Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300520 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1220 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers will spread across the region today ahead of an approaching cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Shortwave racing northeast in southwest flow will spread showers across the region before daybreak, and continue into the afternoon before a cold front crosses the region this evening. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the system overnight, holding in the upper 40s and 50s. Warm advection will continue ahead of the front Wednesday, but will be tempered by clouds and widespread showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Model differences remain with regard to the rapidity of the exit of precipitation from the area on Wednesday night. Likewise, upper troughing starts to move farther eastward into the Great Lakes region with the frontal passage on Wednesday night, low level flow really fails to turn NW immediately. Thus, drier air should move into the area with the best chance for any showers of rain or snow behind the front remaining mostly north of I-80. Low level flow starts to get a smaller northerly component by Thursday night into Friday as the upper low continues to migrate slightly farther east. This may allow for a few rain and snow showers to start to develop into the ridges, as well. Temperatures will trend decidedly downward behind the frontal passage on Wednesday night. However, it will really only get us cool enough to allow for mixed rain and snow showers with little accumulation expected most anywhere.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Ridging will likely move closer and closer to the area through the weekend with low level flow gradually losing any northerly component. This should allow for showers to wind down with drier air again returning to the CWA. After the weekend, model solutions start to diverge with regard to potential activity crossing the area Sunday night into Monday. They also diverge in terms of thermal profiles when any potential activity does. A blend of models was used in this portion of the forecast with very low confidence as a result. From Monday onward, model and ensemble solutions actually start to converge upon more amplified ridging developing over the area as a deep low starts to develop in the southern Rockies. This should allow temperatures to head back upward again from the early to the middle part of next week as rain again develops.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A shortwave is expected to advance across the area this morning and afternoon resulting in showers and a deterioration to widespread MVFR/local IFR conditions. A low level jet is progged to result in a brief LLWS potential for ports S-E of PIT later this morning also before quickly exiting. Another wave and associated cold front is expected to cross the area this evening, maintaining the MVFR to local IFR conditions. A wind shift from S to W is expected with the frontal passage. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are possible through the weekend especially N of I 70 with broad upper troughing and cold W-NW flow.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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