Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011029 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 629 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG AND NORTH OF I 80...UNDER MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WHICH IS MAINTAINING INSTABILITY. PREVIOUS... SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION. USED A NAM/HRRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY THIS EVENING. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LIFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ZZV AND MGW...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST BY LATE MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FKL/DUJ TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL ADD THIS MENTION TO ALL 12Z TAFS. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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