Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230231 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 931 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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930PM UPDATE...FOR LATEST UPDATE...UPDATED TEMPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LAST OF THE FLURRIES SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL DRYING CONTINUES. REST OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY LOCK CLOUDS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY LIMITING THE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA...BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED RELATIVELY GOOD CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT IN THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE LATEST GFS...EC...NAM GUIDANCE ALL SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. GARRETT...PRESTON...AND TUCKER COUNTIES STILL LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A LINE RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM ARMSTRONG COUNTY AND SW TO ZANESVILLE. NO PLANS FOR ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN OVERALL IN PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SEEM TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ITS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LESS LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE TROUGH UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY PASS OVER SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL PASS QUICKLY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE AND ALTHOUGH BRIEF...EXPECT A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME PERIOD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WHERE WE COULD SEE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SOLID AMOUNTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDERNEATH INVERSION ALOFT. OCCASIONAL IFR STILL POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECT ALL SITES TO ACHIEVE VFR BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE STRATOCU DECK BREAK UP LATE...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ROLLING IN. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN RESTRICTIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT ON SATURDAY...AND FOR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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