Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290705
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
305 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD
VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME
FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH
OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE
OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.

PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC
PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR
REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST.
STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST
POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK
WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A
FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT DUJ AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY
MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY WITH THE FRONT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES
OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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