Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 010906 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 506 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will continue to produce a few showers across the region into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The semi-resident upper low will continue to reside in the Ohio Valley through the near term forecast period. Hi-res models have started to catch onto where shower development has been ongoing in bands around the upper low overnight. Additionally, they seem to be handling the influx of deeper layer dry air evident on water vapor imagery that is advecting into the area. This combined with a bit of an easterly jaunt of the S-N oriented jet streak that develops on the east side of the upper low, which results in upper divergence trends generally east of the Chestnut Ridge. This means dynamical forcing over our area will not be all that impressive. However, as the upper low starts to meander northeastward a bit through the day, colder mid-level temperatures will allow for steeper lapse rates to favor the formation of a shower or two, especially over the northwestern CWA. With dry air seemingly set to win the battle over the area, just scattered to isolated showers were carried for most areas through the day. With drier air moving in, it stands to reason that a few more breaks in the clouds are likely today. This combined with a slow trending of low level flow from the east to southwest during the day should allow temperatures to go up several degrees from those seen on Friday. The upper low will continue to migrate northeastward tonight allowing for deeper layer southwesterly flow to become established. This will allow for the dry slot to make serious inroads into the CWA, which means most areas should dry out for at least a period going into Sunday morning. Fries && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Slow moving low will accelerate eastward Sunday, with the center of the low passing near Lake Erie. As it does, the remaining moisture will fuel scattered rain showers, primarily north of Pittsburgh. Steepening low-level lapse rates and impressive wind shear could generate a few thunderstorms, but the lack of deep instability will likely limit overall growth. The low will still be in the neighborhood Monday, but with our location on the dry southwest quadrant, showers potential will be much more limited. Compressed diurnal ranges will exist through Monday, as highs will be near average, but lows will still be a few degrees above average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure establishes over our area for the middle of next week. This will bring dry conditions back to the area, with temperatures gradually increasing through the week. By the latter part of the week, temperatures will be well above-average. There are still a lot of questions as to when the next rain will approach. This is will largely be dependent on the timing of the digging trough through the center of the country middle of next week. This digging trough looks to play an important role on the evolution and potential impacts of Hurricane Matthew. We will continue to monitor these features very closely, but at this very early stage, impacts to our forecast area do not appear likely. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weakening surface flow will be evident over all sites through the night. Combined with scattered showers, this should allow CIGs to trend downward through the night, however VIS restrictions should be minimal and fairly local. Drier air will move into the area on Saturday in the mid-levels, however colder air aloft will mean showers should redevelop with the upper low drifting nearby. Even still, conditions should largely improve to VFR at most sites. Fries .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Brief IFR/MVFR restrictions will linger into Monday when the upper level low finally departs. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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