-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192220
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
620 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STLT/MESO DATA SHOWS AN UPR LVL WAVE OVR CNTRL WV. THIS WL CONT TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THRU MON. ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS S OF PIT SHOULD
QUICKLY DSPT AFT SUNSET. NEAR TERM MDL DATA SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DVLPG AREAS N-E OF PIT TWD MRNG AS WELL. WL KEEP CHC POPS
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS MAINLY E-SE OF PIT MON AS THE UPR WV BEGINS TO
EXIT TO THE E. MDL PROGS SHOW INSTAB SHOULD BE MINIMAL MON. WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS FCST FOR MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DSPTG MON EVE AS THE UPR WAVE CONTS TO
MOVE OUT. CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS RETURNS TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH SOME UPR
AND MID LVL RIDGING AND LACK OF A GOOD TRIGGER SHOULD HELP LMT
ACTIVITY. TEMPS WL CONT MUCH ABV AVG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTRICT REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.A COLD FRONT MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THE RISK OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND `
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS WILL TEETER ON MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING ABOVE 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR CIGS AND LIGHT SE WINDS. FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS
SEVERAL TERMINALS. THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE. RAN
WITH IFR AT DUJ AND FKL...OTHERWISE BROUGHT CIGS TO MVFR AT MOST
THEN LIFT THEM BY 14Z. ONCE ANY STRATUS LIFTS LOOK FOR VFR WX.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF IFR WEATHER WILL BE WED AND THU IN
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07