Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 151159
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY LIFT MID MORNING. ONLY
A FEW CIRRUS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO
AROUND 70 FAR SOUTH.

CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY
MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY
LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY
WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST
THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG
AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM.
WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR
TIMING PURPOSES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIMITED IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MVFR IN
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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