Area Forecast Discussion
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950
FXUS61 KPBZ 030122
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
922 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS REALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. WITH MAIN
SHORTWAVE STILL TO THE WEST AND APPROACHING OVERNIGHT...SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS STILL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT TO THIS
THINKING. WITH NO INSTABILITY LEFT AND THE THREAT OF THUNDER/HEAVY
RAIN CEASING...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A TICK OR TWO OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MOS
GUIDANCE.

STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
AS SHALLOW AND MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHERE CLOUDS CAN BREAK.
H500 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
CL

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION
EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR TO START THE PERIOD...BUT A DROP TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG AND LOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE
IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FIGURED FOR
TUESDAY...WITH MOST SITES ACHIEVING VFR CEILINGS BY AFTERNOON. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP AS WELL IN AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY.
CL

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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