Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021616 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1216 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WHILE THE FRONT OVER OUR AREA IS FINALLY GETTING A KICK SOUTHWARD...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AHEAD OF IT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME DIURNAL MIX-OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND A HALT IN THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK. IT IS IN THE AREA WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON. LIKEWISE...AS THE SUN ALLOWS THIS AREA TO WARM UNEVENLY MUCH...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN AS YESTERDAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. ALSO...THERE IS A BIT OF A CAP TO WORK THROUGH TODAY...SO THE CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ARE A BIT LOWER TODAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY POOLS AHEAD OF IT...HI-RES GUIDANCE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BULLISH ON THE IDEA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE 12Z NAM HAS COME IN LARGELY IN LINE WITH THIS IDEA...AND BOTH MODEL SYSTEMS PROJECT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN A RATHER SHORT TIME FRAME WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN THAT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING JUST OVER ONE HALF OF AN INCH...AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING LESS THAN AN INCH AS WELL...A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM WETZEL COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH IN WEST VIRGINIA. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DVLP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE FOR THE UPR OH REGION. WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...TEMPERATURE WAS FORECAST AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SCENARIO OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE TRENCH FILLS...CURRENTLY TIMED FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR PORTS S OF PIT. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021- 509>514. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.