-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150413
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1213 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Although local showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, more
widespread rain can be expected on Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No major changes were needed for the midnight update as another
shortwave is expected to spread some scattered showers over the
I 68 corridor again.

Dynamics associated with a shortwave digging eastward across the
Great Lakes on Tuesday may clip the I 80 corridor as per the
latest NAM and GFS depictions. Have thus restructured some
minimal POPs over northern, and ridge zones for that scenario as
per favorable afternoon timing.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Rising heights via overall shortwave ridging support a dry and warmer
Wednesday forecast. Isolated/slight POPs were maintained for
late Wednesday night as a warm front will be surging northward
in response to deepening low pressure over the Upper MS Valley.

That low is projected to stay well north, but the associated
frontal system is likely to spawn showers and storms on Thursday.

Seasonably warm temperature under the midweek shortwave will be
moderated back toward the average with passage of the Thursday
front.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A slowly progressing upper trough is forecast to maintain rain
chances for the weekend with near average temperature.
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&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Early morning valley MVFR to localized IFR fog is possible,
though high/mid clouds should limit this potential to the usual
ports. MVFR cigs are expected to develop at MGW overnight with
increasing low lvl moisture with a weak shortwave, before VFR
returns Tue aftn.

Another weak shortwave could result in a Tue aftn tstm toward
FKL/DUJ, but chcs appear too low for a TAF mention.

.OUTLOOK...
Localized early mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread
restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$