Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010141 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 941 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL BACK IN NW OHIO. MINOR RIPPLES IN THE PASSING SHALLOW MIDLEVEL TROUGH HAVE MANAGED TO SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHRA IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PIT/ILN SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ABOVE 12K FEET...AND THUS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND WEAK FOR THE MOST PART. A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD SKIRT MERCER/VENANGO OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ALSO UPDATED THE SKY COVER FORECAST. REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WERE MORE OR LESS ON TRACK AND UPDATED THESE SLIGHTLY WITH LAMP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODEL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY. CONSIDERING YESTERDAYS 12Z MODELS SPED UP FRONTAL TIMING WHILE LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODELS DELAYED THE FRONTAL TIMING...WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO PRECIP TIMING EVEN THOUGH TODAYS 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z MODELS. AT THIS POINT...SREF CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT PASSES ON MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE WITH SEASONAL VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE TROUGH SHOULD BRING PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH DID ADJUST GUIDANCE POPS DOWNWARD WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN QUESTION. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN CLDS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED MOISTURE. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE NEAR ZZV. TOMORROW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN DIURNAL CU AND WNW WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNTS GUSTING TO 15 KNTS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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