Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230955 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 555 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON AS THE WEEKEND GOES ON...WITH WARM AND STILL HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN BEFORE SUNRISE IN TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA STARTS THE DAY RAIN- FREE. RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST DAY OR SO COMBINED WITH A VERY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE HAVE ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THESE SHOWERS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY...HOWEVER COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL FAIL TO BE SUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE LONGITUDINAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SWEEPING TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF BY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES OF REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE RIDGES...WHILE POINTS TO THE WEST IN OHIO HAVE A FAR LOWER RISK OF A SHOWER. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE JET AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT KEEP HUMID AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROF SUN LEADING TO A DRYING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE OUT FASTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. IT NOW APPEARS THAT IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXIST WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SUN AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND OUT OF OUR AREA. MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. TAX && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR IMMEDIATE AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN INCLUDING TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES. TAX && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR AND IFR FOG IS COMMON AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF MOST SITES. MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.