-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150442 AAD
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1242 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW. A CROSSING DISTURBANCE
IS LIKELY TO SPAWN SOME SNOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BEFORE DAWN. LOWER
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AS SEEN IN THE LOWER SFC TDS AND
CEILING HEIGHTS. THE RAINFALL RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS LIGHT
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES.
LINE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND CLEAR
MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE DAWN.

CAA AND A WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE SOME LES SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE POST DAWN MORNING
HOURS. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE CAT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE CAA IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE AND THE CORE OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW YORK.

THE AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO EXPECT STRATO CU
TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT COOLER HIGHS TODAY...MOST IF NOT
ALL READINGS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY.

ANOTHER MORE POTENT...BUT PROGRESSIVE SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND COMPLETE PASSAGE ON MONDAY. MDLS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS TROF...ESPECIALLY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL PHASING OF SRN STREAM FLOW...WHICH
WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DYNAMICS OF THE PCPN SPPRT.

NEVERTHELESS...CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO PROG CATEGORICAL POPS
OVR AREAS SOUTH OF I 80 INTO SUNDAY NGT. WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH
PROJECTED TO SAG OVR THE GREAT LAKES...MOST OF THE REGION WOULD
SEE PRIMARILY SNOW FOR THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH MID MARCH FILTERED
INSOLATION AND BNDRY LYR WARMTH MAY RETARD INTIAL ACCUMULATION ON
SUNDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVR SRN ZONES WHERE PCPN IS MORE
PROBABLE...AND WHERE WARM ADVCTN ABOVE THE SFC MIGHT SPPRT A MIX
FOR A FEW HRS.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IN THE MDL WORLD IS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
OMEGA FIELDS AS PROJECTED BY GFS AND NAM TODAY. NAM APPARENTLY
ONCE AGAIN IS EXPLODING ITS PCPN PROGNOSIS DUE TO THE OVERHEATED
WARM ADVCTN DYNAMIC...WHILE GFS VALUES ARE MUCH MORE REASONABLE.

AT ANY RATE...ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS FORECAST FOR THE REGION...BUT
TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RMN UNDR WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR
ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS AS WELL AS COLLABORATIVE HESITATIONS...HAVE ABSTAINED FM
ISSUING A WATCH FOR THOSE ZONES TDA. MID SHIFT WL HAVE A LOOK AT
THE NXT ROUND OF SOLNS AND LIKELY HAVE A MORE DECISIVE ANSWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM...DRIER AIR IS PROJECTED OVR THE
REGION ALNG WITH SUB NORMAL TEMPS. ANOTHER SHRTWV IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW IS THEREAFTER PROGGED
TO SPPRT CONTD COOL TEMPS AND CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. GENERAL VFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
FRONT...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO FKL AND DUJ BY DAWN.

LATEST MODELS SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A STRATO CU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT SETTLES IN. WILL KEEP VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ.

SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH NRN FLANK PCPN OF LOW
PRES CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY SPAWN SHWRS AND RESTRICTIONS LTR ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$