Area Forecast Discussion
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528 FXUS61 KPBZ 261603 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1203 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions will persist until low pressure brings rain to the region tonight and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Added some low PoPs to the western counties for spotty light rain falling out of mid-deck, some of which may not be reaching the ground given the dry low levels. Hi-res models continue to indicate focus turning more to area north of Pittsburgh with time and will continue with that for now, but further modification to afternoon PoPs may be necessary. Minor changes otherwise.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will track from Chicago to Lake Erie and up to Lake Ontario tonight and Thursday, and will swing a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon. Previous PoP forecast looks on track, with the higher probabilities and qpf generally over the northern half of the area. A non-diurnal temperature curve will see temperatures decreasing Wednesday evening, then slowly rising overnight. While the bulk of precipitation will move east Thursday afternoon, colder air moving into the region will allow for scattered lake-enhanced showers to develop, although there may not be a long period as winds become northerly and inversions quickly lower. Any lingering showers over the north and east, will end Friday morning. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Still a bit of model uncertainty with a system moving along the US-Canadian border through the weekend, so have strayed very little from previous forecast. High pressure will move across the eastern United States Monday and Tuesday, yielding dry weather. Saturday and Tuesday should have temperatures a few degrees above normal, with seasonal temperatures Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Patchy fog of varying intensity will burn off by mid to late morning. The afternoon and evening will feature VFR conditions, albeit with increasing clouds. ESE winds will pick up later today. Showers will start to develop from the NW as well, likely advancing to the SE after the end of the TAF period, with MVFR flight conditions developing. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will come late Wednesday with low pressure advancing out of the midwest. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.