Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250730 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic shower chance for the first half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Another, albeit deeper shortwave is projected across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Improved lapse rates and falling convective thresholds under cooling mid levels may be sufficient to support some isolated showers, but the probability will be inhibited by limited moisture. A precip mention was thus confined to the I 80 corridor where proximity to the mid level disturbance/cold pool will have greater affect. Cold advection should keep highs 5 to 10 degrees under the averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A series of shortwaves are projected to cross the region during the short term period. Improved dynamics and an improved, but still limited moisture tap support better precip probability for the period. Temperatures under the persistent troughing remain progged about 10 degrees under the averages.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The long term period will feature moderating temperature as flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging out of Western Canada. Humidity and warmth will enhance with the progress of that trough over the Plains/Midwest, and precip chances escalate as the system erodes the Eastern ridge by the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through the period despite a broad upper-level trough. Diurnal cumulus will return again today, along with scattered showers, primarily north of Pittsburgh. Winds will generally remain westerly increasing to near 10kts during the day, with gusts 15-20kts. .OUTLOOK... Chance for restrictions will come with afternoon convection on Monday as an upper trough axis moves through the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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