Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 101846 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 246 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL-DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...NOW SWINGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SHORTWAVE HAS MANAGED TO FIRE A FEW SHRA FROM ROUGHLY WAYNESBURG ON SW TOWARDS WETZEL AND TYLER COUNTIES. EVIDENTLY THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR PRECIP. HAVE ADDED POPS AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH A SMALL ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE TERRAIN. THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING APPROACHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME. IN ANY CASE...ACTIVITY SHOULD FALL APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS CU DISSIPATE...AND SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO APPROACH. EXPECTING VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BROACH CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS. WITH DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV TEMPS. MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT...EXPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE SOME ELEVATION TO REALIZE MODEST INSTABILITY AND FIRE SHRA DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG THE RIDGES. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. CL && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT E FRI NGT AND SAT WITH SRLY FLOW DVLPG. SEVERAL SHRTWVS WL CROSS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY RGN SAT NGT AND SUN WITH SHWR AND TSTM CHCS RTNG AS MOISTURE AND INSTBY INCR. TRENDED POPS UPWD BUT WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY IN THE ADVNG WAVES KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO ABV SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL CONT AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE RGN AHD OF A SLOW MOVG CDFNT. THE FNT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA TUE. SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN BLD IN THRU THU UNDER A GT LKS UPR TROF WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDS. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAINLY JUST SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SUPPORT TO FIRE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH SPOTTY MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH A SHOWER. EXPECTING A ROUND OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH SPOTS LIKE MGW...FKL...AND DUJ COULD REACH LIFR. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13-14Z WITH SCT VFR CU ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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