Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200203 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 903 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Remaining snow showers will diminish as the night progresses. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected until the approach of another cold front late on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The late eve update included adjustments to hourly trends as snow showers are on the wane for most areas as sfc wind is backing to the west. The embedded shortwave in NW flow aloft will depart late tonight with inversion levels falling and suppressing remaining activity upslope off the Lakes and over the I 80 corridor. Building high pressure will ensure a dry Monday with some moderation in temperature due to insolation and warm advection.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday, with highs getting closer to seasonal norms ahead of an approaching cold front, progged for passage Tuesday night. The models have been hinting to a slightly more amplified shortwave passage, but this would still keep moist of the lift focused over the northern half of the region. Kept PoPs rather consistent for now, with adjustments needed as guidance comes more in line with a solution. Temperatures will cool back down - and run about 10 degrees below average Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad troughing pattern will remain in place through the weekend with fast moving systems progged Friday and Saturday. Similar to Wednesday, most of the lift remains situated north so other than some continued colder than average temperatures, PoPs were kept rather low. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Scattered snow showers will gradually diminish tonight, although MVFR, to low-end VFR stratocu will persist into the predawn of Monday. Improvement is forecast thereafter with building high pressure. .Outlook... Restriction potential returns with a Tue cold front and subsequent upper troughing through mid week.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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