-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211919
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
319 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY BENIGN DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
REGION CAPPED. THUS...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ESE OF PIT.

TONIGHT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LOWS
WILL LIKELY STAY JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR
AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT
WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP
TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU
BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM
AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS
AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH
ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELDS DISSIPATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU
DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$