm front on Friday followed by the approaching cold front over the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The cloud blanket in the form of MVFR and low-end VFR stratocu is expected to persist overnight, before increasing subsidence begins to suppress the low cloudiness by early morning. A brief period of VFR will be interrupted by deteriorating conditions in rain late Monday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough crosses the region. Outlook... Restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a Mon night cold front, and with a reinforcing front later on Tuesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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