Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230507 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 107 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WITH 1215AM UPDATE...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AS WELL AS PULLING NEARLY ALL CLOUD COVER AS SKIES HAVE QUICKLY CLEARED AFTER SUNSET. PREVIOUS... DRY ADVCTN OFF THE SFC WL CONT FOR A WHILE THOUGH RESULTING IN A DRY HYDROLAPSE ADJACENT TO THE SFC. TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE UPR 30S AS RESIDUAL SFC MSTR DEWS...OR FROSTS OUT. PATCHY FROST MENTION HAS BEEN CONTD FOR THOSE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN AND SRN COUNTIES...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS ANTICIPATED ADJACENT TO THE RIDGES AS ELEVATED VALLEYS MAY SEE MID/ISOLD LOW 30S. THOSE AREAS RMN UNDR A FROST ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRES WL CONT TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PD AS MID/UPR LVL HTS RISE ACRS THE MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO CREEP UP THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT A PROGGED LACK OF FORCING AND OVRALL SBSDNC SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BEING A DECISIVE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN FM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS UPR RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVR THE ERN CONUS. ECMWF CONTS TO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS. PERSISTENCE RMNS THE PRUDENT RESPONSE AND A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN CONTD. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR AREA RIVERS. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ074-076. WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-041. && $$

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