-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131838
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
238 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT FOLLOWED THIS
MORNING`S SHOWERS...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO STREAM BACK
INTO THE REGION. IN THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE TWO CLOUDY
PERIODS...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO SKYROCKET UP TO NEARLY THE
FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN...ADDITIONAL
RAPID UPWARD MOBILITY OF THE MERCURY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. AS
SUCH...FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK OK. THE AFTERNOON UPDATE
BASICALLY JUST KICKED SKY FORECAST EXPECTATIONS A BIT UP FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES BY 00Z TUES. BY THAT
TIME THE ANAFRONT WILL HAVE SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES WELL AHEAD INTO
OUR AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH THE
MID-LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MON. WITH ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED ALONG THE FRONT...ALIGNED
NEAR 100 POPS WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES W TO E.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT TAKING US
FROM THE RECENT SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES BACK TO TEMPERATURES MORE
REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY. 12Z NAM HAS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING MORE THAN
20C IN 24HRS WITH A MINIMUM NEAR -14C WEDS MORNING. WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WEDS
MORNING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY WEDS MORNING AS THE COLD LLVL
TEMPS ARE PUSHING GUIDANCE LOWER AND LOWER WITH EACH ITERATION. HAVE SIDED
WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS AM STILL BANKING ON CLOUDS MOVING
OUT QUICK ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES FALL OFF WEDS MORNING IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...DID NOT FULLY DIVE IN AND FOLLOW MET
GUIDANCE...WHICH BRING OUR NRN ZONES INTO THE LOWER TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND WARMER AIR MASS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE PROVIDING A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE SSW
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BEFORE
COMING BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST AROUND THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE EXPD WITH A CROSSING CDFNT MON AND TUE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$