Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 011205 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 805 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will produce a few showers across the region this afternoon, with a slightly better chance for showers Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Closed low near KCVG will slowly wobble north through tonight with drier air wrapping into the system. This will allow for at least partly sunny skies today with mild temperatures. Still expect scattered to isolated showers to develop in weak bands as spokes of energy wind around the low. The upper low will continue to migrate northeastward tonight allowing for deeper layer southwesterly flow to become established. This will allow for the dry slot to make serious inroads into the CWA, which means most areas should dry out for at least a period going into Sunday morning. Temperatures will remain well above the seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center of the low passing near Lake Erie. As it does, the remaining moisture will fuel scattered rain showers, primarily north of Pittsburgh. Steepening low-level lapse rates and impressive wind shear could generate a few thunderstorms, but the lack of deep instability will likely limit overall growth. The low will still be in the neighborhood Monday, but with our location on the dry southwest quadrant, showers potential will be much more limited. Compressed diurnal ranges will exist through Monday, as highs will be near average, but lows will still be a few degrees above average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure establishes over our area for the middle of next week. This will bring dry conditions back to the area, with temperatures gradually increasing through the week. By the latter part of the week, temperatures will be well above-average. There are still a lot of questions as to when the next rain will approach. This is will largely be dependent on the timing of the digging trough through the center of the country middle of next week. Shower chances remain in the forecast for Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Patchy IFR fog and stratus will quickly improve to general VFR through the day. Showers expected to to scattered to isolated mainly this afternoon, but coverage not enough to include any restriction at any port. MVFR stratus may develop overnight, with some IFR possible at northern ports. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Isolated restrictions possible in showers or thunderstorms Sunday, followed by general VFR into mid week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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