Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141549 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1149 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO SPAWN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BLDG HIGH PRES UNDR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER TDA. HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS WERE MAINTAINED AND SPPRTD BY MRNG RAOBS/NR TERM MDL DATA. ANOTHER COLD NGT IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH LINGERS OVR THE AREA. HOWEVER...MDLS AGREE ON INITIATION OF WARM ADVCTN ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR AS WELL AS AN UPR CLD INCRS TWD MRNG AS JET STREAK DRAGS AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV TWD THE WRN LAKES. WITH A WARMING COLUMN OVR SRN COUNTIES...INCRSD CS OVR THE N...AND PROGGED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...SEE NO SERIOUS FROST ISSUE WITH THIS ISSUANCE. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE USED THE COLDER...BUT BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS FOR LOW TEMPS THAT ARE PROGGED APPROXIMATELY A DOZEN DEGREES UNDR THE NORMALS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE GREAT LAKES SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT WL RTN SHWR CHCS BY MON NGT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS DONE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TIMING AND THE LIKELY POPS OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE CNTY WRNG AREA...WHERE BTR UPR DYNAMICS AND MSTR SUPPLY ARE ANTICIPATED. COOL SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXP DIURNAL CU AND VFR CONDS THRU TNGT UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AM ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07

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