Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221220 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 820 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LAPSE RATES LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN BELOW AN INVERSION LEVEL OF AROUND 4 KFT THIS MORNING IN STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION. VERY MINIMAL SHEAR AND AMPLE LAKE TO INVERSION LEVEL DELTA-T VALUES HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN A COUPLE OF FAIRLY COLD LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ERIE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE BANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES SEVERAL MORE HOURS...SO POPS WERE EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES FOR THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...SATURATION AT THE INVERSION LEVEL WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD ON TO ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEPS TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT LEAST TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INCLUDED ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE...DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO TO WHERE FROST WOULD NOT BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...THIS BEARS WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS TREND LOWER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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