Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220116 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 916 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... JUST A COUPLE SHRA LEFT AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. MOST OF THE CWA IS CLEARING OUT NICELY...SAVE FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHICH IS ON THE EDGE OF THE MID/HI CLOUD DECK FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. HAVE DRY POPS BY 03Z...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR THOSE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LAMP RUN. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP A BIT FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE NAM NOW THE FASTEST. OPTED TO GENERALLY IGNORE THE NAM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER. WITH THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...OPTED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS AND NO HIGHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER A LARGER UPPER TROUGH. THE NE FLOW AND COOLER 850HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS FOR THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD DISSIPATES. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL RADIATE TEMPERATURES DOWN NEARING THE DEW POINT BEFORE DAYBREAK TUES. COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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