Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300747 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 347 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH RIDING THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION LARGELY BEYOND OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND WITH A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PROGGED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROGGING RELATIVELY WEAK BULK SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE DID GET MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING THAN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND LONGWAVE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP AFTER SUNSET. .OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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