Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241258 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 858 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very-humid conditions over the region today with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through early Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A minor update will be made shortly to reflect a slightly-faster onset of low PoPs as isolated convection is evident on radar in and approaching the forecast area. Otherwise, no big changes are being made at the moment. Previous discussion follows... Another shortwave trough sweeps through this afternoon which will keep in the risk for showers and storms. Coverage of the activity looks to be limited as the strongest large-scale ascent will be well to the north of the region, and drier air aloft will continue to mix to the surface, limiting surface instability. The passing wave also will provide a generous cu field, which will help to keep temperatures below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Upper-level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface high will build into the Great Lakes. This evolution finally will bring a stretch of dry weather and sunshine for Tues/Wed.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A deep upper trough and associated surface cold front will settle south from Ontario on Thursday, bringing the threat for showers/storms during the afternoon and evening. The forecast for Friday into the weekend gets a bit muddy. If the aforementioned wave progresses into the Southeast, then the weekend is shaping up to be spectacular, with dry conditions and highs around 80. Some model solutions open the upper wave up across the Appalachians, keeping the threat for clouds and precipitation (especially over the eastern ridges) into Friday and Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Most ports will see low IFR cigs to begin the forecast. However, as atmospheric mixing ensues, the stratus layer will begin to dissipate as well as any fog. Improvement to VFR is expected at all ports by late morning. The very slow-moving boundary will sag south today, reinvigorating showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly south of FKL and DUJ. .OUTLOOK... VFR is expected to prevail toward midweek as high pressure builds in.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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