Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231716
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
116 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. A crossing cold
front will return shower chances to the area tonight, especially
north of Interstate 80, before mainly dry and cool weather
returns for the first half of the week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The stratocu should continue to decrease through the afternoon
under ridging. Warm advection ahead of an approaching
shortwave/cold front should drive temperatures back to near or a
few degrees above seasonal levels.
The cold front is progged for an overnight passage. The best
moisture and upper support is progged north of I 80, where likely
POPs were maintained, with lesser chances south. A crossing low
level jet should also result in some gusty winds overnight
in the ridges. Lows should stay above seasonal levels tonight.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cool northwest flow will re-establish in the wake of the clipper
and associated cold front. Can`t completely rule out lake-enhanced
showers across the north Monday, as the cooler air moves over the
relatively warm Lake Erie waters. Any lingering showers that do
exist Monday afternoon should diminish quickly Monday night as
drier air filters in with the surface high encroaching from the
High pressure at the surface will then keep the forecast area dry
through at least early Wednesday. Persistent northwest flow aloft
will bring 850mb temperatures back below 0C through the short
terms, which will aid in keeping surface temperatures below
average through the middle of the week.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave trough digging into the western Great Lakes will bring
the next organized chance of precipitation back to the area by
late Wednesday. Model guidance fairly consistent with this
feature, so likely PoPs were maintained for Thursday. This late
week system, along with another cold front Saturday will re-
establish deep northwest flow, which will keep temperatures
relegated to near or just below the seasonal averages through the
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Patchy MVFR around KDUJ will depart early afternoon, otherwise
general VFR through late evening. Southwest winds 10 to 15 KT and
gusty this afternoon as pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching cold. A low level jet near 50 Kts will bring a period
of LLWS to most ports before daybreak. With and just behind front
around sunrise MVFR CIGs expected, with brief showers possible at
northern ports. Improvement to VFR by midday Monday.
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next chance for significant restrictions will be with low
pressure approaching Thursday.
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