Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192320 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 620 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... WITH 615PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. STRATUS HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF SCATTERING OUT YET...AND WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART EAST AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING TONIGHT. MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...PREVENTING US FROM CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING. THIS ISN`T COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT...BUT WILL OPT TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING UNLESS SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW OTHERWISE. DID DROP TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE CURRENT VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WERE KEPT NEAR MET GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY BUT SOME MID-HIGH DECK MAY REPLACE THE LOW DECK...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH NEARLY STAGNANT 850HPA TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL SUN TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGHS WILL NOT SURPASS THE LOW TO MID 30`S. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. ON MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. ONE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER PATTERN...EJECTING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHWARD. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EAST...JUST BRUSHING OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WV/MD UNTIL THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIDGES WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING...CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE RIDGES BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO BE OF CONCERN IN ANY SHELTERED VALLEYS...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS OUT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP NORTH OF THE REGION. QPF ON THE FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR AN INCH...WHICH SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. BACKLASH SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKE ENHANCED AMOUNTS ALONG I-80 AND THE RIDGES. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERVASIVE STRATUS COVERS ALL SITES THIS EVENING...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS DROPPED OFF FROM EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN STRONG INVERSIONS...STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER GIVEN A BIT WIDER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM VERY LOW. MVFR CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE. FRIES OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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