Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 271608
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1208 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A cold front will bring showers into the early evening, followed
by dry and cool weather into Friday. Warmer but unsettled weather
is anticipated for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Cold front now entering eastern Ohio with pre-frontal band of
showers now beginning to cross the ridges. Still expect scattered
showers with FROPA, while more significant rainfall will shift
east of the ridges. Mild temperatures ahead of the front will fall
off by late afternoon.
Behind the cold front tonight brisk and colder in northwest flow
behind the front. Only isolated evening showers, otherwise dry for
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold advection behind the departing low pressure will be brief,
but shower chances will continue tonight, mainly over the north
and east. Some snow may mix in as well, especially north of I-80
and in the high terrain. Expect any precipitation to end late
tonight as inversions lower.
High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley Friday, with
decreasing cloud cover as warm air advection ensures.
With the progressive upper level pattern, another system is
expected to approach late on Saturday. However, models are still
showing little agreement on how much impact, precipitation wise,
this next system will have on the area. Felt a model blend was
best for the Saturday forecast. Strong warm advection Saturday,
will allow for temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models are in relatively good agreement for the start of the
long term, with another shortwave expected to cross along a slow
moving boundary over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. After this time,
the models evolve the next low pressure system over the northern
Plain/Canadian border differently, so a blend of model guidance
was used. Overall, expect temperatures to remain at or just
slightly above seasonal averages through the period.
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR across all terminals this
morning as a a cold front approaches. While some upstream obs are
IFR, confidence in widespread IFR conditions is low, with
anticipated low level mixing i.e gusty wind. Before the wind
ramps up, LLWS will continue with a strong low level jet right
Once mixing ensues, gusts to 25kts will be possible, with a wind
shift anticipated with the front around 18-20z.
MVFR conditions will continue through much night, with
improvement late in the 30-hour TAF period.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR returns by Friday. More restrictions are possible this
weekend with another front.