Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171052 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 552 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected today with high pressure. Rain can be expected Saturday with crossing low pressure and a cold front. Gusty winds and a few snow showers are expected behind the front Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Updated sky condition and temperatures based on observations and near term models for the pre dawn update. Previous...Stratocu should gradually erode later today as high pressure builds overhead, though mid/high clouds should already be increasing in warm advection ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Highs should be around 5 degrees below average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Clouds should continue to increase tonight as low pressure tracks from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes area. Rain should overspread the region overnight and Saturday morning as the low`s warm front tracks N. Periods of rain are expected to continue Saturday as a series of shortwaves in SW flow ahead of an approaching upper trough cross the area. Strong winds just above the surface are progged over the area Saturday, though model soundings continue to indicate a capping inversion aloft, keep these winds from reaching the ground. The low is progged to track to Southern Ontario Saturday evening, dragging a cold front across the area. Showers are expected with FROPA. Steepening lapse rates with cold advection, and strong winds aloft should result in wind gusts of 30-40 mph behind the front Saturday night. Higher gusts are possible in the PA/WV/MD ridges. Snow showers are expected by Sunday morning as the main upper trough crosses the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley region. Maintained the highest POPs for areas near and N of I 80 and in the PA/WV/MD ridges where lake/terrain enhancement is expected. Generally forecasting 1-3 inches of snow in these favored areas. A limiting factor in the upslope snow could be a lack of saturation in the snow growth region on model soundings. Snow is still likely, though rates could be limited by this factor. Another shortwave rotating through the main trough should maintain scattered to numerous snow showers Sun afternoon and early evening. Winds and precip should diminish Sunday night with building high pressure and backing winds.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather is expected early in the week under ridging. A weak trough could return precip chances by mid week for areas N of PIT. Surface high pressure is progged to build under broad, weak upper troughing for the rest of the week, resulting in dry and cool weather. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low VFR / high MVFR ceilings this morning will improve to VFR today as high pressure crosses the region. The next are of low pressure will begin to impact sites by the end of the TAF period with possible restrictions and LLWS by early tomorrow morning. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a Sat cold front and with Sun upper troughing and cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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