Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT HAS CROSSED THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPS GENLY XPCD TO INCR
VERY LITTLE RMNDR OF TDA OWING TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVCTN OFFSET
ONLY BY A FEW BREAKS IN CLD CVR. GUSTY NWLY WINDS XPCD TO CONT
THRU THIS EVE AS STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES PROMOTE MIXING.

SHRTWV TROF WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS SHWRS THIS AFTN AND EVE...SPCLY
NRN HALF OF FCST AREA. PROLONGED NWLY FLOW WILL INCR UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF WIND ON RDGS...WHERE POPS WERE INCRD TO CATEGORICAL
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ALTHOUGH RAIN AMTS WILL NOT BE HIGH...PCPN
XPCD TO BE MEASURABLE.

CLD CVR WILL PERSIST MUCH OF TNGT BUT MAY BGN TO CLR EARLY SUN
MRNG IN ERN OH ZONES. GIVEN LATE DEPARTURE OF ANY CLDS...FROST
DVLPMT APPEARS UNLKLY ATTM. PATCHY FROST MAY BE INCLD WITH LATER
FCST. OTHERWISE...MINIMA XPCD TO RMN IN MID-UPR 30S MOST AREAS.

PCPN IN RDG ZONES WILL CONT INTO THIS EVE BUT WILL BGN TO WANE AS
UPR SUPPORT PROGRESSES EWD. PREV SHIFT HAD CONFIDENCE THAT PCPN
WOULD END BY 06Z...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY LGT PCPN MAY
CONT THRU LATE TNGT. AFTER 06Z...THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES
MIXED IN WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN...BUT NO SGFNT ACCUMS XPCD.

SFC HIPRES WILL TRANSITION EWD ON SUN...WITH FLOW BCMG LGT TO SLY.
THIS SLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODEST INCR IN TEMPS FOR WRN ZONES BY
SUN AFTN...ALTHOUGH SUN GENLY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER THAN TDA
GIVEN CLD CVR LINGERING INTO MID-DAY. ONCE LOW CLDS VACATE...HIGH
CLDS XPCD TO INCR IN CVRG AS A JET MAX DVLPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHRTWV TROF APRCHG FROM NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIPRES WILL ATTEMPT TO ASSERT ITSELF SUN EVE BUT WILL BE
SUPPLANTED SWD LATE SUN NGT AS H5 TROF DIGS INTO GRTLKS RGN. SLY
WIND AND INCRD CLD CVR FROM MID-LVL JET WILL RETARD COOLING SUN
NGT AND WILL PREVENT FROST FROM BEING A CONCERN.

PCPN CHCS WILL INCR LATE SUN NGT AS MID-LVL SATURATED LYR DPNS AND
LWRS. POPS WERE LWRD SUN EVE...BUT WERE INCRD AFTER 20/06Z AS LGT
PCPN XPCD TO DVLP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO FAR WRN ZONES.

THE FIRST WAVE CROSSES MONDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING A SHOWER TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
THEN PREVIOUS RUNS ON WHERE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL END UP. IDEA NOW IS THAT SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF FURTHER
EAST...PROMOTING A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-NMRS RAIN SHWRS WILL BE SUSTAINED THIS AFTN NR AND N OF KPIT
AS SHRTWV TROF CROSSES GRTLKS RGN. NWLY SFC WIND WILL GUST 20-25KT
BFR SUBSIDING THIS EVE. MVFR CIGS XPCD RMNDR OF TDA...WITH VSBY
AND CIGS PSBLY LWR IN SHWRS.

STRATOCU WILL PERSIST TNGT AMID COLD ADVCTN AND LWRG INVERSION
HEIGHTS. CIGS LKLY WILL RMN IN MVFR CATEGORY THRU SUN MID-AFTN.

.AVIATION /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR





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