Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140429 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1229 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO SPAWN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LCL FROST ADVISORY FOR GARRETT COUNTY WAS DROPPED EARLY AS DRY ADVCTN HAS CEASED LEAVING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACRS THE AREA. THESE READINGS WL DROP A CPL DEGREES AS DEW FORMS...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS PATCHY AT BEST. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE ADVISORY WAS DROPPED ALTHOUGH A PATCHY MENTION WAS PESSIMISSTICALLY MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST. BLDG HIGH PRES UNDR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER TDA. HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS WERE TWEAKED USING THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE AND SREF MEANS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANOTHER COLD NGT IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH LINGERS OVR THE AREA. HOWEVER...MDLS AGREE ON INITIATION OF WARM ADVCTN ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR AS WELL AS AN UPR CLD INCRS TWD MRNG AS JET STREAK DRAGS AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV TWD THE WRN LAKES. WITH A WARMING COLUMN OVR SRN COUNTIES...INCRSD CS OVR THE N...AND PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...SEE NO SERIOUS FROST ISSUE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE USED THE COLDER...BUT BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS FOR LOW TEMPS THAT ARE PROGGED APPROXIMATELY A DOZEN DEGREES UNDR THE NORMALS. THE GREAT LAKES SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL RTN SHWR CHCS BY MON NGT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TIMING AND THE LIKELY POPS OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA...WHERE BTR UPR DYNAMICS ARE ANTICIPATED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE UPR OH REGION...MARRED ONLY BY SOME POTENTIAL LCL FOG IMMEDIATELY IN THE PREDAWN. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... AN ADVNG CDFNT IS LIKELY TO BRING RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY NGT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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