Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160918 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 518 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak weather disturbance is expected to return shower chances late this afternoon and tonight. Warm and mainly dry weather is expected for the beginning of the work week under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Minor updates to the grids based on observations and near term model data for the pre dawn update. Previous...A shortwave is progged to advance from the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes region later today and tonight. Maintained isolated to scattered showers in the forecast mainly N of I 80 late this afternoon as the wave approaches. Otherwise, a gradual increase in cloud cover is expected. Highs should reach 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The best chance for scattered showers should be this evening with the crossing shortwave. The wave is progged to exit the area by Monday morning with any remaining POPs rapidly decreasing, and skies clearing. The Upper Ohio Valley region is expected to be on the northern periphery of a southeast CONUS upper high thereafter through Tuesday, with dry weather and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above the seasonal levels. The high is progged to shift east by Wednesday as a midwestern trough begins it`s slow approach. Shower chances are expected to return with the approach of the trough, and as a weak surface boundary stalls across the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The deep upper trough is progged to continue it`s slow approach through the end of the week, with possible passage over the weekend. This should result in continued shower chances and a gradual cooling trend. Timing details remain uncertain, so again sided close to a NAEFS solution and Superblend guidance through the period to account for these uncertainties. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions through the period, as a weak front pushes south across the area late today and washes out tonight. Increasing mid and high clouds as the day progresses, with a stray shower possible. Winds will become southwest near 10 KTs by afternoon. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will be with a weak front Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a better chance for restrictions Thursday with low pressure. && .CLIMATE...
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Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The best potential for reaching near record or record high temperatures is expected on Tuesday. Below are the Tuesday Oct 18th records and year of occurrence for selected sites. PIT...83 set in 1938 MGW...83 set in 1963 ZZV...81 set in 1964 PHD...83 set in 1968 HLG...79 set in 1950 DUJ...79 set in 1963
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.