Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020535 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1235 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Scattered sprinkles or flurries overnight as cold advection continues under closed low moving across eastern Canada. Southwest flow will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers well north through friday, with only scattered snow showers north of I-80 and in the ridges. Cold advection and clouds will keep a small diurnal range in place for temperatures, which will stay mainly in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As winds shift to the northwest Friday night, coverage of snow showers will slightly increase, but any snow accumulations Friday night into Saturday should remain minimal. As low pressure moves east late Saturday, any precipitation should come to an end. Although some partial clearing is expected Saturday night, clouds will increase once again on Sunday as the next systems approach from the west. Have slowed down the arrival of precipitation, which should generally keep the area dry during the day. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Still a bit unsure about precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday as long range models are showing that two system may bracket the area to the north and south. Stuck with chance pops. Models are in better consensus bringing precipitation in with low pressure Monday night into Tuesday, and have gone with likely pops during this time period. A bit of model uncertainty continues once again for precipitation later in the week, with the GFS not showing a potent low pressure system that the ECMWF has remained consistent with for the last couple days on Thursday. Although temperatures will be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday`s cold front will bring in the coldest air of the season Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad upper troughing and cold W-WNW flow should maintain a stratocu layer across the area through the TAF period. MVFR cigs are expected for ports N of PIT, and a few snow showers are possible as a weak shortwave crosses in the afternoon. VFR cigs from PIT south early this morning should deteriorate to MVFR after sunrise as lower cigs move in from the W. Gusty west winds are expected especially during the daylight hours as a tight pressure gradient exists across the area. .OUTLOOK... Ceiling restrictions are likely through Saturday night in cold W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again Tuesday with low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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