Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 021424
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A MONDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 1015AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO KEEP MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THAT MOVED EAST FROM
OHIO HAVE NOT DISSIPATED...AND ARE ACTUALLY BRINGING OVERCAST
SKIES TO SOME LOCATIONS FROM PITTSBURGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY PASSING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONTAL APPROACH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
ONLY SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING. NEWEST SPC
OUTLOOK PUTS MUCH OF REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN ACTUALLY
BE REALIZED. BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS IS FORECAST BY MODELS...SO
WILL MENTION IN HWO. GRADUALLY COOLER WITH DRYING BEHIND
FRONT TUESDAY. TIMING ISSUES WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF REGION. USED A MODEL
COMPROMISE TO SLOWLY INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE
TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST
TODAY...BUT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESTRICTION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LATE MONDAY
COLD FRONT. VFR WILL THEN RETURN UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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