Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251756 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1256 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIND SHIFT WITH LEADING EDGE OF 850MB COLD ADVECTION EXTENDS FROM NEAR INDIANA TO PITTSBURGH AND NEW PHILADELPHIA. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE FROM DUBOIS TO BUTLER SHOULD DISSIPATE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBS. COLD 850MB AIR WILL INVADE TONIGHT WHILE WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS LACKING THE LOWER LEVELS...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER DOWN FRI AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE FULLY EVACUATES THE COLUMN FRIDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING. DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND PRESUMABLY A REMNANT SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ULTIMATELY TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW ZERO. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS WOULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS...SOME LONG STANDING AND SOME AS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED AS LAST YEAR. CALM WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. THE BEAT GOES ON IN A FEBRUARY THAT HAS BEEN FAR FROM NORMAL. MAYBE MARCH WILL ROAR IN WITH A WARMER PATTERN... TAX && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MARCH BEGINS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING SHUNTED TO OUR EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS IN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING A CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A LOOSE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY LATE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK OF NORMALS...WHICH MEANS LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPES COME BACK INTO THE MIX. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES...SFC TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN BEING INCLUDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. AT THE MOMENT...INCLUSION OF A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT TOO FINE SCALE AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT SIGNS POINT TO CONTINUED WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS THE SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS MEANS A WARM AND WET SOLN WILL BE FAVORED. TAX && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAGGING COLD FRONT MAY OCCASIONAL IMPACT KFKL AND KDUJ FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AND FORECAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH...A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING...WITH PERIODIC IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...OPTED TO TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING PREVAILING IFR OUT. WNW WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE E-NE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RESTRICTION POSSIBILITIES WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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