Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 311626 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1226 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SW OHIO WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE I 80 CORRIDOR IN NW PA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SW PA. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH SOME MARGINAL SHEAR DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THIS SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PROGGED INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC SET UP. DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR ANY TRAINING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...THOUGH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD DROP BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...EVIDENT BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY TO BELOW 0.5" NORTH OF PITTSBURGH BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN CUT- OFF LOW WILL HOLD NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE DRIER NORTHERN AIR AND THE MOIST SOUTHERN AIR SHOULD AID SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RELEGATED PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STALL ON ITS PUSH SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN CUT-OFF LOW TRIES TO DISLODGE...TO NO AVAIL. THIS SETUP WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND HIGH TERRAIN OF PA/WV/MD AND DRY AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW WEEK A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NORTH...AND AN UPPER-LOW PRESSURE SOUTH...SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO GIVE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL ADVANCE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BACK TO THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...DESPITE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. WARMING TREND WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CROSSING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASEING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RESTRICTION POTENTIAL COULD RETURN BY MID WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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