Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260138 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 938 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms north of Pittsburgh will end later tonight. Very warm and muggy conditions will remain through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Late evening update to adjust POPs as boundary and tail of shortwave aloft shifts east. Bulk of activity has remained across the north with a few strong to marginally severe storms. As low levels begin to stabilize showers and storms will diminish overnight. Hourly temperatures and dew points adjusted to latest observations. An eastward moving short wave trough moving across the eastern Great Lakes with best mid and upper level support well north of the region. Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a weak boundary/lake breeze across eastern Ohio into northwest PA. With plenty of low level instability these storms will continue to expand a bit and sink southeast through the evening, but coverage may not be as widespread as previously expected. With elevated dew points a warm and muggy night in store with well above average temperatures. Otherwise adjusted hourly temperatures and sky cover based on latest observations. Shortwave will be well east for Friday with quite warm and humid conditions as high pressure builds across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridge of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to build through the weekend. This, and a broad area of surface high pressure drifting across our north will keep our area dry through a majority of the weekend with a warming trend. Dewpoint temperatures will drop back down to around 60 by Friday night, but will slowly creep back up through Saturday and into Sunday. By Sunday, the very humid air mass will return with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s common. This, and a draw of warmer air from the south will combine for high heat indices that may near 100 degrees. How warm we get Sunday may largely depend on the arrival of clouds associated with a disturbance passing well to our north. Model guidance indicates the potential for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms as a mid-level wave tries to flatten the upper ridge. With the best forcing riding over the ridge and staying to our north, coverage of showers may be limited. Tax && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Little change in pattern is indicated through the first half of next week with the southern U.S. upper high maintaining grip, but with tropical system encroachment toward the Southeastern Coast. Shortwaves with the zonal flow over the immediate area would support periodic, and diurnally-supported precip chances for the long term. Low-confidence slight to chance POPs were maintained for that eventuality as per the latest Superblend guidance. Warm temperature can be expected given the lack of any significant airmass alteration. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms will encroach from the west during the early portions of the forecast. Expect coverage and intensity to continue to decrease overnight, so have only included restrictions in a tempo group. Shortwave that has sparked the activity will clear the area quickly this morning. Expect a quick return to vfr conditions after sunrise. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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