Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 011655
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1255 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBED PATTERN WILL KEEP SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE
TREND IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DETERIORATION OF MORNING STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES HELD IN CHECK TO THIS POINT.
FURTHER MIXING OF DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS CLOUD
DECK AND BY EARLY EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A PLEASANT
EVENING ON TAP.

THINK THAT THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT EFFECTIVELY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE ARRIVES
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY WITH MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS THAT
COULD DISRUPT RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT...TRAJECTORY AND
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA WILL LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT
MAY FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE REGION...BRINGING A BRIEF DRY SPELL
TO ALL LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT TIMING FOR WHEN THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WOULD CROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH TIMING SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...PRIMARILY BECAUSE MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CREEP
UP A FEW DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DECAY...BUT TRANSITION FROM
IFR/MVFR STRATUS TO MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL BE GRADUAL WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IMPROVING QUIKER THAN OTHERS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH IN FKL/DUJ TAFS FOR
THE TIME BEING. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO FKL/DUJ IS LOW. ANOTHER ROUND
OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
TAX

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.