Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151614 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1114 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The arrival of colder air today will return snow shower chances to the forecast through Thursday. High pressure will then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and warmer conditions expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A deepening upper low projected to cross into New York this evening will reinforce colder air across the area. The combination of colder air with increasing moisture in the low levels will assist in generating more snow showers, especially across the favorable upslope terrain. Model soundings depict steep lapse rates through the snow growth zone with sufficient moisture overnight across the ridges of WV and MD. Thus, confidence has increased in issuing an advisory for snow overnight. Given the quick breakdown of the inversion height as high pressure is progged to build late tonight, snow accumulation should overall remain below advisory criteria elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually fall through the period and reach near seasonal values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Building high pressure should end the snow showers later on Thursday and keep temperatures slightly cooler than average. Dry and relatively warmer weather is expected Friday while a ridge develops over the southeast CONUS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A ridging pattern generally dominates this period for much of the eastern U.S., leading to well above normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected through at least Saturday. A weak shortwave tries to undercut the ridge across the Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Still think that most precipitation from this feature will remain off to our south, and have continued slight chance PoPs. The ridge then reestablishes itself through Monday. A Canadian shortwave may succeed in knocking down the ridge to some degree by Tuesday, leading to the next decent rain chance. No new cold air outbreaks are foreseen for quite some time. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wind shift with cold front is through KPIT at 12Z and front will cross remaining ports to the east by 15Z. A few rounds of snow showers are possible through the TAF period. Ceilings/visibilities will generally be VFR or high-end MVFR for the most part. Brief drops to IFR are possible in the heavier snow showers, particularly at FKL and DUJ, but are not expected to be frequent. Northwest winds behind the front will gust to 25 knots this afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight. .OUTLOOK... Some restrictions are likely through Thursday as cold northwest flow persists. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ511>514.
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