Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281204
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
804 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH 8AM UPDATE...CONTINUED MENTION OF VALLEY FOG AS FOG CONTINUES
TO BE OBSERVED ALONG RIVERS. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...BUT MADE NO CHANGES TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.

BROAD AND DRY HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SUPPRESS PCPN AND WL CONT TO
MAINTAIN TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS FOR THE NR
TERM PD.  NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST PERISTENCE RMNS PRUDENT DESPITE MDL INDICATIONS OF INCRSD
SHRTWV ACTIVITY DURING THE 1ST HALF OF THE WEEK. MSTR PAUCITY WEST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...LACK OF LIFT...AND POOR SPPRTG WIND AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALL SPPRT NO MORE A SLIGHT PCPN CHC...MAINLY
WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM FORECAST WAS CONTD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTIONS OF AN EWD
DVLPG HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF/STRONG CDFNT LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...NWD
TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SCENARIO OF
DISRUPTED DYNAMICS AS THE SYSTEMS CROSSES THE UPR OHIO REGION.
DESPITE THIS SYSTEM BEING THE NXT BEST CHC FOR PCPN...POPS WL RMN
IN THE CHC CATEGORY UNTIL FURTHER MATURATION OCCURS.

CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPS IS HIGHER...BUT THE COLD SURGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND RAPID MODERATION
BACK TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS IS ANTICIPATED AFTR NXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER VFR FORECAST WITH IFR-MVFR FOG THROUGH MID MORNING AT
HLG...FKL AND DUJ.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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