Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290033 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 833 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED AND LOW CLOUDS ARE FULLY GONE FROM THE AREA...FINALLY! ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY DID MANAGE TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THERE SUCH THAT CUMULUS REALLY HARDLY EVEN DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY ELAPSED THE BULK OF THE FULLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EVENING AS HIGH CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM A DECAYING MCS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HAVE ENCROACHED UPON THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL RH PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ENVELOPE THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TRANSLUCENT DUE TO THEIR THIN CHARACTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE FORECAST WILL ONLY BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A VERY DRY LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL MEAN EFFECTIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN AS A HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COMFORTABLY SLEEPING NIGHT. IT SURE SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN UTTERLY COMMON THE SECOND HALF OF THE SUMMER AS WE CONTINUE TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WARMTH AND MOISTURE TO THE REGION. A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT LIFT DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY IFR TO MVFR NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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