Area Forecast Discussion
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960 FXUS61 KPBZ 162034 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 334 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A brief period of dry weather is expected tonight before a quick moving system brings snow to most locations Saturday afternoon and evening. Next week should be warm and wet.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Precipitation will come to an end across southeastern counties in the next few hours, with rain changing to snow in the higher elevations. Tonight and Saturday morning should be dry, with a quick moving system beginning to affect most of the region Saturday afternoon. Although low pressure will stay well to our southeast, precipitation should extend northwest across many locations. Most locations will have rain during the day, but precipitation could initially begin as snow. Temperatures will drop into the upper teens and 20s tonight, allowing any leftover rain to potentially freeze on area roadways overnight. On Saturday highs will only rise into the 30s, with locations near Morgantown lucky to reach 40 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Most precipitation should come to an end Saturday evening, although some showers could persist towards sunrise. Most locations will receive at least some accumulating snow. The only location that looks like it could reach headline amounts of snow is Garrett County, but confidence in snow amounts remains low enough that no advisory has been issued at this time. Dry weather is forecast for Sunday and most of Sunday night, with the bulk of precipitation waiting until Monday to move into the area from the west. Temperatures will be on the rise through the period, with highs in the 40s on Sunday and 50s/60s on Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Upper level pattern should allow for the chance of precipitation to continue through much of the week. The warmest temperatures should occur on Tuesday before a cold front moves through on Wednesday, with locations from Pittsburgh south likely to reach 70 degrees ahead of the front.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Rain is slowly shifting sewd as a cold front advances. As the low- level lapse rate steepens amid cold air advection, the widespread clouds will give way to broken stratocu before subsidence helps erode all low clouds this evening. Ongoing restrictions will ease by early evening, with light wind and scattered cirrus expected overnight amid building high pressure. Clouds will increase late Saturday afternoon as moisture surges nwd ahead of an approaching disturbance. Rain/snow may impact srn terminals late in the current/next TAF period with flight restrictions expected. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions will continue Saturday night and again Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Although heavy rain is winding down, runoff will lead to continued river flooding beyond the period of rain. River Flood Warnings have been issued along much of the Monongahela and Ohio Rivers. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for OHZ069. PA...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for PAZ031-075-076. WV...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for WVZ004-012-021- 509>514. && $$

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