Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211919 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 319 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FAIRLY BENIGN DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD. WHILE THERE WILL REMAIN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION CAPPED. THUS...LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ESE OF PIT. TONIGHT DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD BLD IN THRU TUE...WITH ONLY SLGT CHCS FOR AFTN TERRAIN ENHANCED CNVCTN OVR THE RIDGES. A SHRTWV PASSAGE LT WED WL DRIVE A CDFNT THRU THE RGN WITH SHWR/TSTM POPS RAMPING UP TO LIKELY WITH FROPA. POST FRONTAL SHWRS WL BE PSBL INTO THU BEFORE DRY SFC HIGH PRES BLDS IN UNDER A NE CONUS UPR TROF. WRM AND HUMID CONDS TO START WL BE REPLACED BY SLGTLY BLO AVG TEMPS AND DCRG HUMIDITY BY THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WITH ONLY STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELDS DISSIPATE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP WITH A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z OR SO BEFORE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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