Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230112 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 912 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE. PREVIOUS... EARLY EVE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR RAPIDLY DIMINISHING STRATOCU DECK AS BNDRY LYR FLOW OFF THE LAKES IN WEAKENING AND BACKING TO THE WEST. DRY ADVCTN OFF THE SFC WL CONT FOR A WHILE THOUGH RESULTING IN A DRY HYDROLAPSE ADJACENT TO THE SFC. TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE UPR 30S AS RESIDUAL SFC MSTR DEWS...OR FROSTS OUT. PATCHY FROST MENTION HAS BEEN CONTD FOR THOSE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN AND SRN COUNTIES...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED ADJACENT TO THE RIDGES AS ELEVATED VALLEYS MAY SEE MID/ISOLD LOW 30S. THOSE AREAS RMN UNDR A FROST ADVISORY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PD AS MID/UPR LVL HTS RISE ACRS THE MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO CREEP UP THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT A PROGGED LACK OF FORCING AND OVRALL SBSDNC SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BEING A DECISIVE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS UPR RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVR THE ERN CONUS. ECMWF CONTS TO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS. PERSISTENCE RMNS THE PRUDENT RESPONSE AND A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN CONTD. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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RMNG STRATOCU WL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS COLD NW FLOW OFF THE LAKES WEAKENS AND AS TEMPS FALL BLO CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS. GENL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH STEAM FOG OFF THE RIVERS MAY TAINT THE NR DAWN WITH SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS AT PORTS IN VCNTY. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041. && $$ 15

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