Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271916 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 316 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Warm air aloft will limit potential for showers/storms the remainder of the day and have updated the forecast to show dry conditions outside of slight chances for the ridges. Overnight lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 60s and based on maximum dewpoints observed today after the lower levels were given plenty of time to mix, potential for any patchy fog looks minimal. Even warmer temperatures are forecast tomorrow as ridging pumps up further over the forecast area. With no meaningful shortwaves/triggers progged or foreseen, convective activity will again be largely capped off. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Any isolated showers/storms that do pop up should quickly dissipate Saturday evening as conditions stabilize. A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front should cross the region Thursday into Friday, with models still differing on how quickly the front will approach the area. Wednesday appears to be the warmest day in the period, although the entire extended forecast will continue to have above normal temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will persist this afternoon, but an isolated shower or storm is possible with a weak crossing disturbance. With showers currently developing along the ridges, have included VCTS for LBE and MGW considering their proximity. For overnight fog potential, have decided to go with a persistence forecast from last night, considering there is little change in the airmass. DUJ is the only terminal that had any extended period of restrictions early this morning, so have gone with a MVFR mention for fog there overnight and VFR conditions elsewhere. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend. Conditions should be dry Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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