Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281137 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 637 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY. WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK. COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES ARE BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT THEM TO BREAK UP FOR THE MOST PART BY 16Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z. BRING IN A LIGHT PRECIP MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PIT TAF. CL .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER SET OF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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