Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 112119 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 519 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A crossing cold front will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Saturday. High pressure should return dry weather for Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A shortwave ahead of an approaching cold front should continue to result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening. Any severe potential remains very low as warm mid levels have limited instability, and better shear values are observed to the E across central PA. Shower chances should diminish late this eve as the shortwave exits. The cold front is expected to cross the region Saturday, with shower and thunderstorm chances expected until its passage. FROPA is expected across OH in the morning, and across the rest of the area during the afternoon. Maintained a period of likely POPs E of PIT where a late afternoon FROPA is expected, and better diurnally driven instability is expected. Temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of the seasonal average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure will move over the Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend, and dry weather is expected. A weak boundary will push some moisture into the ridges on Monday, and with agreement between deterministic/ensemble models, have added the chance of showers across eastern counties Monday and Monday night. Temperatures through the period will be a couple degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will yield dry weather again on Tuesday and Wednesday. By the end of next week, a cold front will stretch south from Canada across the eastern United States, but long range models are showing a typical spread in timing/strength of the front. Have stuck with low chance pops in the forecast, especially Thursday night and Friday. Near normal temperatures are in the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some isolated showers are beginning to pop up across the area, but will remain hit or miss until the more organized activity over eastern Ohio arrives this evening. Brief restrictions and strong winds will be possible in any stronger thunderstorms, but confidence in timing any one port getting impacted is too low at this time for inclusion. The wave passes later tonight with shower activity dwindling after sunset. A period of VFR is expected, before stratus re- develops Saturday morning. Still some questions around the spatial extent and height of stratus, but have geared the forecast to a similar trend as this morning. Will focus IFR stratus to the more climatologically favorable ports while maintaining MVFR elsewhere. Light southerly surface flow will shift around to the west for Saturday. .OUTLOOK... Surface high pressure is forecast to support general VFR through early next week with exceptions for pre-dawn fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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