Area Forecast Discussion
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482 FXUS61 KPBZ 172020 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 320 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Light rain will spread across the region this afternoon with a passing upper level disturbance. Warmer temperatures, cloudy skies, and light drizzle can be expected Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Light rain associated with lift from a weakening upper level shortwave will spread across the region through this evening. For the most part, temperatures are now well above freezing, save for the counties in the vicinity of a stationary boundary located near I-80. Here, temperatures are right around freezing and dewpoint depressions suggest that some saturation to wet- bulb temperature could support a brief window of snow or a mix, that is, if moisture can even make it that far north. Will still mention this mix in the forecast and continue to monitor ground temperature as the lack of insolation has slowed warmth of surfaces. While the shortwave departs tonight and little further forcing is anticipated, moisture trapped in the inversion may keep light rain or patchy drizzle across most of the forecast area through the night, with little difference in reasoning for much of Monday. Cloud cover and precip will maintain very little diurnal change for both tonight and Monday with values near seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Zonal flow is maintained, though weak ripples in the upper level pattern may be enough to generate additional light precip. Have cut back PoPs significantly since forcing remains weak and much of the moisture remains under about 2kft. Strengthening warm advection Tuesday ahead of a slightly more amplified wave will support above average temperature with values closer to normal in cold advection/northwest flow. Building surface ridge should lend to little more than cloud cover wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Zonal flow returns Thursday with some amplification in the upper level pattern as wave ejects into the Plains. This will be the next notable system progged to approach late in the period, with some differences between the guidance in timing. Stayed close to the Superblend for the end of the week with some moderation in warm advection to above average temperature by the end of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Light fog is stubbornly hanging on at FKL/DUJ, but expect it to thin out over the next couple of hours. VFR conditions will maintain through the remainder of the afternoon in most cases, with some light rain ahead of a warm front likely not causing significant restriction. Behind this boundary, an increase in low-level moisture and a developing inversion aloft will spell deteriorating conditions. Expect ceilings to fall to MVFR tonight areawide, and likely to IFR in at least some cases Monday morning. Drizzle and fog will become more prevalent as well. Light south/southwest winds will prevail through the TAF period. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Tuesday, as abundant low-level moisture may become trapped underneath an inversion for an extended period. IFR conditions are possible at times.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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