Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200415 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1215 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems will keep periodic rain chances in the forecast through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Update mainly to POPs to account for current convection moving east and south of Pittsburgh, while next shortwave quickly moves southeast across Ohio. This will spread additional showers across areas mainly from Pittsburgh south into the early morning hours. With clouds and showers temperatures will stay quite mild overnight. Warm advection will increase later today as heights rise across the Upper Ohio valley ahead of closed mid level low moving into the northern Great Lakes. Still expect enough instability for chance POPs for showers or storms with moist low levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front will cross Thursday night but unfavorable overnight FROPA timing and waning instability should help limit potential for severe storms. The SPC marginal outlook still appears reasonable at this time. Temperatures will return to seasonal levels by Friday. On Saturday low pressure from the Central Plains will head east, with showers developing especially south of I-70.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Models are trending farther south with low pressure Sunday, but for now no major changes to cool temperatures and the chance for showers. Building ridging should return dry and warmer weather by early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A surface boundary and crossing shortwave should continue to result in periodic showers overnight, and some weakening thunderstorms S of PIT. MVFR to local IFR is expected in the precip. Otherwise, moisture pooling near the surface boundary should result in MVFR ceilings from PIT N, with IFR for FKL/DUJ. This boundary should lift N later this morning with a return to VFR. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with building instability, but the lack of a trigger should preclude a TAF mention. MVFR restrictions in widespread showers and possible thunderstorms are expected tonight with a crossing cold front. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with weekend low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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