Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241420 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 920 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered light rain and snow will diminish through the afternoon as low pressure exits toward New England. Mild Wednesday, followed by colder air and snow showers behind a Thursday cold front.
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Upper low pulling away from the Mid-Atlantic this morning with deformation zone precip shrinking as it shifts southeast. Any additional accumulation would be in the ridges, where less than an inch new snow is possible. Mostly cloudy skies will linger through tonight as moisture remains trapped underneath a subsidence inversion. High temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above climatology today, and some 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight with the cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will briefly spell dry weather to begin Wednesday, but another system will bring a return to cooler and wetter conditions through the end of the week. Wednesday afternoon a relatively slow moving low pressure system will approach the western Great Lakes. Deepening of the mid-level low will strengthen the jet oriented parallel to the cold front feeding southern moisture along the boundary. This will fuel light rain showers as the front passes Wednesday night. Models have slowed the eastward advance of this system through the Great Lakes, and thus timing of precipitation onset has been pushed back from previous forecast. Colder air will spill into the area Thursday morning as the upper low passes to our north. With current timing, highs should occur early Thursday and temperatures will fall through the day. Strong west-northwest flow will further bolster cold air advection. A quick transition from rain to snow will likely occur Thursday morning. Conditions will then favor snow showers continuing Thursday night into Friday. By early Friday, expecting at least some snow accumulation in the favorable locations (the Ridges, and north of I- 80), but some light accumulations of an inch or less looks possible areawide. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A broad area of low pressure centered over Eastern Canada will bring periodic snow chances through the weekend. With timing of individual waves difficult to pin down, will keep PoPs in line with SuperBlend numbers. The re-enforcing disturbances will drive temperatures back down to just below seasonal values through Monday. A passing ridge could temporarily quell northwest flow late Monday, but another system looks to arrive from the northwest early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly IFR conditions are expected early afternoon with areas of light rain and snow expected as low pressure slowly exits the E Coast. Some improvement to low MVFR should occur through the afternoon and evening for most ports as ridging begins to build in, though moisture below a temperature inversion should maintain a stratus layer. Further improvement to VFR is expected Wednesday as ridging builds further and winds back to the SW. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected Wed night through Sat with a crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.