Area Forecast Discussion
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474 FXUS61 KPBZ 231202 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 758 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure is expected to maintain dry conditions with very little cloud coverage today. Highs are expected to reach slightly above normal. With very weak low level flow, the surface wind is expected to be light as the boundary layer mixes out.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging will continue to transition over the area through the period with the ridge axis progged to be east of the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then turn southwesterly and result in increased moisture advection with cloud coverage increasing later in the day. Overnight lows will be warmer as a result. Rain chances will be on the rise Thursday as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of a weak cold front expected to cross the area late Thursday night. Friday will largely be dry in the wake of the front except for a slight chance of activity over the higher terrain where increased convergence, residual low-level moisture, and daytime heating may be enough to trigger a few showers/storms. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper level high will remain nearly stationary across the southeastern United States through the period. The chance for precipitation will be dependent on the timing of waves rotating around the high. Both the GFS and ECMWF keep conditions dry Saturday and Sunday, with the GFS bringing a wave through on Monday while the ECMWF remains dry. As has been the general trend, temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Any lingering river valley fog that developed overnight will quickly dissipate by late morning. Surface high pressure centered near KPIT will keep VFR conditions through the TAF period. surface flow will remain light and generally out of the south through the period. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a cold front Thursday and Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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