Area Forecast Discussion
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133 FXUS61 KPBZ 242141 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 541 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of crossing disturbances will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio Valley Region tonight and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Ridging should move east of the area this evening as a shortwave approaches from the Midwest. Increasing clouds and shower chances are expected tonight with the approach and passage of the wave. A few thunderstorms are also possible west of PIT this evening where sufficient diurnally driven instability is progged before waning later tonight. Lows are expected to be around 10 degrees above seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect a decrease in precip chance Thursday morning as the first shortwave exits, though chances should increase again through the day with the approach of a front. The northern zones are progged to be in a favorable environment to experience more numerous convection Thursday as the front sags southward. Fueled by day time surface heating and increased flow aloft, some thunderstorms may reach severe criteria, but overall coverage and intensity should be marginal across the region as instability remains limited by very warm mid level temperatures. Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Given the strength of the upper ridge, southward frontal penetration is questionable, but will generally persist with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest deterministic trends as flow becomes zonal. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flow is expected to back to a southwesterly direction as an upper high enhances and shifts towards the Mid-Atlantic. As a result of the strengthening ridge, anonymously high surface temperatures and upper heights are predicted by ensemble models and have led to higher confidence in raising forecast temps early in the period. Overall, hot and humid conditions can be expected in the beginning of the long term until the passage of a shortwave on Monday provides some relief from the heat. POPs were maintained in association of the aforementioned shortwave as per the latest Superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Few Cirrus across the region this evening, otherwise expect mid clouds to increase later tonight as a shortwave approaches. Showers will encroach from the west overnight, but coverage may be limited due to lack of low level instability. Only mentions of VCSH overnight, with a better chance of restrictions Thursday as main shortwave arrives. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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