Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220941 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 541 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and unsettled weather is expected through Today with a crossing upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return Sunday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Precipitation confined to a fairly narrow band of lake-enhanced showers culminating from moisture convergence parallel with the long axis of Lake Huron and extending southward over Lake Erie. This lake-to-lake connection will gradually drift to the east, as low-level flow slowly back later this morning. Precipitation chances will return across the Pittsburgh metro and downwind into the Ridges through midday. Eastern Ohio and the northern panhandle of West Virginia will see a drying trend through the day, as the focus of the showers shifts east. Cold advection from the northwest is driving temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s. As temperatures continue to dip, some of the lingering showers reaching the high terrain will change to snow showers. Considering how warm we`ve been, any accumulation should be minimal and on grassy surfaces. An tightening pressure gradient and mixing in cold advection should also result in gusty winds especially in the higher terrain, where gusts around 40 mph are expected. At this time, have not hoisted an advisory but have mentioned the wind gusts in the HWO. Today`s highs will be suppressed by the strong northwest flow and presence of clouds. Highs will be well below average, and tonight`s lows will be near the seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will begin dry as high pressure tracks well to our south. Deamplifying flow aloft and gusty southwest winds will allow clouds to decrease and push afternoon temperatures back up to climatology. Clouds will begin to increase again late in the day ahead of a quick-moving surface low/midlevel shortwave dropping across the Great Lakes. The best chance for showers late Sunday and Sunday night will lie north of Pittsburgh where the best low-level convergence will be seen, with some isolated activity possible along the ridges. The low will drag a front across Sunday night, which will bring temperatures back to below normal. Monday will feature lingering clouds in northwest flow, most numerous across the north, where a few isolated showers may continue. Skies should begin to clear Monday night as surface high pressure and upper ridging return. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Continued ridging aloft will maintain dry weather into Wednesday.A digging trough will cross the Mississippi River and begin to impact our region during the late week period, with our next decent chance of rain. The models differ on the fate of this trough at the end of next week, lending much uncertainty to precipitation chances and amounts. Temperatures will be near or just a bit below climatology through the period. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Improvement to VFR has already been achieved in most locations this morning. This is outside of a lake-enhanced band of showers which is currently keeping MVFR ceilings in for HLG. As this band gradually shifts eastward, temporary MVFR cigs could return to PIT/AGC/BVI. By midday, all locations are expected to fully return to VFR and last the balance of the TAF period. Expect wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts as the mixing deepens via cold advection at the top of the layer. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Periodic restrictions can be expected until high pressure approaches the region in the wake of a late Sunday/early Monday shortwave and associated weak front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.