-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280834
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TODAY WITH
A DRYING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO DO THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CLEARED THE AREA BY ABOUT 05Z. THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING IN ACROSS OUR
SOUTH WORKING TOWARDS A TEMPORARY DRYING TREND...AND EVEN BREAKING
UP THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VORT LOBE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS SWINGING THROUGH LAKE ERIE CURRENTLY.
ALREADY SEEING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING OFF
OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKING THEIR WAY ON SHORE NEAR
KCLE. HAVE THIS WAVE TIMED TO REACH OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY ABOUT
09Z WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH MID-MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TODAY...STRENGTH
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY WANES. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS AS
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTS
IN BEHIND THE LOW. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE EROSION OF THE LLVL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND THUS HAVE SPED
UP THE DRYING TREND TONIGHT.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DURING MIDWEEK...AS UPPER LOW CENTER SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK VORT MAXES WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE TROUGH IN PLACE...H500 HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON A SLOW INCREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...FROM READINGS AROUND 70 ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70S ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW DIURNALLY-FORCED ISOLATED
SHRA EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NW PA ON
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BETTER...AND CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED IN
MOST AREAS. UPPER COLD POOL ALSO PASSES OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO. THURSDAY WILL SEE LESS ACTIVITY...AND LITTLE THUNDER
CHANCE...AS COLD POOL SLIDES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE THEIR
RISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
H500 HEIGHTS RISE A BIT MORE FRIDAY..ALLOWING A FEW LOCATIONS TO
TOUCH THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS. ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW. MODELS THEN HINT THAT THE TROUGH
GETS REINFORCED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES
BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BETTER SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS
WELL...WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MINOR WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE TROUGH. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...NO MAJOR SYSTEMS OR SUMMER HEAT
FORESEEN.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN ALOFT WITH CLOUD COVER AT VARYING STAGES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CONTINUING TO BREAK UP AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECTING STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT...BUT
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT PINPOINT. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL GIVE RISE
TO SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW WILL COMBINE FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP TONIGHT.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$