Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310435 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1235 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A FRONT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS DOWN THE LAKE ERIE SHORE LINE BACK TOWARD A LOW IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY...THIS LOW WILL EVER-SO-SLOWLY TRACK TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL KEEP INCREASED HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES HERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD A WARM START TO THE DAY WITH SOME FOG AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY...WITH IT NOW STALLED OVER THE RIDGES THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE RIDGES TO REFLECT THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE POINTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD UP NORTH AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP STRATOCUMULUS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO SETTLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BUT STALLED BOUNDARY COULD CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH FOCUS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS MID WEEK. A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL CLOSE TO LATEST WPC PROGS. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT...RAISING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CIGS FOR KFKL AND KDUJ AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY AT KFKL...BUT SITES LESS AFFECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL SEE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT ALL LOCATIONS AS A SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND/OR PRECIPITATION AT NORTHERN SITES HELPING KEEP CONDITIONS MORE STABLE. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE INTO MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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