Area Forecast Discussion
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185
FXUS61 KPBZ 270431
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1231 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected through the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Eastern CONUS ridging is expected to continue today. Dry weather
is expected overnight. A few showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, though the proximity of the ridge and
lack of significant instability should limit this to isolated
coverage. Temperatures are expected to remain 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the
forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge.
Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Diurnal chances for
showers/storms can be expected each day with daytime heating but
there does not appear to be any significant features to focus
activity until late on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift
east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable
atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term
period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the
Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated
precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to
account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions.
Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist with only brief peri-dawn mvfr fog
limited by mid/upr cloudiness and relatively low crossover
temperatures. An isolated shower or storm is possible this
afternoon, but confidence in coverage and placement is not
sufficient for TAF inclusion.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

07/15



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