Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191137 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 737 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Generally warm and humid conditions will prevail for the next week across the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No changes necessary for the morning update. The mix of stratus and fog with slowly erode, giving way to increasing high clouds across the area. Previous Discussion... High clouds are starting to slowly advance eastward into the majority of the area vis-a-vis convective blow off. The wave responsible for this convection to our west will be rapidly weakening as it drives into the teeth of the resident high pressure over the area over the next day or so. Multi- model projections suggest some showers should wander into central Ohio by Tuesday afternoon, however east of there the ridge should hold sway fairly convincingly. Thus, realistically almost the entirety of our area should remain largely dry other than a renegade shower that would try to develop given the moist boundary layer in place. With said moist boundary layer, cumulus development should again be fairly efficient once insolation gets going. Thus, cumulus over the eastern CWA overlaid with the high clouds moving in from the west will yield no better than partly sunny skies anywhere in the CWA through the majority of the day. However, given a very warm start and continued warm advection off the deck, highs should largely rise back into the 80s for most locations. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... While the front continues to struggle to advance eastward through tonight and into Wednesday, the attendant mid-level circulation and weakening cold pool will give it a whirl on Wednesday. GFS/EC guidance suggest it should start to slink SE as is weakens rapidly from afternoon into evening, and the bulk of the mid-level cooling is likely to remain to the SW of the area as it transits SE and falls apart. With that in mind, a chance/slight chance mention of rain showers will remain in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon/evening, especially over eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia. With the passage of the wave Wednesday, high pressure will again resume control with steady warming into the latter half of the week. Fries && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Deepening troughing over the western CONUS and amplified ridging over the eastern CONUS will yield strong warm advection into the Ohio Valley through the weekend and beyond. This will be especially true as surface high pressure slowly trudges from directly overhead to ever-so-slightly east of the area by early next week. This will increase mixing potential, decrease any easterly moisture fetch into the area over the ridges, and yield a surge in 850 mb temperatures toward +17 to +19C for several days. As a result, highs in the lower elevations will jump at least toward the mid 80s, if not higher, and even in the higher terrain, upper 70s will be possible. With high pressure in control, and ridging amplifying overhead, no rainfall is anticipated during the long term or beyond. Fries && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Any remaining fog should mix out by 14z. VFR conditions with diurnal CU and increasing mid/high clouds are expected for the rest of the TAF period as a weak upper trough approaches. Clouds could limit fog potential again tonight/Wed morning. .Outlook... Other than local morning fog, no widespread restrictions expected through Sat with building ridging.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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