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735
FXUS61 KPBZ 021806
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
206 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Mostly dry conditions are expected today outside of a
isolated shower. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Thursday
afternoon, with dry weather for the Fourth and Saturday.
Temperatures will gradually climb into the lower 90s through the
weekend into the start of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Mostly dry conditions today.
- Temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
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Mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected today. There is a low
probability (about 30%) for an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two
late this afternoon following the peak heating period. The region
looks to remain capped with elevated dry air, however, some light
northwesterly wind this afternoon could bring in some moisture from
Lake Erie. This combined with some buoyancy could produce some
isolated showers. With the loss of daytime heating, the slight
chance for showers will decrease and dry weather expected tonight.

After cooler temperatures Tuesday, area highs will be back in the
low to mid-80s for most. Lows will be near-average.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday, mainly in
the northern PA counties.
- Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth.
- Temperatures a few degrees above average.

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A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track
southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very
dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still, isolated thunderstorms
are possible (30%-45% chance) over the following PA counties:
Forest, Venango, Butler, eastern Mercer, Clarion, Jefferson,
Armstrong, Indiana, and northeastern Allegheny.

Given the dry air aloft and substantial surface-based CAPE, there
will be a conditional threat for downbursts IF more robust updrafts
are able to develop. Machine learning guidance does marginally
support a low-end severe weather threat as well. Will continue to
monitor this threat. Any convection will quickly diminish after
sunset with loss of daytime heating.

Afternoon temperatures forecast to be few degrees above seasonal
average, while temperatures Thursday night may drop a degree or two
below average.

Beautiful weather looks to be in store for the Fourth with sfc high
pressure and ridging overhead. Models do develop a few isolated
diurnal showers and thunderstorms in Ohio, but this is likely to
remain west of Coshocton and Muskingum counties. Otherwise, the
forecast looks great for outdoor plans and evening fireworks.
Temperatures will run no more than 5 degrees above average under
partly to mostly sunny skies, and heat indices in the mid to upper
80s outside of the ridges. Temperatures fall back to near-normal
Friday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry on Saturday.
- Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm
  chances returning Sunday and Monday.

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Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft should promote mainly dry and
warm weather again Saturday. Rising heights and southerly flow
should boost area highs into the upper 80s to near 90F. NBM probs
for 90F are highest across eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia
panhandle, and the Pittsburgh urban heat island (70%-85%). For other
areas, probabilities are generally around 35%-45% or lower in the
higher elevations.

The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week,
with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to
periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances returning.

On Sunday and Monday, 500 mb heights are still expected to approach
590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the region. High
probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees
on Sunday and Monday. The chances of Heat Advisory criteria remain
low as heat indices remain in the 90s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered diurnal CU will dissipate this evening with loss of
daytime heating. High clouds are expected to begin to increase
overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will be
light with an overall northwesterly component as sfc high
pressure is centered west of the region.

Outlook...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible with a Thursday cold front.
A lack of available moisture with the front will likely be a
limiting factor in storm development. VFR is then expected
through Sunday as high pressure moves across the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley/Lupo
NEAR TERM...Lupo
SHORT TERM...Rackley/Lupo
LONG TERM...Rackley/Lupo
AVIATION...88