Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS61 KPBZ 020957
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
457 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TO BELOW FREEZING. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONGOING SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND
SUBSIDENCE LIMITS LIFT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS MORNING IS ICY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ROADS THAT WERE WET
AND/OR SNOW/SLUSH COVERED FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS QUICKLY OVER THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE
LITTLE WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE ONLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
CENTERS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...


COLD TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ADVANCE OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE. A COLD START WITH RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAY SPAWN SOME FREEZING RAIN PROBLEMS AND A MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEADLINES WAS CONTINUED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...BUT THE PRECIPITATION START TIME AND TEMPERATURE
MAGNITUDE PROGNOSIS IS NOT MODEL CONSISTENT AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

IN ADDITION...PROLONGED WARM...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED RAINFALL LATER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT SNOW MELT UNTIL COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS AS DEPICTED BY
THE MODELS ARE SHAKY AS USUAL IN WARM ADVECTION EVENTS...ESPECIALLY
IN LIGHT OF THE LOW CENTER CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A LACK OF
CONVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD CERTAINLY ROB THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL.

NEVERTHELESS...WITH SNOWMELT...SMALL STREAM AND RIVER RISES SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED AND SOME ICE COVER IS LIKELY TO POP...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN BASINS. THE RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM
FLOODING WILL THUS REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ALSO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
RACING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A
QUICK END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A QUIET BUT
COLD END TO THE WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
SEPARATE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GENERAL
MVFR FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG THROUGH
DAWN. AFTER THIS TIME...STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE
DISTRICT.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT
STARTING TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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