Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310504 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 104 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid week. A disturbance will increase rain chances Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Clear skies and calm winds tonight under high pressure, with temperatures closer to the seasonal averages. Abundant sunshine Tuesday under high pressure with high temperatures about 5 degrees above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Subsidence with high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather into Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter, general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold front approaching Wednesday night and over the region Thursday. Have generally persisted with precipitation probabilities, which were gradually escalated on Wednesday night and into Thursday despite some guidance indicating more rapid onset. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in advance of that feature, forecast for which was constructed via tweaked superblend guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and temperatures at or below superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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General VFR for the forecast period. Exception will be the risk for pre-dawn fog. Confidence is low on the extent and density of possible fog, so used yesterday`s obs as a guide. With the exception of LBE forecast mvfr fog, with lifr possible at LBE. Any fog that does form will burn off quickly with sunrise. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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