Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131838 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 238 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AFTER A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING THAT FOLLOWED THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION. IN THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE TWO CLOUDY PERIODS...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO SKYROCKET UP TO NEARLY THE FORECAST HIGHS. HOWEVER...AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN...ADDITIONAL RAPID UPWARD MOBILITY OF THE MERCURY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED. AS SUCH...FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK OK. THE AFTERNOON UPDATE BASICALLY JUST KICKED SKY FORECAST EXPECTATIONS A BIT UP FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR WRN ZONES BY 00Z TUES. BY THAT TIME THE ANAFRONT WILL HAVE SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES WELL AHEAD INTO OUR AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MON. WITH ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED ALONG THE FRONT...ALIGNED NEAR 100 POPS WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES W TO E. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT TAKING US FROM THE RECENT SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES BACK TO TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF FEBRUARY. 12Z NAM HAS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING MORE THAN 20C IN 24HRS WITH A MINIMUM NEAR -14C WEDS MORNING. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH EARLY WEDS MORNING...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST EARLY WEDS MORNING AS THE COLD LLVL TEMPS ARE PUSHING GUIDANCE LOWER AND LOWER WITH EACH ITERATION. HAVE SIDED WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS AM STILL BANKING ON CLOUDS MOVING OUT QUICK ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES FALL OFF WEDS MORNING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...DID NOT FULLY DIVE IN AND FOLLOW MET GUIDANCE...WHICH BRING OUR NRN ZONES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR MASS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE PROVIDING A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE SSW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BEFORE COMING BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND THE END OF THE TAF VALID TIME. FRIES .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE EXPD WITH A CROSSING CDFNT MON AND TUE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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