Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231034 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 534 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will continue until the passage of a Saturday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No updates needed early this morning as the forecast remains right on track. Precious discussion follows.. Another mild night across the forecast area in the current warm advection regime. Overnight lows will largely remain above 50F with extensive cloud coverage and no anticipated change to dewpoints. There will be a chance of scattered showers today as a weak frontal boundary sags south towards the forecast area...limited mainly to northern zones as the boundary is progged to stall in in the vicinity of the I-80 corridor before lifting back to the north as a warm front. Model guidance continues to suggest the possibility of a few thunderstorms in the mix as well, however, chances are too low to include in the forecast as warm air aloft is more likely to keep any activity capped off.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Any remaining shower activity that develops across northern zones will diminish this evening as the warm front lifts north. With the forecast area well withing the warm sector, temperatures on Friday look to be the warmest yet since beginning this prolonged period of well above normal temperatures. The current forecast includes record breaking temperatures at all climate locations and dry conditions. Friday night southerly winds will increase as the cold front approaches and this along with plenty of cloud coverage will likely result in record high minimums overnight. There is higher confidence in timing of frontal passage...not pushing it back later and keeping the inherited forecast as-is as the modTrends tool is finally showing a flat linear regression slope regarding the eastern CONUS trough. The front will cross Saturday morning into early afternoon with The timing of the passage would still not seem to favor much of a severe threat given the expected lack of buoyancy, but with strong flow and plenty of shear to enhance updrafts, any storms may need to be monitored for wind gusts. In any case winds will be strong ahead and behind the front through early Sunday...with isolated gusts up to 40mph possible.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on Monday before having surprisingly good agreement on Wednesday. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday, high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s once again a possibility by the first day of March. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Any remaining VFR should deteriorate to MVFR with occasional IFR through the morning with increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching surface front. Mixing should improve ceiling levels by afternoon though MVFR is still expected. Scattered showers are possible this afternoon N of PIT as the front sinks further S. Evening/overnight improvement is anticipated with passage of the supporting shortwave and the shift of the surface front back to the north. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Friday night and early Saturday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Thu Fri -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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