Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160604
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
104 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers will taper down later today. High pressure will
then build in for the beginning of the weekend with drier and
warmer conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A nearly stationary upper-level low pressure system will
continue to enhance cold northwest flow across the area. This
will keep snow showers in the forecast through this morning as
the pool of cold air enhances overhead. The 00z sounding showed 850mb
temperatures nearing -12C. Further lowering of the dendritic
snow growth layer will continue to squeeze out high ratio snow,
especially in the high terrain. Will keep the Winter Weather
Advisory intact through the early morning and reassess near
daybreak.

Later today, the center of the upper low will translate eastward
as the surface low intensifies near Nova Scotia. This will allow
drier air to invade and heights to build locally. Inversion
heights will suppress to the point where appreciable snow
production will be choked off. Cold air already in place will
keep temperatures nearly 10 degrees below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure should end the snow showers later on
Thursday and keep temperatures slightly cooler than average. Dry
and relatively warmer weather is expected Friday while a ridge
develops over the southeast CONUS. Temperatures will rise to
well above normal levels on Saturday as warm advection
continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak shortwave tries to undercut the ridge across the
Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Still think that most
precipitation from this feature will remain off to our south,
and have continued slight chance PoPs where moisture and lift
will be limited. The ridge then reestablishes itself through
Monday. A weak shortwave may succeed in knocking down the ridge
to some degree by Tuesday, leading to the next decent rain
chance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow showers will continue overnight across the area. Prevailing
conditions will generally fall in the VFR/high-end MVFR range,
but brief drops to IFR will remain possible in the heavier
showers. Coverage of snow showers will begin to drop off after
sunrise as upper level low pressure starts to pull away. Flight
conditions will improve to VFR during the daylight hours, with
clearing occurring by sunset. Winds will continue to gust to
between 15 and 25 knots through the TAF period before subsiding
after sunset.

.OUTLOOK...
A weak disturbance may bring restrictions Friday morning,
otherwise the next chance for widespread restrictions will be
with a Tuesday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ511>514.

&&

$$



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