Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040602 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 202 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COMPLEX...ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO. LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT ENCOUNTERS SUBSIDENCE MOVING NORTHEAST ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH AND THE WAVE ITSELF SHEARS NORTHWARD BACK TOWARD THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS WELL AND SAT PICS...IN CORRELATION...ARE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS OHIO OVERNIGHT AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ISOLATED. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. NO CHANGE TO THE WARM AND HUMID. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OHIO FROM AROUND KZZV TO JUST NORTH OF KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE VFR THERE DUE TO ENHANCED SURFACE MIXING. HOWEVER...RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESIDE ACROSS ALL SITES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OR CONTINUE...WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS WHERE THE MOST RAIN FALL TODAY...SUCH AS IN THE VALLEY AROUND KHLG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY NOON TODAY...HOWEVER A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PROB30 WORDING AT THE MOMENT. FRIES OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN EARLY MORNING FOG.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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