Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180919 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 519 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mixed precipitation is expected today and tonight as low pressure crosses the region. Building high pressure should return dry weather later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Pre dawn update add drizzle, and cancel the winter weather advisory where temps have warmed. Extended the advisory thru 9AM near and N of I 80 where temps remain just below freezing. Otherwise, shortwave support has exited, ending any significant precip. The moisture depth has also thinned, with little to no moisture in the snow growth region, resulting in all liquid precip. Light rain and drizzle is expected to continue this morning with lift resulting from warm advection ahead of an approaching low, with light freezing rain/drizzle for some areas N of I 80 where temps continue just below freezing. Widespread fog should continue with saturated air at the surface, and highlighted localized dense fog in an SPS for morning travel. The vertically stacked low is progged to drift across the region later today, with moisture depth increasing. Rain showers are expected to develop with the low, and these could mix with and change to snow showers later in the day in cold advection. Temps should average around 10 degrees below seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper low is progged to slowly shift SE of the area by late tonight as the surface low dissipates. Snow showers are expected with cooling temperatures, and these are expected to gradually taper off by late tonight. Around an inch of snow is expected, with 1-2 inches toward the higher terrain of WV/MD/PA. An upslope component is expected, though model sounding progs show most of the moisture below the snow growth region which should limit efficient snow accumulations. The ridges could also see a period of freezing drizzle Sunday morning as moisture in the snow growth region dries out, but low level moisture lingers. Clouds should decrease late Sunday as high pressure builds in. Clouds and precip chances should return Monday with the approach and passage of a cold front, though with limited upper support maintained mainly chance pops with it`s passage. Low precip chances could continue S of PIT through Tuesday morning as a surface wave moves along the front S of the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry and cooler than average weather is expected through midweek as surface high pressure builds under a NE CONUS upper trough. Precip chances and warmer temps should return Thursday night and Friday as warm advection ensues ahead of an approaching Plains trough. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR/LIFR cig and vis restrictions along with periods of light freezing drizzle likely through the morning with saturated low levels and a frontal system impacting the region. Minimal improvement is expected throughout the day. Cigs may lift slightly as the upper low crosses, however, IFR vis restrictions will likely persist. .OUTLOOK... Ceiling restrictions will continue with weekend low pressure. Another chance for widespread precipitation will come Monday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ008- 009-015-016. WV...None.
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