Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231937 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 337 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE. VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN ON SUN.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO. MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED... AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON WED.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 88/KRAMAR

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