Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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778 FXUS61 KPBZ 021519 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1119 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions are expected today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon, followed by dry weather for the Fourth and Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mostly dry conditions today --------------------------------------------------------------- Update... Dense Fog Advisory has been expired. Morning fog/stratus will continue to dissipate as the region continues to experience diurnal heating. Previous discussion... Mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected after the fog mixes out. Can`t rule out a stray shower or two this afternoon during peak heating, but the region looks to remain capped, and the probability for any development is low. Dry weather continues tonight. After cooler temperatures Tuesday, area highs will be back in the mid-80s for most. Lows will be near-average. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. - Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth. - Temperatures a few degrees above average. ---------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still, isolated thunderstorms are possible. NBM probs give a 20-35% chance for rain in the afternoon, mostly across PA. Given the dry air aloft and quite substantial sfc-based CAPE, should note that there will be a conditional threat for downbursts... if more robust updrafts are able to develop. Machine learning guidance does marginally support a low-end severe weather threat as well. Will continue to monitor this threat. Any convection will quickly diminish after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Afternoon temperatures should remain a few degrees above seasonal average, while temperatures Thursday night may dip a degree or two below average. Beautiful weather looks to be in store for the Fourth with sfc high pressure and ridging overhead. Models do develop a few isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms to our west, but this will likely remain outside our forecast area. The chance for a stray shower across eastern Ohio is low enough to preclude any mention. Otherwise, the forecast looks great for outdoor plans and evening fireworks. Temperatures will run a few degrees above average under partly to mostly sunny skies, and heat indices in the mid to upper 80s outside of the ridges. Temperatures fall back to near-normal Friday night && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry through the first half of the holiday weekend - Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm chances returning Sunday and Monday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft should promote mainly dry and warm weather again Saturday. Rising heights and southerly flow should boost area highs into the upper 80s to near 90F. NBM probs for 90F are highest across eastern Ohio and the Pittsburgh urban heat island (75-80%). Elsewhere, probs are generally around 20-30%. The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week, with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning. Even as the ridge flattens, 500 mb heights are still expected to approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. However, the chances of Heat Advisory criteria remain low as heat indices remain in the 90s. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered diurnal cumulus layer should be in place through the afternoon. High clouds are expected to begin to increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will be light with an overall northwesterly component with sfc high pressure centered west of the region. Outlook... Isolated thunderstorms are possible with a Thursday cold front. A lack of available moisture with the front will likely be a limiting factor in storm development. VFR is then expected through Sunday as high pressure moves across the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley NEAR TERM...WM/Rackley SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley/Lupo AVIATION...88