Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031943 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 343 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH OVERNIGHT AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AVERAGE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LATEST ANOMALIES SHOW HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH M CLIMATE VALUES OF 30. THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP THE INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED WHICH UNDERCUTS ALL MOS AND BLENDED GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS DIRECT MODEL OUTPUT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CLOSEST ANALOGS...AND ON AVERAGE RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES 15 DEGREES OR SON BELOW NORMAL. WITH A RESPECTABLE COLD POOL ALOFT...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE SCENARIO...EC...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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