Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181855 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 255 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO AS OF THIS HOUR. IT IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE WIND SHIFT IN SURFACE OBS AND THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE ERIE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS THE MEAGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAINS WELL NORTH. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH CIRRUS REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30`S AND 40`S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60`S AND LOW 70`S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY`S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20`S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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