Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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332 FXUS61 KPBZ 221840 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 240 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PASSING SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LINED UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD RAPIDLY END AFTER SUNSET. TAKING A LOOK AT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR FORECAST...IF NOT SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE. EVEN THE HRRR/RAP MODELS...WHICH SHOW MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN OTHER MODELS...DO NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FORECAST. CONSIDERING THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WILL NOT FOLLOW THE MODEL TREND OF RAISING TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL INSTEAD KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST. NATURALLY...THIS ALSO RESULTS IN NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UP A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CALM SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. MODEL TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER IN MOVING THE STORM TO THE EAST. THE DELAYED TIMING SHOULD NOT ONLY KEEP ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD ALSO KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT INCHES EAST ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A LATE WEEK PASSAGE WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT AND SUPPORT VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS BY TUESDAY.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY MAY 23...32 DEGREES IN 1963. ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY MAY 23...32 DEGREES IN 1963. MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY MAY 23...34 DEGREES IN 2006.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ041. PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073>076. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-041. && $$

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