Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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640 FXUS61 KPBZ 130558 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1258 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC AIR WILL PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA TODAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL PERTAIN TO SNOW BANDS THE WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES HOLD. IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALSO DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS HEAD THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WSW TO COVER THE RIDGES IN WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED WITH A BLEND OF HIRES GUIDANCE. BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER THE RIDGES WITH THE LAKES MODIFYING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH AND STRONG UPSLOPE EXPECTED ALL DAY. THE FACTORS WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS BETWEEN 800 AND 700MB IN THE 1-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DOUBLE LAKE BAND FURTHER SOUTH...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BECOME LESS EFFICIENT OVER TIME AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE REACHES THE SURFACE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE... WEAKENING WINDS...AND A SNOW PACK WILL PROVIDE A SCENARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SCATTERING OF THE CLOUDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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BY MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT LANDED ON AN EXACT TRACK OR STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE LONG TERM WILL BE CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE TAFS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AT CLEVELAND SHOW 1/4SM VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY SNOW AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 30KT. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND OFF LAKE ERIE...STILL THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE AT EACH TERMINAL AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. THIS LINE SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL LOCAL TERMINALS BY 06Z. ALTHOUGH SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AT MOST TERMINALS...FKL IS LIKELY TO BE THE TERMINAL WITH THE LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A LAKE HURON- ERIE SNOWBAND TO SET UP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ZZV COULD MANAGE TO EITHER SCATTER OUT OR HAVE CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039- 048-049-057>059-068-069. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ040-041-050. PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-076. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ003- 004-012. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001-002-021- 509>514. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ510-512>514.
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