Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211302 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 902 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM AS OF THIS UPDATE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DIURNAL TRENDS AND UPPED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY ALONG THE RIDGES BASED ON THE LATEST HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... PTCHY CLDS WL CONT THIS MRNG UNDER A WKNG SHRTWV. ADDNL DIURNAL CU IS EXPD TO DVLP TDA...THOUGH ANY SHWR/TSTM CHCS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO TERRAIN ENHANCED ACTIVITY E-SE OF PIT. RECENT RAOB PLOTS AND NR TERM RAP/NAM MDL PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW WRM MD LVL AIR TDA RESULTING IN CAPPING...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE CNVCTN ELSW. HIGHS SHOULD BE JUST ABV THE SEASONAL AVG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BKN VFR DECK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES CLEAR FOR A TIME EXPECT MVFR FOG WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING SCT CU INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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