Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 251922
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
322 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT...WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH WITH SHOWERS EXITING FOR THE MOST PART
MID AFTERNOON...AND WITH WARMER AND MOIST AIR ENVELOPING THE
REGION TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO BE IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT. QUITE MILD AS TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGHEST POPS BEFORE 12Z ACROSS EASTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT STARTS NEAR OR JUST INTO NW CORNER OF CWA AT 12Z
THURSDAY. WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP EASTWARD PROGRESS SLOW
DURING THE DAY...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING IT
EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. BEST QPF WILL LIE CLOSE TO THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW IN OHIO. HOWEVER...ENTIRE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
GET A GOOD SOAKING. PWATS WILL BE PUNCHING UP NEAR OR JUST OVER
1.0 INCH IN DECENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. LIFT WILL BE AIDED BY A
TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TOTAL QPF OF 0.4" TO 0.8" LOOKS GOOD FOR
THIS EVENT. THE STRONG LIFT MAY COMBINE WITH ABOUT 50-100 J/KG OF
CAPE TO PRODUCE A FEW TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST OF A ROUGH
HLG-LBE LINE. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE APPROPRIATE AREAWIDE. EXPECTING
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL PROGRESS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS SUBZERO H925/H850 AIR LAGS THE
FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE BACKSIDE...GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF INCH. COVERAGE WILL REACH ITS MINIMUM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP FRIDAY AS H500 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UPPED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IF
MODELS CAN BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO
QPF IS LOW. DURING THE DAY...A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR
A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SHSN TO TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN EXITING NORTHEAST I-80 CORRIDOR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IFR CIGS
AND SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM KZZV AROUND
09Z TO KLBE BY 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO 25
KTS AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE TURNING DIMINISHING TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNDER 10 KTS.


.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION. VFR HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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