Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281558 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1158 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure will slowly decrease cloud cover and keep the area cool and dry today. Warmer temperatures and increasing precipitation chances return Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Clouds have been slow to clear in lingering northwest flow this morning. Still think that overall coverage will diminish as enough mixing of dry air takes place to lift and scatter out the clouds with high pressure in place. Still, do not think we will see enough sun and warm advection will remain weak, so today`s highs were kept just below normal. Clearing skies and light wind should help temperatures to fall early, but strong warm advection aloft should slow the cooling by the latter half of the night as the next system approaches. Thus, temperatures were generally kept above seasonal numbers. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level flow will become zonal on Saturday, but we will still see an influx of warmer air, as the lower and mid-level flow turns to the southwest. With a lack of a strong push from the upper levels, the next system will struggle to make much southward progression late Saturday. Decreased the southward intrusion of PoPs late Saturday and Saturday night. With the aforementioned warm air advection, Saturdays highs will be close to 10 degrees above normal. Surface front will finally begin to push southward late Saturday night and Sunday as the main shortwave crosses the Great Lakes and eventually the Upper Ohio Valley. Showers will spread over the entire region Sunday, with the surface boundary reaching the Mason-Dixon line by afternoon. Upper level support remains weak, so would think that shower activity would be scattered. With clouds and rain, temperatures on Sunday will return to near normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper Ohio Valley will be on the top side off strengthening mid level ridging into Wednesday, with above average temperatures. The ridge will retrograde mid week, allowing a frontal system to slide south of the region Thursday. With timing of this system in doubt, slight chance POPs were included. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR conditions should gradually improve to VFR as high pressure briefly builds overhead and we lose the moisture fetch off of Lake Erie. VFR will then prevail through the rest of the period with light wind shifting from WNW to SE. Strengthening low level jet tonight will bring the risk for wind shear. So, this has been included in several of the terminals through sunrise. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... General restrictions are again possible with a Sunday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.