Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222337 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 737 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 620PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO ONCE THE SUN SETS EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DWINDLE. TEMPS...POPS AND CLOUDS HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT CAPE VALUES RATHER LOW TODAY...EVEN WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY CHANCE THUNDER WORDING...AND THINK THAT FOR THE MOST PART STORMS WILL REMAIN UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS. WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TOMORROW. WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ONLY CHANCE POPS WERE CARRIED. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH KEEPS US CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS INTO SAT NGT...THEN STG RIDGING WL BLD IN ACRS THE GT LKS/OH VLY RGN THRU MON WITH DRY WEA EXPD. TEMPS WL AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGING WL PERSIST INTO MID WK WITH DRY AND WRM WEA. A CROSSING SHRTWV AND CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A THU PASSAGE WITH CHC POPS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS...FOLLOWED BY BLDG HIGH PRES TO FINISH THE WK. ABV AVG TEMPS WL RTN TO NR OR BLO AVG LVLS AFT THE LT WK FROPA. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINTAINED A VCSH MENTION WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMGW AND KDUJ BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AFTER DIURNAL SHWRS SUBSIDE...WITH LLVL MOISTURE POOLING...EXPG IFR FOG TO DVLP OVRNGT INTO ERLY SAT AS WELL. A PD OF MVFR DIURNAL CU CIGS ARE EXPD SAT MRNG BEFORE VFR RTNS BY AFTN. A SHWR IS PSBL SAT BUT COVG EXPD TO BE TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION ATTM. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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