Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241338 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 938 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SNEAK OVER THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE INTO AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 70 DEGREES IS ATTAINABLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY...AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONGER MIXING WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE THE STRONG DIURNAL FALLS WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER START TO MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONGER MIXING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY SURPASSING +12 TO +13C PER THE NAM WILL MEAN A FAR WARMER AFTERNOON ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY. GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH STILL ABUNDANT INSOLATION AND STRONG MIXING...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SEEM A VERY REASONABLE EXPECTATION. WHILE MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE EARLY WEEK...A MID-LEVEL LOW SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...HOWEVER AN UNFAVORABLE TIMING IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS WELL AS AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING RETURNING. LAYER RH PROFILES DECREASE MARKEDLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUN TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EVEN POST- FRONTAL. FRIES && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SHEARING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF IT. THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME AROUND SEEMS TO BE THAT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...WITH SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVEN IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM LOOKS NOW TO SHEAR OUT CONTINUOUSLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...SUCH THAT RIDGING AGAIN BECOMES THE DOMINANT FACTOR INTO THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS DRIER WEATHER WILL AGAIN MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA. FRIES && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. CL .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$

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