Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291324 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 924 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING ERN RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES...BUT OVERALL A SUNNY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THURS HIGHS. WARM AND MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 10C AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS UP ABOUT 5C...THIS WILL KEEP OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING OFF SIMILAR TO THURS NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN...SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL HUMIDITY LEVELS. ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH THE ADDITION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS SHOWING A NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO/PA SUNDAY MORNING. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING THIS DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND POSITION IS A BIT DIFFERENT. A PRETTY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SUSTAIN AND MOVE THE COMPLEX EASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL BE STABILIZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TIME OF DAY WILL NOT ASSIST WITH INTENSITY OF THE COMPLEX. WITH CURRENT DATA...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT SEVERE THREAT...BUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE SAT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY. EXPECT CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIODS AS THE MODELS PROVIDE A BETTER LOOK AT THE OVERALL SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES... HIGH HUMIDITY AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DRY SFC HIGH PRES UNDR WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT WL ENSURE GENL VFR AND LGT SFC WIND THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND WAS ALSO INCLUDED AT KFKL BASED ON DEW POINTS CLIMO. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SHWRS...TSTMS...AND RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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