Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251839
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
239 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION EAST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK DYNAMICS...SO EXPECT THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
 WITH THE HELP OD DIURNAL HEATING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. &&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH WILL END AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
SETTLE IN BY THURSDAY MORNING. COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME...MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
CREATE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THE BEST APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AFTER THIS TIME...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE SPEED OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT BRINGING A
TROUGH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO HPC
GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. DID ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG AT
ZZV OVERNIGHT BUT IF CLOUDS LINGER...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.

SOUTHERLY WIND WILL REMAIN UNDER 5KTS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WED WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$











USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.