Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181544 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1144 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SFC LOW PRES OVR ERN KY...WITH A STNRY FNT EXTENDING INTO SRN PA...WL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHWR AND PSBL TSTM ACTIVITY TDA. KEPT HIGHEST POPS ALG AND S OF THE PA BORDER WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED...TAPERING OFF TO THE N. KEPT MOST AREAS N OF I 76 DRY WITH DRY AIR RMNG IN PLACE. MRNG RAOBS SHOW MID LVL WRMG...WHICH SHOULD HELP LMT INSTBY/TSTM DVLPMNT. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGH TEMPS JUST BLO SEASONAL AVGS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO DISSIPATE. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WAVE WILL REACH FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN MCS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH AN OVERALL SLOW MOVING PATTERN...SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT TO CLEAR THE AREA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH. TIMING AT THIS POINT IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRINGING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL SEEING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SO FORECASTING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTIVITY IS DONE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CONDITIONS RMN VARIABLE THIS MRNG ACRS THE UPR OH VALLEY WITH NRLY STATIONARY FRONT IN VCNTY OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR AND LOW PRES MOVG ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SPEWING MID LVL MSTR ACRS ITS NRN FLANK...WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS OVR SRN PORTS. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG AND ST NR FKL AND DUJ WL IMPROVE AFTR DAYBREAK WITH GENL VFR ANTICIPATED...WHICH MAY BE MARRED BY SCT SHWRS NR PORTS S OF PIT. OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.