Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141143 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 743 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain warm and dry weather through early Sunday. A crossing cold front should result in showers Sunday afternoon, and much cooler temperatures early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Increased the fog coverage, and adjusted sky cover for the pre dawn update. Previous...Dry weather is expected today under shortwave ridging. A moist boundary layer in SE upslope flow should maintain stratus across the higher terrain of PA and MD this morning, before the flow veers to the S and the stratus erodes. Elsewhere, patchy fog should quickly mix out after sunrise. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather should persist through early Sunday as the ridge slides E. A trough advancing out of the Midwest is progged to drive a cold front across the area Sunday afternoon, with showers expected. Mentioned just a slight chance of thunderstorms with limited instability. Models vary by several hours on the speed of the front. Timed likely POPs in the forecast close to FROPA timing of the SREF, which was a compromise of the operational models. Gusty winds are also expected Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching front. Cool NW flow and a crossing upper trough should maintain shower chances mainly N of PIT Monday. Patchy frost is possible Monday night, though uncertainty precludes a forecast mention. After a warm weekend, temperatures should fall to 5-10 degrees below average by early next week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A large area of high pressure across much of the Ern CONUS should maintain dry and gradually warming weather through the week. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Valley fog impacting HLG and FKL will burn off this morning with some brief restrictions possible elsewhere. Stratus will dissipate as the wind shifts to the south, so improvement to VFR is expected everywhere today. Conditions should remain VFR through the rest of the period. ESE wind will shift to the south and stay under 10kts today. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is expected with a Sunday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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