Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 140732 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 332 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mainly dry weather is expected early today as high pressure moves east of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase later today as a cold front approaches. A few storms could be severe, mainly across Ohio. The front will slowly cross the region tonight and Friday, with more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. Dry weather returns Saturday before another cold front brings showers Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from west to east today - A few severe storms are possible mainly across Ohio ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shortwave ridging is expected to maintain dry weather this morning. The ridging is then progged to gradually flatten through the afternoon as a shortwave trough and associated surface low pressure begin to approach from the Midwest. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase from west to east this afternoon as moisture and vorticity advection occur in WSW flow aloft. The leading edge of a low level jet is also expected across Ohio by late this afternoon, enhancing the thunderstorm potential. MU CAPE values are forecast to range from 250-500 j/kg. While instability is not optimal, the arrival of the low level jet and increasing 0-6km shear will result in a marginal potential for severe thunderstorms mainly across Ohio. Areas farther to the east should see lower amounts of instability, and a lesser severe weather risk. SPC has included most Ohio counties in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening, and have included this potential in the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook. The Upper Ohio Valley region will be in the warm sector today, with a stationary front across the Lake Erie-srn NY area. Model soundings indicate mixing at least to 850 mb today. Even with cloud cover from convection to our west increasing, high temperatures should reach around 25 degrees above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into Friday - Marginal risk for severe storms mainly across Ohio this evening - Dry and cooler Saturday - Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front ------------------------------------------------------------------- Convection should continue into the evening with increasing jet supported ascent. The continued 0-6km shear from 40-50kt, along with the limited instability, should maintain a marginal severe weather potential across Ohio into the evening. The potential for severe storms will begin to decrease as instability gradually wanes. The surface low is expected to track along the boundary to our north. This boundary will then drop slowly southward as a cold front, spreading widespread showers across the region. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected, with soundings showing elevated instability and a Showalter index below from -1 to -2. The front is expected to make very slow progress to the south, as the upper flow remains nearly parallel to the boundary. Post frontal rain is expected on Friday, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected south of the front. Precipitation is expected to slowly taper off from N-S Friday afternoon and evening as the front continues a slow progression southward. Dry and cooler weather is then expected Saturday as the front exits, and a ridge of high pressure briefly builds in. Shower chances return Saturday night as a fast moving cold front crosses the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - An active and colder pattern the first half of the week - Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday ---------------------------------------------------------------- Showers are expected to end early Sunday morning as a cold front quickly exits the region. A persistent trough across much of the eastern CONUS will then maintain scattered snow showers and colder temperatures Monday and Tuesday as individual shortwaves rotate through the trough. Generally dry weather is expected to return Wednesday as the trough begins to move east, and surface high pressure builds in. Temperatures at 850mb are expected to drop to around -10 deg C Monday into Tuesday, with below average temperatures returning.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will continue into the early afternoon time period under high pressure. Adjusted wind gusts for the early afternoon, sufficient diurnal heating should help mixed elevated wind gusts to the surface. Probabilities are higher west of PIT after 16Z for 20kt gusts as a disturbance builds over the Midwest. Clouds will start to thicken during the late morning and afternoon with a flux of warm, moist conditions under strong southerly flow. However, confidence is still remains high that ceilings will stay above 5000 feet. Remnant convection developing in the Midwest this afternoon may track into the Ohio River Valley late this evening. A few storms may be severe west of PIT; PROB30 for -TSRA has been added to cover the uncertainty of unorganized convection. A descending cold front from Lake Erie to northern PA will likely keep precipitation in the region into early Fri morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will likely follow in the wake of the front (between 06Z to 12Z Friday). .Outlook... Restrictions remain possible through early Saturday, either from cigs and/or areas of fog. VFR briefly returns later Saturday under high pressure, before another cold front returns a restriction potential Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WM NEAR TERM...WM SHORT TERM...WM LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...Hefferan/CL

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