-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132312
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
712 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MAIN UPDATE WAS FOR SKY TRENDS AND TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS ARE ALREADY SLACKING OFF WITH BEST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL WELL WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

ON MONDAY COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL WEST ACROSS INDIANA AND
OHIO WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING DEEP
MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LIMITED
CAPE WILL BE ELEVATED...AND WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ONLY A
WEAK CHANCE FOR THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL COOLING WITH SHOWERS LATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES BY 00Z TUES. BY THAT
TIME THE ANAFRONT WILL HAVE SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES WELL AHEAD INTO
OUR AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH THE
MID-LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MON. WITH ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED ALONG THE FRONT...ALIGNED
NEAR 100 POPS WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES W TO E.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT TAKING US
FROM THE RECENT SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES BACK TO TEMPERATURES MORE
REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY. 12Z NAM HAS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING MORE THAN
20C IN 24HRS WITH A MINIMUM NEAR -14C WEDS MORNING. WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY WEDS MORNING AS THE COLD LLVL
TEMPS ARE PUSHING GUIDANCE LOWER AND LOWER WITH EACH ITERATION. HAVE SIDED
WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS AM STILL BANKING ON CLOUDS MOVING
OUT QUICK ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES FALL OFF WEDS MORNING IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...DID NOT FULLY DIVE IN AND FOLLOW MET
GUIDANCE...WHICH BRING OUR NRN ZONES INTO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE PROVIDING A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD TO CONT INTO MON AFTN. A LLVL JET WL DVLP OVRNGT
INTO MON MRNG AHD OF AN APRCHG CDFNT...SO INCLUDED A PD OF LLVL WND
SHEAR AT ALL PORTS UNTIL MXG BRINGS GUSTY SW WNDS BY MD MRNG. SCT
SHWRS WL MOVE INTO THE RGN AS THE FNT NEARS DURG THE DAY...WITH MORE
WDSPRD RAINFALL AND RSTRNS MON NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD AS THE CDFNT CROSSES MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN VFR
RTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$