Area Forecast Discussion
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224
FXUS61 KPBZ 040557
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1257 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern will continue through the week, with
precipitation expected Sunday night, Tuesday, and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak high pressure will work into the region overnight, with only
a few leftover flurries in dying northwest flow. As the surface
high shifts east later today increasing mid and high level
moisture will will keep skies cloudy, as complex northern and
southern stream shortwaves approach.  Weak warm advection will
keep temperatures near the seasonal average Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flow on Sunday night with incoming cold front does not appear to
be as split as it has over the last few days, and with system
better organized, had increased pops to likely in all locations.
Considering temperatures on Sunday will have been slightly warmer
than the last several days, precipitation will start as rain in
most places, with any snow accumulation less than an inch. A
lingering shower may last into Monday, but the rest of the day
should be dry.

Forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is becoming a bit more
complicated. The last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been
relatively consistent with timing of precipitation moving into the
region, so have thrown out the NAM/SREF as fast outliers.
Precipitation should move in from southwest to northeast. Warm
temperatures aloft will melt any precipitation, but there is still
some uncertainty as to how cold surface temperatures will be as
precipitation begins. Have added freezing rain to the forecast in
many locations, although confidence still remains low in how the
pattern will develop and thus no mention was added in the
hazardous weather outlook. Tuesday may end up being the warmest
day of the week with temperatures in most locations rising into
the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation will decrease Tuesday night as low pressure moves to
the east, with the next widespread chance for precipitation
arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front,
the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and
Saturday. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With our region remaining in northwest flow ahead of a building
ridge, some low cigs in stratus and occasional snow showers remain,
mainly north of PIT. Expect the IFR and low MVFR cigs to gradually
improve at KFKL and KDUJ, with VFR expected to continue at all other
terminals. Stratus will gradually be replaced by high clouds in
advance of the next system progged to approach late Sunday. Will
start to trend back down toward MVFR as suggested in all guidance
with the approach of this weak front, with lower restrictions
possible by the end of the TAF period.

Wind will remain light out of the w-nw, gradually shifting to
southeasterly ahead of the boundary.

.OUTLOOK...
Lingering restrictions possible early Monday followed by VFR until
the next system approaches late Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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