Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220028 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 828 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A wet weekend will give way to a drier beginning to the new week. Warmer conditions will also follow for much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Evening update to adjust pops toward radar trends and adjust hourly temperatures. Upper trough only slowly shifting east this evening as another shortwave dives down backside of trough early tonight across the eastern lakes. Have slowed eastward progression of likely pops this evening and maintained chance pops back into eastern ohio until after midnight. No changes to temperatures as they look in line. A secondary surge of mid-level cold air will move into the CWA for Sunday. This will allow for more unstable lapse rates yet again. Model soundings do indicate 500-900 J/kg of CAPE and given that the majority of it is in the thermal charge separation layer, a slight chance of thunderstorms was added to the forecast for Sunday. However, Sunday certainly does not look like at all the washout that Saturday has been. Sunday max temps not as cool as saturday but still 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Remaining diurnal rain showers over the east will taper off Sunday night after the atmosphere becomes more stable. The slow moving vertically-stacked low pressure system will linger along the Mid- Atlantic through Monday. Meanwhile, a ridge will continue to build west of the area and will try to suppress cloud and rain production. Enough moisture and instability associated with the low remains over our eastern 1/3 Monday afternoon for showers with isolated thunder. This activity will once again diminish with the setting sun. Tuesday should remain dry as the low slowly meanders up the coast and the ridge crawls in. Sunshine and increasing southwesterly flow will lead to climbing temperatures through midweek. tax && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridging building across the eastern United States will result in southwesterly flow, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Compared to previous model runs, Wednesday appears to be mostly dry, but otherwise there should be a fair chance for showers through the rest of the week. Kept thunder mention during afternoon/evening hours following a diurnal cycle. Temperatures will be above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A deepening upper trough and low level moisture should keep mainly MVFR and patchy IFR conditions across area ports overnight. Mixing should gradually increase conditions to VFR for much of the area by early Sunday afternoon, though areas closer to the upper low toward east of PIT should remain mainly MVFR. Shower coverage should continue to diminish tonight, before re- developing on Sunday as the trough deepens into a cut off low across PA. Enough instability could exist Sunday afternoon for a few thunderstorms, but left mention out of TAFs at this time due to uncertainty. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible through Monday before the upper low exits. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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