Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271608 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1208 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring showers into the early evening, followed by dry and cool weather into Friday. Warmer but unsettled weather is anticipated for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cold front now entering eastern Ohio with pre-frontal band of showers now beginning to cross the ridges. Still expect scattered showers with FROPA, while more significant rainfall will shift east of the ridges. Mild temperatures ahead of the front will fall off by late afternoon. Behind the cold front tonight brisk and colder in northwest flow behind the front. Only isolated evening showers, otherwise dry for the overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold advection behind the departing low pressure will be brief, but shower chances will continue tonight, mainly over the north and east. Some snow may mix in as well, especially north of I-80 and in the high terrain. Expect any precipitation to end late tonight as inversions lower. High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley Friday, with decreasing cloud cover as warm air advection ensures. With the progressive upper level pattern, another system is expected to approach late on Saturday. However, models are still showing little agreement on how much impact, precipitation wise, this next system will have on the area. Felt a model blend was best for the Saturday forecast. Strong warm advection Saturday, will allow for temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The models are in relatively good agreement for the start of the long term, with another shortwave expected to cross along a slow moving boundary over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. After this time, the models evolve the next low pressure system over the northern Plain/Canadian border differently, so a blend of model guidance was used. Overall, expect temperatures to remain at or just slightly above seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR across all terminals this morning as a a cold front approaches. While some upstream obs are IFR, confidence in widespread IFR conditions is low, with anticipated low level mixing i.e gusty wind. Before the wind ramps up, LLWS will continue with a strong low level jet right around 2kft. Once mixing ensues, gusts to 25kts will be possible, with a wind shift anticipated with the front around 18-20z. MVFR conditions will continue through much night, with improvement late in the 30-hour TAF period. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR returns by Friday. More restrictions are possible this weekend with another front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.