Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 312208 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 608 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIMITED THEMSELVES WELL SOUTH ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THUS HAVE MADE COSMETIC CHANGES TO POPS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND FORCING...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD HELP PROMOTE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.