Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240114 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 914 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WITH 915PM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...GOING WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS COULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FROST ADVISORY. ALSO THREW SOME MINIMAL SKY COVER BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MIDLEVEL RIDGING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FROM SUNSET THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. CONCERNING FROST POTENTIAL...THINK THAT DRIER UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...WARRANT GOING A LITTLE BELOW THE MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT FOR FORECAST LOWS. THIS PUTS MUCH OF THE GROWING SEASON AREA IN THE MID 30S. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK...HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF THE GROWING SEASON AREA. EXCEPTION IS WETZEL/MARION/MONONGALIA COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST...BUT WILL STILL MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THIS AREA. LIKE HIGH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRIER DEWPOINTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN AS THE NEXT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SLOWER SOLUTION MAY BE THE WAY TO GO WHEN ANALYZING THE ENSEMBLE DATA. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF MONDAY DRY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...NORTHERLY WIND AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A NON- DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...WITH POPS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL FLUCTUATE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS...WHICH WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IN GENERAL HAVE TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT POSSIBLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO CARRY POPS BASED ON A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...WITH A LITTLE MORE INFLUENCE TAKEN FROM THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ020-021-029- 031-073-075. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004. && $$

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