Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 121040 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 540 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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More rain is expected today ahead of a cold front. More seasonable temperatures return by Friday. A wintry mix is possible over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A predawn update was issued to adjust POPs and QPF, mainly over areas north of Pittsburgh where training showers will increase rain amounts. Used numbers close to RFC guidance. Previous... The next cold front will keep in the risk for showers throughout the day, with the best chance coming during the afternoon, as the boundary approaches. The front will barrel through late this afternoon, so the PoP forecast has been created in conjunction with FROPA. Its not completely out of the question that a rumble of thunder is possible along the boundary. The main concern will be strong winds ahead of and along the front. A strong low level jet will remain over the area all day. There is the potential for these stronger winds to mix down to the surface, however, the greatest threat for advisory level winds will remain over the higher elevations, as the region remains in the warm sector. Have increased wind gusts for the entire area today. Temperatures have also been increased.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front will rush through this evening, bringing a quick end to the rain, and also ushering in a much colder air mass. High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes behind the front, keeping the area dry on Friday. This feature will play a crucial role in determining the weather type for the weekend. As of now, confidence is increasing for the existence of a wintry mix to occur on Saturday over at least the southern half of the forecast area. There is, however, large uncertainty in the northward extent of the precipitation and warm air on Saturday, thus a blend of model data was used. Sufficient cold air damming should result in freezing rain to occur, with the largest ice accumulation amounts progged over Garrett and Tucker Counties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Large operational model differences on what happens to the front Saturday night and Sunday, but focusing more on Ensemble data, the boundary should be shoved well to the south on Sunday. High pressure will build in behind the front with the next system progged for later on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR to local IFR and periodic showers are expected to continue today as a cold front slides toward the area. The front is progged for a late afternoon/early evening passage with a wind shift to the W. LLWS potential will continue until increased mixing results in S-SW surface gusts near 30 kt after daybreak. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a series of disturbances cross the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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