Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210133 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 933 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 930PM UPDATE...OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE... ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST IS MAKING ME A BIT NERVOUS ON WHEN AND HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL MAKE IT HEAR BEFORE MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE 850HPA LOW CROSSES OVERHEAD. OMEGA FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTS SOME QPF PER THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. ALL OF THE MODELS WERE SLOW TO CATCH ONTO THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO ADD LIKELY POPS TO AT LEAST THE RIDGE ZONES. THERE REMAINS THE CONCERN THAT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO RAIN EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE SO POPS BEYOND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WERE KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE RIDGES BY MIDDAY BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AS IT DROPS A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REALIZED EARLY. ADDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT AS IT REACHES THE RIDGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE DONT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT POPS ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKIES...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY SUPPORT SOME LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30`S...PER THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM POINTS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES. FOR NOW...HEDGED TOWARD THESE COOLER VALUES BUT OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO MET AND MEX VALUES WHICH ARE STILL 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND BY SATURDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ADVANCING SHORTWAVES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINED NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN QUESTION. USED WPC BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE WITH DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO POPS TO HELP SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF I-80. STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL LIE SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT...WITH LOCATIONS LIKE DUJ AND MGW MOST IMPACTED. LOW VFR ELSEWHERE FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS...TURNING NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE SUNDAY WARM FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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