Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 101958 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 258 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold temperatures and periodic snow chances can be expected for the coming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Light snow showers will be possible overnight as a shortwave crosses the region. Accumulations will be minimal as latest forecast soundings show moisture and temperature profiles not favorable for snow growth. Overnight lows again will be slightly below average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... After a dry and slightly warmer day, the longwave trough that has persisted over the northeast will deepen as a strong jet core enters the backside of the trough. Light snow will develop Monday night as moisture and lift increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. A couple inches looks likely across northern zones closer to the surface low by daybreak...with lesser amounts farther south. A second wave will quickly follow on Tuesday...reinforcing the longwave trough and shifting the trough axis east. This will set up strong cold air advection as flow aloft turns to the northwest. Lapse rates and inversion heights will quickly increase and allow for a long duration of lake effect snow potential across the I-80 corridor beginning Tuesday through Wednesday. Overall, minimal change was made to the inherited forecast and the potential for heavy snow across northern counties remains, therefore, the winter storm watch remains in effect for Monday night through Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upstream shortwave is projected to back flow to the west on Wednesday night, thus ending lake enhanced snow, before the reinforcing front spawns more snow showers on Thursday, and initiates more cold for Friday. Thereafter, another upstream trough is projected to flatten flow and moderate temperature briefly back toward the averages before cold frontral passage drops them again for the start of the new week. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR cigs will continue to lift over the next couple of hours in advance of the next fast moving shortwave, progged for tonight. All terminals should still see a period of VFR, with deterioration once again as the wave passes. Confidence in visibility restrictions is relatively low given the lack of moisture and lift, but brief MVFR and IFR restrictions are possible. Southwest wind will briefly veer westerly before shifting back to the SW tomorrow in advance of a more potent system, progged for Mon night. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions will come with low pressure progged for Monday night/Tuesday with restrictions continuing through midweek. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ007>009-015-016. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.