Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 261412
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected through the holiday weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minimal change needed this morning as the ongoing forecast aligns
well with ongoing trends.
A weak shortwave is progged to cross the region today. Scattered
showers are expected with its approach and passage, with scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon as instability increases with daytime
heating. Temperatures are expected to reach 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal levels. The near term forecast was adjusted using the
latest near term model guidance and observations.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weak shortwave should exit the region by this evening, ending
any shower and thunderstorm chances. Eastern CONUS ridging is
then expected to persist through the weekend. Increasing moisture
and instability in southwest flow on the western periphery of the
ridge should result in daily, mainly diurnal, shower and
thunderstorm chances. The local area is in closest proximity to
the ridge Friday, which should result in the lowest POPs in the
short term period. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal
levels are expected through the period using GFS MOS and
consensus blend guidance.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR conditions are expected to continue into Friday, and
look to be marred by only scattered convection supported by a weak
disturbance today, and another on Friday. The ongoing "vicinity
shower/thunderstorm" mention will thus be maintained, but with
tweaks using the latest high resolution model runs with GFS and
.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.