Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 062206 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 606 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY EAST OF PITTSBURGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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ONE DEFORMATION BAND WHIRLING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS SLOWLY BEING ERODED AS DRY AIR CONTINUALLY FEEDS INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE WEST UNDERNEATH IT. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THIS UTTERLY ABHORRENTLY...AND LARGER SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING A SUPERIOR JOB. THAT SAID...LIKELY RADAR INITIALIZATION OF THE HI-RES MODELS IS THE CULPRIT FOR THIS DUE TO THE EXPANSIVE VIRGA ON RADAR...AND AS SUCH THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM/GFS THAN THE HRRR/HRRRX. THIS LEAVES METRO PITTSBURGH AS ABOUT THE FARTHEST WEST ANY RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DEFORMATION BAND FALLS APART AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...CLEARING WILL LIKELY BECOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN OHIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD HERE DUE TO A LACK OF CLOUDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. FRIES PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MADE RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAIN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL LOCATIONS...GOING WITH CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FRIDAYS HIGHS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN RACING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY...SPLIT BETWEEN LEFTOVER SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SATURDAYS COLD FRONT SHIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VALUES REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BRING INCRG SHOWER/PSBL TSTM CHCS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RIDGING SHOULD THEN RETURN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE RGN BY BEFORE A MIDWEST TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE PERIOD. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THU FOLLOWING RECENT MODEL TRENDS. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EXCEPT FOR OHIO SITES...LOCATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN OUT OF THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY MID EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL LESSEN THIS EVENING AS AN INVERSION SETS UP. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT...AND A LATE MON/TUE WARM FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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