Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190530 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1230 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A short break from precipitation today as high pressure slides across the area. Rain will return to the region late tonight and Friday as the next upper level system moves through. Mild pattern continues through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No major changes to the overnight period. Spotty drizzle will continue for a time overnight until the low clouds eject to the east with the onset of warm air advection. Also included the mention of patchy fog as surface dewpoints remain high. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level heights will quickly rise today in response to deepening 500mb low swinging through the central US. Closer to the surface, warm air advection will be well under way and a weak surface high will move across Pennsylvania. The persistent low clouds will finally be shoved to the east thanks to the aforementioned warmer air overspreading the region. Once the low clouds exit, expect to see sunshine through high clouds, with the amount of sun increasing from west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours. Temperatures will respond nicely with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Latest models are coming into good agreement on slowing down the onset of rain tonight, as the upper level low over the Central US will weaken and spin further to the north by Friday morning. An elongated warm front will swing through the area late tonight and Friday morning as a series of shortwaves, on the extremity of the main trough, rush through Friday morning. Have slowed the onset of showers from the previous forecast and have also brought a faster end to the precipitation Friday afternoon. By Friday afternoon, the main moisture stream will have moved to the northeast, with the trough axis following closely on its heels. Warm air advection will continue Friday night and Saturday as the flow from the southwest strengthens. Forecast soundings are indicating the atmosphere slowly drying out Saturday, which will allow for some decrease in cloud cover. Temperatures Saturday will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Sunday and track eastward into early Monday, before turning toward the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Ensembles are in descent agreement with the timing of this system, so a blend of guidance will be used for the extended period. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR cigs will persist overnight into early Thursday morning as weak high pressure builds across the region. By mid morning low levels should mix out to allow for VFR. West winds near 10 KTs tonight will become light and variable. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with low pressure Friday, and again on Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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