Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040146 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 946 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD CAT POPS ACROSS REGION AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTH TOWARD I-80...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN WV. AS LOW PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE SHIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SHUNTED EAST TO THE RIDGES BY DAYBREAK AND PUSH EAST OF THE RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS A BLEND OF MOS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INTO SUNDAY. A MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MIDATLANTIC COAST TO LAKE ERIE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MANAGE TO FLOAT UP FROM THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES...TO LEVELS AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS. TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALLOW MOISTURE TO RUN UP NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF PIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS START TO LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL. HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE MORE GENERAL RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE WITH A TUESDAY FRONT. EXPECTING FURTHER WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS AREAWIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. USED AN ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS...WITH DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC POPS. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. CONSIDERING THE SLOW SPEED OF THE PRECIPITATION AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL...IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HAVE GENERALLY ADDRESSED THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON ESTIMATED SPEED AND HI RES MODEL DATA THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE PROLONGED IFR VISIBILITIES IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...LOW MVFR/IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED AND WEAK MIXING. BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF PIT BY 12Z AND EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW TONIGHT EXPECT ESE TO NW WIND SHIFT. SPEED WILL STAY UNDER 10KTS. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.