Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180152 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 852 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CWA...AND AS FLOW TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE MOIST LAYER BEGINNING TO INTERSECT THE LOWER PORTION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD START TO BECOME A BIT MORE COMMON TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MANAGING TO INCREASE COVERAGE ON KCLE THIS EVENING QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY. AS SUCH...A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE SEEMS A VERY GOOD BET. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWS STILL LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AS WELL AS IN THE RIDGES AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID...ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND POOR LIFT ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF RIMING SHOULD YIELD POOR QPF AND NO BETTER THAN CLIMO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. AS A RESULT...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...REALLY ONLY ABOVE A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES... PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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