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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241917
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
317 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
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Another day of dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected
on Sunday before a cold front brings rain and scattered
thunderstorms on Monday.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Clouds continue to erode from north to south as drier air moves into
the region. Although several models showed the possibility of some
isolated showers developing in the higher elevations of WV and MD,
so far this afternoon nothing has developed, so a dry forecast has
been maintained. Clear skies are expected to continue overnight and
into Sunday with high pressure building in from the north. Overnight
lows will be about 10 degrees colder than last night while Sunday`s
highs will be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Clouds will be on the increase Sunday night in advance of a cold
front that will cross the region Monday afternoon. Continued to inch
pops up in the forecast. Depending on the exact timing that the
front comes through, cannot rule out the potential for some strong
thunderstorms considering the respectable wind shear and instability
that could be present. The bulk of the rainfall should be through
the area after Monday evening, with a reinforcing shot of cold air
arriving Monday night into Tuesday. Although warm advection will
bring warmer temperatures on Monday, the coldest high temperatures
of the season so far are forecast on Tuesday. Widespread highs in
the 60s are expected, and isolated locations could remain in the 50s.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Both the 00Z and 12Z runs of the ECMWF kept a trough across
theeastern United States throughout the forecast period, which was
anoutlier solution compared to the GFS, Canadian, and
ensemblessolutions, and was not used for this part of the
forecast. As anupper trough moves across the region Wednesday and
Thursday, cloudcover will remain across the area. Although the
wind direction isstill a bit uncertain those two days, lake effect
rain showers willbe possible while northwest flow develops off
Lake Erie. By Fridaywinds will develop an easterly component,
which will allow sunnyskies to return. Slightly below normal
temperatures are expectedthrough the period.
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.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Subsidence and dry advection with building high pressure will
erode residual stratocu as the afternoon progresses. General VFR
can then be expected through Sunday with exception for peri-dawn
fog at southern terminals where boundary layer moisture is more
likely to pool and favorably hydrolapse in the wake of the front.
North wind will gradually acquire an easterly component, but
remain light as the surface high settles toward the area.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

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$$