Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210113 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 913 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening ahead of a front. After a relatively quiet Friday, a wet weekend appears likely, perhaps with more strong storms Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weak boundary has sagged into the area without any further impetus to further perpetuate its continued southerly travels. Thus, it will linger over the area, providing a conduit for continued convective debris to float down through the night. While it does remain overhead, instability has really diminished owing to a few factors: the diurnal, an unfavorable upper level thermal environment, and a lack of synoptic scale support. Thus, once the ongoing weak convection in the southeastern portions of the area fades, no additional rainfall is anticipated for the remainder of the night. Convective debris and a soupy boundary layer should keep temperatures up well above climo at all sites overnight. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Will hang on to some slight chance PoPs on Friday across the southern counties as there is still a touch of uncertainty just how far south the boundary will be pushed by tonight`s activity. The models also look a touch slower with the next wave in the northwest flow pattern, and have backed off precip chances a bit here. The weekend looks wet, as Great Lakes low pressure passes to the north, and several shortwaves run down the northwest flow. Flow over our area turns more zonal by Sunday, which will slow progression of the associated frontal boundary. Kept likely PoPs going through this period with several rounds of rain expected. Rainfall totals will have to be watched for problematic areas. Additionally, there appears to be a risk for severe storm Saturday, especially if some cloud breaks can form, given decent mid-level flow. Temperatures will start a slow fall this period, held in check by the clouds and rain. Minimal changes were made. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A general Great Lakes/northeast U.S. trough will be carved out by Monday, with this pattern holding into mid-week. Temperatures will fall back to near or just below normal during this period. After lingering precipitation Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday appear dry at this distance. A return to northwest flow may herald increasing rain chances Thursday. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 2330Z, most lightning has come to an end across the region, and have removed all mention of thunder in TAFs. Showers will continue to affect terminals from Pittsburgh to the south and east into the evening hours, with diminishing coverage after midnight. Considering most locations received at least some rainfall, have added a mention of fog at all TAF sites, especially considering the last two 12Z soundings at Pittsburgh have shown an extremely shallow layer of moisture at the surface. Added IFR mentions at locations that dropped to those conditions earlier this morning. Some scattered convection may occur at Zanesville Friday afternoon, but did not have enough confidence to include in the TAF at this time. .OUTLOOK... Additional rounds of storms are expected through the weekend, and morning fog is possible as well. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.