Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310107 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 907 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather continues through tonight and into Wednesday. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A cooler pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Some cirrus is beginning to filter into the northern half of the CWA while upstream convection straddles the Indiana/Ohio border. HRRR guidance as well as most synoptic guidance suggest this activity should fall apart very rapidly in the next few hours and cross our area as nothing but debris. Additionally, substantial dry air has become established in the column across our area such that any activity that would even approach our area should result exclusively in virga. Larger scale ascent looks to hold off until Wednesday as dry air will rule the day until deeper moisture and ascent approach with the late afternoon encroachment of a frontal boundary. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main event will be the cold frontal passage late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The best support for lift will lie across the northern counties, closer to the crossing shortwave. Have increased PoPs to likely in this area while keeping lower values to the south. Moisture increases after 18Z, with precipitable water increasing back into the 1.75 to 2.0 inch range. Some model soundings take on a moist adiabatic look late Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Given the relatively low instability, this should keep severe probabilities quite low and in agreement with the SPC Day 2 outlook. However, we cannot rule out some at least briefly heavier rainfall rates, given the high moisture content and sufficient warm cloud depths. Still, flooding does not appear to be a threat at this time. Kept some low PoPs southeast of PIT early on Thursday as the front crosses the ridges. Surface high pressure builds in later Thursday with a trough in the mid levels. This brings in a drier and cooler air mass through Friday, with temperatures below climatology both Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended forecast will be very quiet through the holiday weekend. Ridging is progged across much of the eastern CONUS through Labor Day, with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures expected. Clouds may be on the increase on Tuesday, but precipitation should still remain west of the area. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the bulk of the TAF period. Cloud cover will begin to increase by Wednesday morning, but precipitation chances will be rather slow to spread eastward. Expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon/evening hours with temporary restrictions possible in any stronger thunderstorm. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... After the Wednesday night cold front, VFR conditions will be expected through the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.