-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 082201
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LAGGING
SLIGHTLY BEHIND IT. DEEPER LAYER LIFT LAGS BEHIND THE COLD
ADVECTION EVEN A BIT MORE...WHICH MEANS THE COLUMN IS COOLING
RATHER RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF MOST PRECIPITATION ONSET WITH THE
INCOMING SHORT WAVE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...MOST
PLACES THAT ARE SEEING PRECIPITATION ARE SEEING SNOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...EXPANDING BACK INTO CENTRAL
OHIO. AS THIS ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...THIS LIGHT RAIN/SNOW QUICKLY CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW WILL COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.
OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY WERE RATHER
WARM...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE GRASSY/ELEVATED AREAS. COMBINING THIS WITH
THE FACT THAT QPF LOOKS RATHER LIGHT AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE BELOW HALF AN INCH VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRES WL SLITHER OVR THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BUT THIS BRIEF
INTRUSION OF COLD AIR LKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH FLOW PROGRESSION
RESUMING WARM ADVCTN LATE SUNDAY THAT WL DRIVE TEMPS BACK ABOVE
THE AVERAGES FOR MONDAY.

SLGT...TO LOW CHC POP WERE ADDED...ADJUSTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A CROSSING DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT MSTR AND DYNAMICS TO
SPAWN SOME SHWRS ALNG SWD SAGGING FRONTAL BNDRY. THAT EVENTUAL BNDRY
POSITIONING WL BE CRITICAL FOR MID WEEK WEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS THE OH VLY INTO THE MD
ATLANTIC RGN WED. CRITICAL THICKNESSES/SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
MOSTLY RAIN...EVENTUALLY CHG/MXG WITH SNW LTR IN THE DAY IN COLD
AIR ADVCTN. DRY WEA IS EXPD TO RTN BY LT WK INTO ERLY SAT UNDER
GENL SFC RIDGING.

GENLY FOLLOWED AN ECMWF/WPC BLEND FOR THE FCST. AFT WELL BLO AVG
TEMPS THU...A RTN TO NR SEASONAL AVGS IS EXPD BY FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CDFNT WL MOVE SLOWLY S ACRS THE RGN TDA. MVFR TO OCNL IFR VSBYS
IN HZ WERE SEEN INVOF THE FNT AT FKL AND ZZV...WITH VFR TO THE S.
DEGRADATION TO WDSPRD MVFR IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVE...ALONG WITH
A PD OF LGT PCPN...AS COLD ADVCTN IS INITIATED WITH PASSAGE OF
TDAS CDFNT. A RTN TO VFR IS EXPD BY SUN MRNG.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH MID WEEK LOW PRES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$