Area Forecast Discussion
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178 FXUS61 KPBZ 301746 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 146 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain showers to the upper Ohio Valley late today through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Elevated instability evident on 12Z soundings will be tapped as a weak wave crosses the region and initiates convection through early afternoon. Most locations will see dry conditions from mid-afternoon until early evening as the warm front begins to lift over the forecast area and coverage increases substantially. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible through the night as well as model soundings maintain marginal elevated instability. Rain will be moderate at times overnight with favorable dynamics...especially north and east of a line running roughly from Zanesville to Dubois. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain showers will continue early Friday as the upper low moves overhead. It appears that a dry slot will bring to an end the widespread precipitation by midday, but scattered showers and/or drizzle will likely continue with low level moisture trapped under building subsidence inversion through Fri night. Surface ridge will start to build overhead on Saturday, but northwest flow and cold advection will likely keep skies cloudy for a good part of the day. High pressure will support dry conditions on Sunday. Temperatures will remain just slightly above averages on Friday and return to seasonal values for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Active weather pattern continues starting with the approach of the next low pressure system sometime Monday. With plenty of uncertainty apparent in the new model runs, especially in regard to low placement evolution, opted to use a model blend. Temperatures will generally stay close to or slightly above average for early April. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue this evening ahead of a broad low pressure system. Largely handled these with VCSH and VCTS, but a quick amendment may be necessary for individual ports as cells move over. Tonight, the more organized system will approach leading to a deterioration to at least IFR conditions that will linger through Friday. A strong low-level jet will accompany the cold front late tonight leading to possible llws concerns. Surface flow will gradually transition from southeasterly to south and eventually southwesterly as the low moves through Friday. Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Saturday as broad low pressure moves slowly across the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.