Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240132 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 832 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BITTER COLD CONTINUES TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BASICALLY ALL OF THE LOGIC FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL HOLDS TRUE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR OVER THE CWA IS A BIT CONCERNING. WITH THE SUNSET...STRONG DECOUPLING IS LIKELY WALL-TO-WALL WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THIS SHOULD TANK THE WINDS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER A TOTAL DEARTH OF LAYER RH AND CLOUD POTENTIAL COMBINED WITH STRONG INVERSIONS AND SNOW PACK WILL ASSUREDLY LEAD TO ABSURDITY IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES. WITH THIS AIR MASS LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE -30S WERE RECORDED IN MICHIGAN. WHILE NUMBERS THAT LOW ARE QUITE UNLIKELY...A FEW -20S IN THE FAVORED COLD SPOTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DO SEEM LIKELY. THE FORECAST LOWS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...TO VALUES WELL BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER ON A LOCAL SCALE...EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AS MIXING INCREASES IN THE MORNING...IT DOES SEEM THERE IS A WINDOW WHERE WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET. BECAUSE OF THIS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IT. REGARDLESS OF THE WIND...A DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MANY AREAS. THE 18Z GUIDANCE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF CLOUDS AND WEAK LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS KEEPS THE WHOLE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...EVEN WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WERE THUS RESTRICTED TO TUESDAY EVENING...JUST BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. THIS MEANS ANOTHER DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR THE REGION...SOMETHING WE ARE NOT REALLY USED TO...UNTIL THE GREAT LAKES BECOME LARGELY FROZEN...AS THEY ARE NOW. FRIES THE RECORD LOW IN PITTSBURGH FOR FEBRUARY 24TH IS -2 SET IN 1914.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHC POPS FOR A COATING OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER A GREAT DEAL FOR WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WENT WELL BELOW MODEL MOS FORECAST LOWS AGAIN AS ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BY LATE DAY. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE TEENS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HPC GOING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLES DURING THIS PERIOD AND TEND TO AGREE. AFTER A WEAK UPPER OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO /ONLY/ 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO GET MORE INVOLVED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A TRICKY CALL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE...PERHAPS APPROACHING NORMAL BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE WITH A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT...AND WITH A LATE THURSDAY DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF PIT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059. PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ013- 014-020>022-029-031-073-075. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015- 016-023-074-076. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-022-023-041. && $$

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