Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141831 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 231 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO THE AREA LATER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLICING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AT THE MOMENT. ONE SURFACE WAVE DOWN THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AND IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE LIFT AND FOCUS INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF CLEVELAND AND NORTHWARD INTO LAKE ERIE INTO A LINE OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LUCKILY ENOUGH FOR US...THIS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ONLY ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT LIKELY TO GENERATE SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SECOND WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LATE THIS EVENING AND TRACKS BASICALLY RIGHT OVER PITTSBURGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT IS BEHIND THIS WAVE THAT THE FLOW WILL FINALLY TURN AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. DRASTICALLY COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...UNDERCUTTING THE WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE MOIST AIR IS EVACUATED THROUGH THE MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TREND THE P-TYPE TOWARD SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM AIR ALOFT...A PERIOD OF SLEET CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL AIR TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT WARMTH. FOR THE RIDGES...AS THE PROFILES COOL BY LATE AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS. IT WILL TAKE VIRTUALLY ALL DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO COOL BELOW FREEZING...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER LIKELY INTERSECTING THE BOTTOM OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO PICK UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH. SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER...A UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES. MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTY SW WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY INCREASE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TREND ALL SITES FROM MVFR TOWARD IFR BY MORNING. THEN MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN...WINDS TURN NW AND BECOME GUSTY. PRECIP SHOULD TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS. FRIES .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS REMOVED FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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