Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 232321 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 621 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday. Conditions should be dry for the beginning of the work week, with rain returning to the forecast by Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A surface trough will continue to meander to the southeast this evening, bringing any surface-based precipitation with it as it exits. However, a band of 700-500 mb moisture remains in its wake generally on a Columbus-Pittsburgh axis out of which a few scattered showers are currently falling. Model projections heave this band only ever-so-slowly drifting southeastward through the night, so PoPs were altered to account for scattered showers with this weak band of mid-level moisture ahead of a strongly stretched mid-level vort field. Fries && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The most intense rainfall is expected to occur Saturday night, with several locations expected to receive an inch of rain overnight. Have continued with heavy rain mention across the entire forecast area during the early morning hours. The cold front will move through Sunday, bringing a brief period of gusty winds but also bringing an end to the rainfall. The weather will be dry Sunday night and Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will remain above normal behind the front, with highs dropping from the 60s on Sunday to the 50s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended period of the forecast will begin dry, but models begin to diverge in their treatment of the next storm system by Wednesday. The 12Z ECMWF has slowed down the arrival of the next storm system, with the 12Z GFS remaining more progressive. Until models show a bit more consistency, haven`t made much in the way of changes to chances for rain. Temperatures will remain a bit above normal until Friday, when they should return to normal. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR/local IFR stratus should continue overnight as an initial warm front completes its passage this evening, followed by a cold front overnight. Cigs should lower and become more widespread IFR toward morning as the front stalls across the OH Valley. A wave of low pressure tracking along the front should maintain maintain mainly IFR conditions Sat as more rain moves across the area. OUTLOOK... Restrictions are expected to continue with a Sat night warm front, and a Sun cold front.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Numerous forecast points are already at action stages across the region. Pittsburgh is currently over 20 feet. 2 successive disturbances over the next 48 hours will drop rainfall amounts ranging from 1.00 to 3.00 inches across the region. River Flood watches will likely be expanded across the region. With QPF, we expect river flooding to be widespread by Sunday afternoon. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>514. && $$

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