Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271613 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1213 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMP FORECAST IS GENLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH CLD COVER ALNG NWD LIFTING CNVRGNC HAVE RETARDED HEATING OVR COUNTIES BTN THE PA TURNPIKE AND I 70. TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALNG THAT ZONE OVR CNTRL AND WRN OH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONT DVLPG EWD. OVRALL TRENDS CONT TO FAVOR A SEVERE EVENT LTR THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS THE PARENT LOW CONTS DVLPG OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXP STG TO SVR TSTMS TO DVLP THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES. INCLUDED TEMPO TSTM MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH PORT. EXP MVFR TO REDEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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