Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131741 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 141 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AFTER A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT FOLLOWED THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION. IN THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE TWO CLOUDY PERIODS...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO SKYROCKET UP TO NEARLY THE FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN...ADDITIONAL RAPID UPWARD MOBILITY OF THE MERCURY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. AS SUCH...FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK OK. THE AFTERNOON UPDATE BASICALLY JUST KICKED SKY FORECAST EXPECTATIONS A BIT UP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TIMING ISSUES CONCERNING THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF FRONT IS RATHER DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. THIS COULD PRODUCE A SITUATION WHERE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING WILL DISSIPATE/EVAPORATE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MONDAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 4000FT WHICH WILL EASILY TAP INTO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ON MONDAY WITH LI`S AROUND -1 TO -2 AND CAPES OF 200 TO 300 J/KG. THE K INDEX DOES RISE INTO THE 30S LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MU-CAPE RISING ABOVE 500 J/KG AND THE BULK SHEAR AT AROUND 40KTS. PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MONDAY AND LIKELY HAMPER OUR ABILITY TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. HOWEVER...WITH A SOMEWHAT DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE AND PLENTY OF SHEAR STILL THINK THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER... ALLOWING FOR A RISE IN SURFACE TEMPS...COULD AID IN PRODUCING SOME ISO STRONG STORMS. WIDE SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND SHEAR VALUES DECREASE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE PROVIDING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE SSW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BEFORE COMING BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE EXPD WITH A CROSSING CDFNT MON AND TUE.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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