-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 101846
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL-DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP...NOW SWINGING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA. MOST OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS
BEEN OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SHORTWAVE HAS MANAGED TO FIRE A FEW
SHRA FROM ROUGHLY WAYNESBURG ON SW TOWARDS WETZEL AND TYLER
COUNTIES. EVIDENTLY THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW
FOR PRECIP. HAVE ADDED POPS AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WITH A SMALL ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE AS IT APPROACHES
THE TERRAIN. THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
APPROACHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME. IN ANY CASE...ACTIVITY SHOULD
FALL APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS CU DISSIPATE...AND SURFACE HIGH
STARTS TO APPROACH. EXPECTING VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AS
LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BROACH CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS. WITH
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV TEMPS.

MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT...EXPECT THAT IT
WILL TAKE SOME ELEVATION TO REALIZE MODEST INSTABILITY AND FIRE
SHRA DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ALONG
THE RIDGES.  GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS.  CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT E FRI NGT AND SAT WITH SRLY FLOW DVLPG.
SEVERAL SHRTWVS WL CROSS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY RGN SAT NGT AND
SUN WITH SHWR AND TSTM CHCS RTNG AS MOISTURE AND INSTBY INCR.
TRENDED POPS UPWD BUT WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTY IN THE ADVNG WAVES
KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS WL CONT AS A SERIES OF UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
CROSSES THE RGN AHD OF A SLOW MOVG CDFNT. THE FNT WILL FINALLY
CROSS THE AREA TUE. SFC HIGH PRES WL THEN BLD IN THRU THU UNDER A
GT LKS UPR TROF WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAINLY JUST
SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
SUPPORT TO FIRE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGES. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH SPOTTY
MVFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH A SHOWER.

EXPECTING A ROUND OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
SKIES CLEAR. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH SPOTS
LIKE MGW...FKL...AND DUJ COULD REACH LIFR. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13-14Z WITH SCT VFR CU ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$