Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 302143 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 543 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW.. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE. THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE FEATURED EACH DAY. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IMPACTING SITES SOUTH OF KPIT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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