Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191310 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 810 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A short break from precipitation today as high pressure slides across the area. Rain will return to the region late tonight and Friday as the next upper level system moves through. Mild pattern continues through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No changes were needed with the sunrise update. Upper level heights will quickly rise today in response to deepening 500mb low swinging through the central US. Closer to the surface, warm air advection will get under way and a weak surface high will move across Pennsylvania. The toughest part of the forecast is how fast, if at all, the low clouds will finally disperse from the area. As new model data arrives, it is becoming less and less likely that low cloud deck will leave the area until very late in the day. The saturated layer will decrease in depth, but forecast soundings show the inversion remaining until at least the mid to late afternoon. This will have an effect on our highs today, which have been lowered a bit. Still temperatures will reach 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest models are coming into good agreement on slowing down the onset of rain tonight, as the upper level low over the Central US will weaken and spin further to the north by Friday morning. An elongated warm front will swing through the area late tonight and Friday morning as a series of shortwaves, on the extremity of the main trough, rush through Friday morning. Have slowed the onset of showers from the previous forecast and have also brought a faster end to the precipitation Friday afternoon. By Friday afternoon, the main moisture stream will have moved to the northeast, with the trough axis following closely on its heels. Warm air advection will continue Friday night and Saturday as the flow from the southwest strengthens. Forecast soundings are indicating the atmosphere slowly drying out Saturday, which will allow for some decrease in cloud cover. Temperatures Saturday will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Sunday and track eastward into early Monday, before turning toward the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Ensembles are in descent agreement with the timing of this system, so a blend of guidance will be used for the extended period. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR cigs will persist overnight into early Thursday morning as weak high pressure builds across the region. By mid morning low levels should mix out to allow for VFR. West winds near 10 KTs tonight will become light and variable. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with low pressure Friday, and again on Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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