Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301210 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 810 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT ACRS THE AREA THRU THIS MRNG. SOME DCR IN CLDS IS EXPD LTR THIS AFTN AS WK SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. CLDS WL BEGIN TO INCR AGAIN OVRNGT AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO SEASONAL AVGS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A RATHER HISTORICALLY DEEP H500 TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY. 12Z GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. INTERESTINGLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING MUCH OF A SNOW IMPACT FOR THE CWA. H500 UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AT 12Z FRIDAY TO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. CERTAINLY ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL DIP SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND AND SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. STILL FORESEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA CORNER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING TO ALL SNOW AND PERHAPS PICKING UP A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES FROM H925 ON DOWN LOOK TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION. ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES OFFSHORE...FEEDING A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER WELL OFF TO OUR EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WILL TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO COLLAPSE IN FROM THE NORTH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY...BUT BY THEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. POPS DROP OFF TO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE RETURN FOR SUNDAY. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...BLENDING IN THE MOST RECENT MOS GUIDANCE. VALUES WILL RUN SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. CL && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS. A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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RESIDUAL STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST PORTS THIS MRNG WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN AS COLD ADVCTN CEASES AND AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDR A SHRTWV RIDGE. LGT SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THAT SYSTEM UNTIL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/15

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