Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020401 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1201 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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FOG AND ST WL CONT TO DVLP AS THE NGT PROGRESSES WITH AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD DVLPG WARM FRONT/WARM ADVCTN ALOFT ENHANCING THE INVERSION. A QUICKER MIX OUT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MRNG GIVEN THE IMPROVING SLY FLOW IN THE BNDRY LYR AND INCRSD SBSDNC UNDR SHRTWV RIDGING. THE INSOLATION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS REGION WIDE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... H5 RIDGE AXIS IS PERCHED ATOP THE REGION FOR ONE LAST PERIOD BEFORE WE ARE PUT BACK INTO REALITY WITH COOLER...MORE SEASONAL WEATHER. DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...THEY DO NOT OCCUR LONG ENOUGH NOR ARE THEY DEEP ENOUGH TO PROMOTE STATUS / DRIZZLE FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE /JEFFERSON CO PA S INTO EASTERN GARRETT/. OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING PRECIP ONSET CONTINUES TO BE THE COURSE OF ACTION. LATEST 12Z NCEP SUITE PORTRAYS THE THEME OF QPF REACHING WESTERN FRINGES OF CWA BY 15Z FRIDAY. CAT POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR THIS SYSTEM AS ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN. WET WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. DECENT WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH H8 WINDS OF 60KTS AND H5 NEAR 100KTS...SO GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD AND MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY YIELDS GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KNOTS. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL WITH DYNAMIC FORCING THE LARGE CONTRIBUTOR TO ANY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. A CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINS FORECAST. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM 14C TO 0C. DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCT AS THEY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 50S. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE AS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PASSES...BUT CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WITH VERY UNSTABLE LOW AND MID LEVELS DENOTED BY LAPSE RATES PUSHING 9CKM-1 SATURDAY WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. CYCLONE TRACK KEEPS WINDS WSW SAT NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WOULD OFFSET FROST DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL STAY MIXED ALLOWING FOR A MILD NIGHT THUR SO SIDED WITH THE WARMER NAM12 GRIDS...THEN TOOK A BLEND OF THE FORECAST AND BIAS CORRECTED MOSGUIDE GRIDS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NGT WITH FOG AND ST DVLPMNT ONCE AGAIN UNDR A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. IFR IS THUS FORECAST FOR ALL SITES...BUT IMPROVEMENT AFTR DAYBREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE RAPID THAN TDA GIVEN BTR MIXING AND SBSDNC CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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