-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 261436
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATE MRNG UPDATE FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS AND TO BUMP HIGH
TEMPS UP GIVEN THE LACK OF CLD COVER BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE.

SHRTWV RIDGE WL SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT NXT
SHRTWV MOVG ACRS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SPAWN SOME SCT
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. STORMS OVR WRN OH AND IN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...TRACK OF WHICH MAY CLIP AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 TNGT. RISK OF SVR WITH THAT...AND FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE AREA APPEARS SMALL FOR NOW.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT IS OF SUNDAY AS
DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE
UPR OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND
UPR WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR
DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL
THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE ARE HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A
FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A ZANESVILLE TO MORGANTOWN LINE WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DRAWN MODERATE PROBABILITIES IN VCNTY OF THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.

PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT
AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH
REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY.
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&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR CONDS EXPD TDA WITH A MIX OF DIURNAL CU AND AC. A WK SHRTWV
APCHS THIS EVE...BUT WITH PCPN COVG IN QN ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN
THE TAFS. AN MCS WL LIKELY AFFECT PORTS S OF PIT LT TNGT INTO ERLY
SUN MRNG. WITH TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES MAINTAINED A VCTS
MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM WITH MVFR CONDS.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADVNG LOW PRES WL LIKELY BRING TSTM RSTRNS SUN...WITH LINGERING
RSTRNS INTO MON AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CDFNT CROSSES.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07