Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 281506
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1106 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
A series of crossing disturbances will keep showers in the
forecast through the weekend with humid conditions.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Shortwave producing showers and embedded thunderstorms moving
northeast across region with bulk of rain south of State Route 422
into early afternoon. POPs have been adjusted into the afternoon
as this shortwave exits, while next shortwave over the TN valley
follows late this afternoon into tonight. Temperatures look in
line for the afternoon and no changes were required.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models continue to struggle with the placement and amount of
the heaviest rainfall tonight. Some of the ops models appear to
have convective feedback problems this evening and overnight as
the surface low moves to the east and the trailing upper level
trough swings through. It still looks that the best chance for
heavier rainfall will be confined to the locations near the Mason-
Dixon line this evening and possibly into early Friday morning.
Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question
due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the
low and aforementioned trough.
The upper level system will exit the forecasting area Friday
morning, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region.
Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and
Saturday, keeping in shower and thunderstorm chances through the
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the
eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal
temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure
looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of
the extended period.
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A slug of rain will move east northeast through the morning hours
with the greatest impact at MGW where MVFR/IFR weather is
forecast /mostly this evening/. This terminal has the highest
confidence of all. For the remainder of the airports, confidence
falls to medium where questions arise how far north will the rain
shield get? Either way, possibility exists for scattered showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm through the evening.
IFR clouds should develop overnight due to rainfall today and
increased low level moisture and light winds along the boundary.
For now, included sub 1KFT cigs for PIT and MGW. The other
terminals, MVFR stratocu was introduced.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brief sub VFR restrictions are possible in showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, however given duration and coverage
nothing more than a CB or VCTS/ VCSH expected at this time.