Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280112 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 912 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL GREET THE NEW WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP PROBABILITIES AND WEATHER BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES MODEL TRENDS. HAVE RETAINED THE I 80 CORRIDOR FLOOD WATCH WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING...IN COLLABORATION WITH NWS NEIGHBORS. PREVIOUS... UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO LOSE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE I 80 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVE AS AN OCCLUDING/COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. A SLIGHT SEVERE RISK...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE HIGHLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE DEEP LOW OVER OHIO. MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND LOWER CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRUDGE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL ALLOW REMAINING SHRA TO END. TRANSIENT AND SMALL MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA MOSTLY DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR DETRIOT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A STRONG AND FAST OUTLIER AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF. WITH THE LESS DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PWATS BELOW 1.5 INCHES)...THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MANAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO TODAY. SLOWED POPS A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THINK QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCH IN GENERAL. TIMING OF SYSTEM IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE THE STRONG FLOW PATTERN. THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT THREAT OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. AFTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...VALUES REBOUND TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT CLOUDS TUESDAY WILL COOL VALUES A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASED RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET OVER THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SEES THE BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS EARLY ON SUNDAY...ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS PERSIST UNDER A COLD UPPER LOW. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013-015-016. WV...NONE. && $$

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