Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 252247 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 647 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with a Monday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure will slowly edge from near Lake Ontario this evening toward the Hudson River overnight. This will allow for surface flow to slowly turn southeasterly over much of the area overnight. Dry advection will wane this evening with dewpoints likely creeping up from the southeast overnight as more moist marine air advances northward up the east side of the ridges. Some of this will become manifest as stratus into Tucker and Garrett County, while the vast majority of the area will remain clear overnight and still very dry. Some mid and high clouds will start to encroach from the west by morning, however most areas will have another dry and cool night before the first rain-maker in days approaches for Monday. Fries && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio. Likely to categorical precip probabilities are forecast with this eventuality, while increasing deep layer shear may support possible severe thunderstorms. That potential will be dependent on timing, surface dewpoints, clouds, and resulting instability levels, magnitude of which does not look strong enough to initiate any alarms today. Showers are forecast to exit eastward with the front during the evening with dry and cooler conditions following on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the closed low is progged to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes, and increase clouds and shower chances for the immediate area. Temperature about 5 degrees under the rapidly falling averages was forecast using Superblend guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The latest deterministic trends are of a persistent cutoff low somewhere over the Mid Atlantic or Great Lakes States during the long term. Have opted for a NAEFS mean solution which is of troughing over the Upper Ohio, without the inconsistent magnitude of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions. Long term POPs are thus in the slight, to low-end chance range, with a temperature prog which allows a recovery to, then a couple degrees above the seasonal averages by next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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General VFR is forecast through Monday morning with condition deterioration thereafter in response to precip with an approaching cold front. Generally expecting MVFR restrictions accompanying any stronger shower or thunderstorm, but temporary IFR visibilities and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Winds will gradually strengthen Monday morning as they swing around from the south. A sharp wind shift to the west will then accompany the cold front, with gusts occasionally 15-20 knots. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restriction is expected under deepening mid week low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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