Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301033 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 533 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS. A DRY SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER STORM FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES WILL BE CRANKING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATIONS WERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS. STEERING WINDS BEGIN TO SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DRIVE THE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS MY ENTIRE CWA. THE SNOW SHOWER THREAT WILL WANE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE VEERING AND SHEAR IN THE WINDS AND ALSO THE LOWERING OF INVERSIONS. THE RIDGES WILL HOLD ONTO SNOW SHOWERS THE LONGEST THANKS TO THE ALWAYS PERSISTENT OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. HIGHS WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL END IN THE RIDGES THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER SNOW PRODUCING STORM SUNDAY. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE VARIED GREATLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO THERE STILL IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE 21Z SREF SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO BE A NICE MIX OF THE 00Z NAM AND GFS. IF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK COMES TO FRUITION...HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD...WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHSN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEST OF THE RIDGES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THEM GOING ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW...WHILE CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE ONCE SNOW ENDS...HLG IS ALREADY VFR. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH...THINK MVFR CIGS MAINTAIN THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW MOSTLY SHUTS OFF BY 00Z...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE W AND NW AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-016-023-074-076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023- 041. && $$

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