Area Forecast Discussion
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632 FXUS61 KPBZ 190543 AAE AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 143 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will continue for the rest of the week. Thunderstorm chances will escalate on Thursday and continue periodically into the weekend as a series of disturbances crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No major near term changes were needed for the midnight update as a seasonably warm and humid airmass has settled over the region under shortwave ridging aloft. Warmth (temperature about 5 degrees above average) and humidity (dewpoints in the upper 60s/70) can be expected again today as overall subsidence under ridging aloft is maintained between Mid Atlantic States and Great Lakes troughing. A slight chance for thunderstorms was introduced though for the I 80 corridor where models indicate encroachment of a late day shortwave. This feature with possible lake breeze reinforcement may be sufficient to penetrate the mid level warmth entrenched over the Upper Allegheny region. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A more substantial shortwave is progged across the northern periphery of the Southern CONUS ridge on Thursday. That system is expected to bring the next chance for thunderstorms to all locations, and could pose a severe threat given the warmth, humidity/resultant CAPE and improved mid level flow. Models indicate a repetitive pattern for Friday and Saturday, albeit with timing and track differences, so the general chance PoPs were maintained along with ongoing warmth and humidity given those differences and boundary placement questions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Minimal changes were made to the extended forecast. A series of shortwaves will continue to cross the region, with more coverage indicated on Saturday and Sunday. Tuesday could be the first day with the potential for dry weather areawide, but with the unpredictability in the pattern, this could certainly change. Seasonably warm temperatures will ease off slightly through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Abundant low-level moisture and clear sky/light wind will support morning/valley fog at the usual terminals (LBE/ZZV/HLG) and sporadically at MGW. This fog will lift by 13Z, with VFR conditions thereafter through the TAF period. Generally light W/NW winds can be expected. An isolated tstm is not out of the question mid-late afternoon near KFKL as a lake breeze may be sufficient to overcome the substantial mid-level inversion that will otherwise limit deep convection. Coverage/probability are low, so this potential is not included in the KFKL TAF at this time. .OUTLOOK... Broad restrictions are not expected through the remainder of the week, although the chances will increase for morning fog and diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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