Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 161907
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH
VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY
ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD
PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY
LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW
FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER
TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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