Area Forecast Discussion
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921 FXUS61 KPBZ 041705 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1205 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week, with much colder air arriving for late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... With noon update, made additional changes to hourly temperatures and wind forecast. Previous... As the surface high shifts east later today increasing mid and high level moisture will will keep skies cloudy, as complex northern and southern stream shortwaves approach. Weak warm advection will keep temperatures near the seasonal averages this afternoon. Tonight...shortwaves in the northern and southern stream will quickly move east with a frontal boundary. As precip begins expect some wet bulbing, and this looks to allow for a rain snow mix over much of the area, with a period of freezing rain possible across the higher ridge elevations mainly in the evening. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on how long below freezing temperatures can remain in the ridges, so for now will highlight freezing rain possibility in the HWO. Elsewhere little snow accumulation is expected with weak warm advection helping temperatures to warm a bit overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... System will exit east early monday morning with precipitation ending. By later Monday night and Tuesday a strengthening low pressure area will move toward the lower Ohio Valley with rain spreading northeast across the region. Precip may start as a bit of freezing rain in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday, but strong warm advection will quickly bring plain rain for the daylight hours Tuesday. This system exits by Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be near the seasonal averages through much of the period, with the exception of above average temperatures Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next widespread chance for precipitation arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front, the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and into the weekend. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the front. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR and light sfc wind will prevail into the evening as high pressure slides across the region. Nevertheless, extensive upr and mid lvl cloud cover will persist via warm, moist advection in advance of an advancing shortwave. That system will spread rain/mix of snow and deteriorate conditions to low MVFR and IFR for tonight and early Monday. MVFR stratocu is then expected to persist into the afternoon given the cold flow off the Lakes in the wake of the surface front. .OUTLOOK... More restrictions are likely with, and in the wake of Tuesday low pressure. More restrictions will follow with a strong late week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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