Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280142 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA. HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD. FRIES OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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