Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181858 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 258 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A decaying cold front could bring isolated showers Wednesday. Otherwise, warm, dry, sunshine sum up the balance of the work week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Baroclinic approaching from the west will encounter a brick wall in the form of a upper level high pressure as it tries to move east tonight. Isolated daytime showers in a weak convective initiation using terrain as a trigger will dissipate with sunset. Patchy fog will once again develop in river valleys and tried to keep timing very similar to what occurred last night. Once fog burns off look for another warm afternoon with daytime cu firing up by late morning when trigger temps are attained. BUFR soundings show enough of a cap between H7-H5 to keep the forecast precip free. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The main weather impacts of the entire forecast reside in this time period. The ever slow moving cold front dissipates, however a mid level shortwave trough crosses the region Wednesday. With dewpoints still in the 60s, associated mid level cooling, and daytime heating, scattered showers are possible during the afternoon and evening over parts of eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, and the mountains of West Virginia/ Maryland. There is enough of a consensus from several operation models and hints with low probability of a hundredth of an inch from ensembles to include pops in the forecast over the aforementioned location. Any activity will wane with the loss of heating Wednesday night. 588dm H5 anti-cyclone re-establishes itself over the mid atlantic. Despite a northerly trajectory of low level air, daytime highs Thursday won`t cool off and we will keep our 80F streak alive at most locations. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights: - Continued Above Normal Temps - No Rain Predicted - Ten Straight Days above 80F+ /16th-25th/ possible @ PIT Mid level ridging remains in place over the eastern United States, as it will be for most of the work week. This brings a broken record forecast of patchy predawn fog especially in deeper valleys giving way to a mostly sunny sky. Each consecutive day we are dry the probability of fog will decrease given lower surface moisture, but it will be offset by longer September nights. H8 temps hover around 17C for the entire long term. Energy block method yields widespread lower to mid 80 values save for the mountains where 70s will be common. Elected to go with guidance that does not contain bias corrected grids since we are in a transition from below normal to an above normal stretch. Any impacts from Maria will be beyond the scope of this seven day forecast even mid and high clouds associated with the storm. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The cycle over the previous 24 hours is expected to continue through the next 24 hours. An isolated shower or two will be possible near DUJ and LBE, with VFR conditions continuing into the overnight hours. All terminals experienced at least one IFR observation last night, with many sites remaining at LIFR visibilities for several hours. Restrictions will ease by 14-15Z, with diurnal CU expected once again tomorrow. .Outlook... Patchy morning fog restrictions are possible through Sat with ridging in place.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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