Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271050 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 650 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ALTHOUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...AN UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SIMILAR TO MID JANUARY VALUES INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH VALUES. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S DURING THE DAY AND DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE SNOW...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES. STILL...AN INCH OF SNOW WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY SATURDAY MORNING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AFTER SUNRISE. EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY...COLD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE TODAYS VALUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS. RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH DAYTIME VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODELS STILL VARYING IN EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE FAST OUTLIER...AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO NAM/SREF TIMING. RAISED POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO ADD LIKELY POPS ANYWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FINALLY BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...MEANING THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN. FLOW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF RESULT IN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL AND SHORTWAVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS CIGS LIFT SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED MIXING...WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU IN COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...BUT NOT PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. VFR THEN EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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