Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 050549 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1249 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE ACTIVITY IS BEING SPAWNED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR...THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE HAS LOWERED ENOUGH TO REACH THE MARGINAL INVERSION HEIGHTS. THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...WHICH WILL DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SNOW. EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS DAWN APPROACHES WITH THE COLDEST AIR FINALLY REACHING THOSE LOCATIONS. COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PASSING MID-DECK. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND ONCE THE MID CLOUDS CLEAR...SUNSHINE WILL RETURN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA SO ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY AND A MINOR MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MUCH MORE ACTIVE LONG TERM...BEGINNING MONDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PLANTS ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WAS CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VARIABLE CIGS FROM MVFR TO IFR WITH A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 10Z MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS...WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH 12Z AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES. ELSEWHERE CLEARING LINE SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS OHIO AND WILL WORK ACROSS REGION FROM 12ZA TO 16Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID DECK WEST TO EAST AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GENERAL VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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