Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301724 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 124 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH...THOUGH OBSERVED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED USING THE LATEST GFS MOS. A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST. WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE FEATURED EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONTINUED GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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