Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 141831
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
TO THE AREA LATER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN
ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OHIO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SLICING THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AT THE MOMENT. ONE SURFACE WAVE DOWN
THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AND
IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE LIFT AND FOCUS INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WEST OF CLEVELAND AND NORTHWARD INTO LAKE ERIE INTO A LINE
OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. LUCKILY ENOUGH FOR
US...THIS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH
ONLY ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT LIKELY TO GENERATE
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DEVELOPS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK LATE THIS EVENING
AND TRACKS BASICALLY RIGHT OVER PITTSBURGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. IT IS BEHIND THIS WAVE THAT THE FLOW WILL FINALLY TURN
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
TO TRUDGE EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.

DRASTICALLY COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...UNDERCUTTING THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS THE MOIST AIR IS EVACUATED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TREND THE P-TYPE TOWARD SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM AIR
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF SLEET CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD START TO CHANGE TO
SNOW BY AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL
AIR TEMPERATURES AND UNFAVORABLE GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT
WARMTH.

FOR THE RIDGES...AS THE PROFILES COOL BY LATE AFTERNOON...LAPSE
RATES WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS. IT
WILL TAKE VIRTUALLY ALL DAY FOR THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO COOL
BELOW FREEZING...HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER LIKELY INTERSECTING THE BOTTOM OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO PICK UP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOW MODEL SPREAD FOR WEDS MORNING...SO BASICALLY JUST
TWEAKED TEMPS HERE AND THERE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH 06Z WEDS TO CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SE RIDGES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER...A UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH COULD
ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES.

MID-WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL RISK OF SHOWERS WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO SPRING FOR THE LONG TERM...WITH THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTY SW WINDS WILL
TREND TOWARD THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY INCREASE IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TREND
ALL SITES FROM MVFR TOWARD IFR BY MORNING. THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN...WINDS TURN NW AND BECOME GUSTY. PRECIP SHOULD TREND
TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER CONTINUED IFR
CONDITIONS. FRIES

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
REMOVED FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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