Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242147 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 547 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF A RATHER BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REALLY FAIL TO FALL OFF MUCH MORE THAN THEY ALREADY ARE IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SO WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DROP DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING...EVEN WITH A DEARTH OF WIND DURING THE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING HOURS...THERMAL FREE FALL IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED. THAT SAID...CURRENT RESIDENT DEWPOINTS TO OUR NORTH ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S...SO AREAWIDE MID 40 TO LOWER 50 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON. THIS IS STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD LOW FOR TONIGHT...51F FROM 1953. WILL BE EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THAT READING BY MORNING AT THE AIRPORT. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A COMFORTABLE FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MORE ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES DIGGING TWD THE NRN PLNS. SWD DIPPING JET IS LIKELY TO INCRS DEEP LYR SHEAR OVR THE REGION AND MAY SPPRT SVR TSTM CHCS SHOULD TIMING/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COOPERATE. FOR NOW...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS TOUCHED THE UPR OH REGION WITH A SLGT RISK...AND THAT SITUATION WL BE FURTHER EVALUATED DURING THE NXT CPL OF DAYS AS CURRENT MDLS SUGGEST MRNG PASSAGE OF THE NECESSARY SHRTWV SPPRT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PHASING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WITH A JAMES BAY LOW IS PROGGED TO DVLP A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. FOLLOWING SHWR CHCS UNDR THE IMMEDIATE CROSSING OF THE MID LVL TROF AXIS...THE TREND IS OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DESPITE EXTENSIVE STRATOCU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNCE UNDR BLDG HIGH PRES. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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