Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240423 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1223 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A couple of crossing disturbances will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio Valley Region for late Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No changes were needed for the midnight update. Eastward shifting high pressure in advance of a Plains-to-Great Lakes shortwave will ensure a humidity return today, and an increase in rain chance by tonight. That system is progged to be the first in a series which will traverse the northern flank of the persistent Southeast CONUS ridge, and maintain periodic precip chances through Thursday. With little change in pattern as the disturbances will lack ridge erosion power, expect above average temperatures with the more humid weather, forecast of which was constructed using consensus short and superblend guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Given the strength of the upper ridge, southward frontal penetration is questionable, but will generally persist with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest deterministic trends. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The GFS brings in the early week system a little faster, spreading QPF across our northern counties by Sunday night. Sticking close to the Superblend, which keeps the bulk of the rain threat confined to Monday. Confidence thereafter lowers as guidance diverges with diagnosing amplification of upper-level flow pattern. As has been the general trend, temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure should maintain VFR conditions until tonight. An approaching shortwave is expected to result in an increase in clouds by late afternoon, though any shower restrictions should be after the end of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /Thursday THROUGH SUNDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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