Area Forecast Discussion
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227 FXUS61 KPBZ 160156 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 856 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather and seasonal temperatures overnight before light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front. More widespread rain is expected on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Weak impulse moving just south of the CWA managed to spread some very light rain into the ridges of WV/MD during the past couple of hours. Expect the next few hours to remain dry. Towards 12Z, southwest flow and increasing isentropic lift could push very light precipitation towards the Mason-Dixon Line. Slight chance PoPs are still appropriate for this as hi-res models are mostly dry. Any precipitation could be in the form of very light freezing rain along its northern periphery. Chances are too small for a headline or even an HWO mention at this time. Otherwise, have dropped temperatures a few degrees overnight, based on quicker cooling in the thinner and higher clouds across much of the area. Expect temperature drop to steady out towards morning in slow warm advection late.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low precipitation chances will return overnight across southern zones and spread north into and Monday but expect the majority of the day to be dry. In general, precipitation still looks to be primarily rain but there still is a chance some areas may see freezing rain initially, especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD. Low confidence in occurrence precludes an HWO mention at this time. There will be a much better chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday with increasing shortwave support and the surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes. Rain chances will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough crosses the area. Warm advection will result in temperatures climbing to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prevailing VFR is expected as high clouds begin to spread northward in advance of a deepening low pressure over the central Plains. Removed mention of vcsh on Monday, as latest model data is showing a drier atmosphere, although do expect mvfr cigs to develop at ZZV and MGW during the afternoon. Wind will remain light with surface high shifting eastward. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions can be expected with a warm front late Monday and a Tue/Wed cdfnt. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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