Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160828 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 328 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will bring warmer temperatures Monday, with increasing rain chances Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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While Doppler radar is showing weak echoes moving across eastern Ohio and nrn West Virginia, this looks to be mid deck or virga with dry low levels under the mid deck. Frontal boundary will begin to push north later today with temperatures rising through the evening. Expect rain showers to slowly increase from south to north in the late afternoon, but still chance POPs. Possibility for a brief period of sleet across the north as precip begins with wet bulbing, but with a low probability have left out of grids for now. Temperatures will warm well into the 40s south, and reach near 40 north by evening. Not much of a diurnal drop in temperatures expected overnight with increasing deep moisture in warm advection. Temperatures will fall a bit mainly due to wet bulbing, as rain becomes widespread across the region overnight with an approaching shortwave.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes, with very mild temperatures ahead of the system. The parent upper trough will cross the region Wednesday with showers ending and slightly cooler temperatures.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday. Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures and for surrounding office coordination.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR through the day from S-N in warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm front. Further deterioration to IFR is expected by this evening as rain overspreads the area. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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