Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191710 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 110 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clear skies today will only briefly be interrupted by a weak and dry cold front dragged through by a high latitude system moving east near James Bay. This will stunt the day-to-day warming trend that we`ve seen over the last several days, keeping highs near yesterday`s readings. Several models show low-level moisture associated with the weak front, dropping down from the southern Great Lakes this evening, eventually pooling near the higher elevations. This could bring additional cloud cover overnight to these areas, but the forecast will keep it scattered for now. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will re-build through the weekend, keeping it warm and dry. Despite an increase in cirrus and the ridge axis shifting east Saturday, increasing southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to climb further on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be about 15 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will push east allowing a cold front to reach the area late Sunday night into Monday, with a second cold front pushing east by Tuesday. Models also indicate an upper level trough should build across the region late in the period. Expect precipitation chances will increase from the west Sunday night with unsettled weather through the remainder of the period. Temperatures aloft will become quite cool/cold with the trough building in. However, surface temperatures should act to keep the precipitation in the form of a cold rain. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A VFR forecast was maintained through the TAF period. Any fog should remain tight to the valleys once again and should not impact most terminals, with the possible exception of HLG. Also, models are hinting at some stratocumulus development along the ridges late tonight. Included a scattered layer at LBE and MGW, but not expecting a ceiling restriction at this time. Southwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots this afternoon will fade to under 10 knots around sunset. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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