Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171922 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 322 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WILL DIMINISH GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD WITH NO RAIN IN THE REGION. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE OHIO-KENTUCKY BORDER...RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE LAST TWO DAYS IN NORTHERNMOST PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL...THE TIME SPAN IS NOW COVERED BY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WHICH SHOW THE RAINFALL MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE MOVED THE LINE FOR LIKELY POPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT WAS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT. STILL EXPECT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TO THE NORTH WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME RAIN WILL PERSIST IN THE RIDGES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING EVEN INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. STILL SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PTN OF GENL ZONAL FLOW...WITH SHRTWVS CROSSING WITHIN...IS PROGGED THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITH AN OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...POSITION DETAILS...PTN MAGNITUDE...ETC...HAVE MAINTAINED NR CLIMO CHC POPS WITH NR AVG TEMPS. BY WEEKS END...SUFFICIENT MDL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN DISPLAYED IN DVLPMNT OF A MS VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES RIDGE AXIS WITH AN E COAST TROF...TO FORECAST DIMINISHED POPS AND A HEALTHY W TO E TEMP GRADIENT AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT SCENARIO. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PORTS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY WILL BE HUNG UP ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEAK FLOW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS EARLY ALLOWING FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SOME MID DECK AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW IFR FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL. FOG SHOULD LIFT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GENERAL VFR MONDAY EXCEPT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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