Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221127 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 727 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Chances of showers and storms will continue into the weekend. Cooler weather arrives next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning update made to make minor adjustments to temperature and dewpoint this afternoon based on latest observations and trends. Previous... Upper level heights will rise today, which will assist in dragging the stalled boundary northward. This will in turn allow the more humid air to overspread much of the region by late in the day. As heights rise, another shortwave will ride over top of the weak ridge and provide the risk for afternoon showers and storms, mainly north of PIT. This wave will also flatten the ridge by late in the day. With the increasing humidity, surface temperatures will rise with warm advection and increasing mixing heights. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... More substantial upper level energy will stream northward from the lower Ohio Valley tonight. These waves will follow the intensifying southwest flow aloft, as the remnants of TS Cindy move over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Deep moisture, tropical in nature, will also stream northward which will bring widespread rain and storms to the area late tonight through Friday night. Warm rain process will develop on Friday, creating a scenario for very efficient rainfall. As the rain overspreads the region, a surface cold front will move across the Upper Midwest, reaching Western Ohio by late in the afternoon. It is a good bet that rainfall will intensify late tonight and then ahead of the boundary Friday afternoon, so the eastward progression of the front will need to be monitored closely in future model runs. In addition to closely watching the progression of the front, where the remnants of TS Cindy go, once it phases in with the upper level flow, will also be critical. It will take all of Friday night for the front to exit to the east, meaning the risk for heavy rain will continue into early Saturday. Drier air sags through the area on Saturday behind the exiting front. This will allow for the area to finally start to dry out and cool down. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A stark shift in the upper level pattern looks to occur by early next week. Model and ensemble projections all favor deep troughing settling over the region by that juncture. With this, much colder air aloft combined with northwesterly surface flow will mean temperatures well below normal with chances of showers as cold air aloft migrates through the region. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR is expected through the period outside of possible scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of KPIT as a stalled frontal boundary lifts back to the north. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely Friday and Friday night with the encroachment of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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