Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 162142 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 442 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Update to freshen up PoP grids based on double-band of showers currently lifting northeastward across the CWA. The main event will occur after midnight, as a strong push of isentropic lift arrives with the warm front, bringing more widespread rain. Temperatures will drop initially, thanks to wetbulbing, but a rise is indicated overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes, another shortwave passes, and the left exit region of the jet core moves over the forecast area. Temperatures are forecast to range 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year /climatologically this is the coldest week of the year/ as we stay in the warm sector and strong warm air advection continues. The parent upper trough will cross the region Wednesday with showers ending and slightly cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday. Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures and for surrounding office coordination. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A line of showers may bring brief MVFR restrictions, but otherwise VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR in warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm front. Further deterioration to IFR is expected by this evening as rain overspreads the area. Did not have confidence to include LIFR ceilings at terminals other than FKL/DUJ, but that will definitely be a possibility near the PIT metro area. Models also show the potential for LLWS to develop between sunrise and noon Tuesday morning north and west of Pittsburgh, but did not have enough confidence at this time to put this into the forecast either. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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