Area Forecast Discussion
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458
FXUS61 KPBZ 181501
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1001 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal
system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.
Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Second update made this morning to continue to adjust
temperatures as once the inversion breaks, a 10 degree
bump occurs. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to cloud
cover through this evening as a slow moving wave approaches.
With strong warm advection and ample sunshine through the early
afternoon, temperatures will soar into the 60s for many
locations. This could approach record warmth for several climate
sites (see Climate section below).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A fair amount of model consistency has been noted leading into
tonight`s system, but latest guidance has slowed it`s evolution
some. The 00z GFS is a bit of an outlier, tracking the low
further north than it`s brethren. Outside of the GFS, the model
consensus is leaning towards more of a southern track, keeping
the best rain chances across southern WV. The forecast has been
modified towards this trend, trimming the northern extent of
PoPs and overcast skies.

The low translates east of the area quickly Sunday. Another
strong ridge begins to build into the Great Lakes, eroding
clouds through Sunday evening. In the wake of the departing weak
low, slight warm air advection will establish with the building
heights. This will keep temperatures well-above average, but a
few degrees below today`s expected readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature
trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. A strong
upper level ridge and associated surface high will support dry
and warm conditions through Tuesday, followed by a fast moving
upper wave dragging a cold front across the region Tuesday
night. Despite the passage of the front, mid-level ridging will
quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough
amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the
central Plains by the end of period.

Model guidance appears to be handling the overall trends in the
upper level pattern well, with only minor differences in timing
of the front on Tuesday night and evolution of the system for
the end of the week. Thus, will stay close to a blend of
solutions with tweaks made to temperatures as the Superblend
tends to dampen anomalous values in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to carry through the day as high
pressure slides across the area. A passing low-level jet will
keep a few hours of LLWS before mixing begins. Clouds will
increase later today with the best chance of any precipitation
or MVFR CIG restrictions at KMGW. MVFR CIG restrictions are then
possible areawide Sunday morning.

.OUTLOOK...
The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday
cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures February 18:
Pittsburgh, PA           66 (2011)
Zanesville, OH           64 (2011/1994)
Morgantown, WV           73 (1981)
DuBois, PA               57 (1981)
Wheeling, WV             60 (2008)
New Philadelphia, OH     62 (1961)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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