Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290129 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 929 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The late eve update was issued to further adjust PoPs and weather type as widespread rain has diminished with the passing of the supporting shortwave. Precip Probs will remain in the near term forecast though in the form of isolated to scattered convection given abundant moisture, mesoscale boundaries, and weak trailing disturbances in shallow southwest flow aloft. The near term temperature spread will remain restricted with 60 dewpoints spread over the region; hence, no real change was made to the temperature prognosis.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and Saturday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. By Sunday trough is forecast to sharpen enough to push deep moisture east of the ridges by evening, with diminishing shower chances late day. Continued humid with near seasonal daytime temperatures, with lows somewhat above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Appears to be enough low level moisture for low chance pops in the ridges Monday, otherwsie a weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal boundary may get close enough for chance POPs on Thursday. A modified Superblend was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Showers should taper off with exiting shortwave support tonight, though widespread MVFR and eventual IFR fog and stratus is expected with low level moisture in place through early Friday. A return to VFR is expected by Friday afternoon as the fog mixes out and CU develops, but broad upper troughing should maintain shower and thunderstorm chances. Included a VCSH mention in the TAFS for now. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm restriction potential through Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/07

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