Area Forecast Discussion
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382 FXUS61 KPBZ 281859 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 259 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the weekend. High pressure should result in dry weather for Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ridging aloft will be the dominant feature and keep most activity at bay despite the unseasonably warm surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 60s. Have maintained slight chances through early evening with the best chances over the ridges and western zones farther out and west of the ridge axis. Increased moisture in southerly flow along with a crossing shortwave will result in better thunderstorm coverage beginning Sunday afternoon and tapering off overnight after the passage of the trough. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Building surface high pressure should bring mainly dry weather for Memorial Day and Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for dry weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF are coming in better agreement that an upper level trough and associated cold front will approach the region late Thursday into Friday and have bumped up pops slightly. However, the ECMWF is more progressive with pushing precipitation to the east by late Friday, while the GFS and GEFS continue the chance of showers in Saturday. Above normal temperatures mid week will begin to trend toward the seasonal average by the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR is expected at all ports through the 24 hour TAF period. A ridge of high pressure will keep afternoon/evening thunderstorms isolated at best with no mention in TAFs. Winds will be light from the south. With flight restrictions the last two mornings being isolated and short-lived at any terminal, have not included any restrictions in fog around sunrise although MVFR fog will be a possibility at any site. With thunderstorm coverage more scattered Sunday afternoon, have added VCTS to the extended portion of the PIT TAF. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be ahead of a weak front Sunday night into Monday. Another front will approach the region late Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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