Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241854 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 254 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS THIS WAVE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT...WITH RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED A BRIEF CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN GARRETT COUNTY WHERE COLD AIR COULD STAY LOCKED IN THE LOW LEVELS...THOUGH THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED...AND WHERE THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE WAVE EXITS BY AFTERNOON. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PREFERRED THE QUICKER ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS GIVEN UPPER FLOW AND DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN. AFTER ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A RETURN TO READINGS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STILL SOME MVFR LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW PA...AND SOME AREAS OF AFTERNOON CU AS WELL...BUT EXPECT THESE TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 21Z IN OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE MAINTAINED WELL INTO THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR A WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 09Z. ONLY KDUJ HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE OF SEEING A SHORT PERIOD OF FZRA AT THE ONSET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAF YET. IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF. CL .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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