Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241443 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1043 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A WEAK EXITING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THE LOWER LEVEL STRATOCU...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY OR SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE RUNNING UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE SHEARED TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IN PROXIMITY WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP IN SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW...WILL JUST CLIP THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF MY AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE 850 LOW...WILL DRIVE MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A DRIER ATMOSPHERE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...PUMPING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND CLOUDS DECREASING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REALLY RISE. TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND EXITING SURFACE LOW WILL BEING TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SEEING SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WHERE THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY GO. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY. TIMING AND LOCATION WILL NEED TO BE CLARIFIED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. WARM TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY TAKING CONTROL BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO ALL PORTS. VFR CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FOR MOST SITES AND MVFR CIGS RETURNING. THOUGH IT IS JUST AFTER THE VALID PERIOD OF THESE FORECASTS...A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT ONSET AROUND KFKL AND KDUJ. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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