Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291847
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN
AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO
INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN
ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM
RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH
A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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