Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210408
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1208 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF
A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PTCHY CLDS WL CONT OVRNGT UNDER A WKNG SHRTWV. PTCHY FOG IS ALSO
EXPD WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVR OH. ADDNL DIRUNAL CU IS EXPD TO
DVLP ON MON...THOUGH ANY SHWR/TSTM CHCS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
OROGRAPHCIALL DRIVEN ACTIVITY E-SE OF PIT. EVE RAOB PLOTS SHOW WRM
MD LVL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE CNVCTN ELSW...AND UPR LVL RIDGING
SHOULD GRDLY BLD IN DURG THE AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL
AVG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE
MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM AND
HUMID DAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY REGARDING A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT SET TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE
POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE APPROXIMATE TIMING OF
FROPA ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...ANALYSIS OF LATEST 10 GFS RUNS SHOWS
MINIMAL CHANGE IN POSITION AND HEIGHTS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME SC/AC TO DEAL WITH.
OVERNIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG
FORMATION...AN MVFR MIST IN GENERAL BUT IFR TO LIFR POSSIBILITIES
IN THE VALLEYS. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON CU IN ITS WAKE.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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