Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221853 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 253 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Quieter weather Wednesday before showers return Thursday. Cooler and less humid are the themes through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Showers and storms producing damaging winds will move through the region this afternoon and early evening. Still expect another line of showers albeit not severe associated with the front. We are monitoring the potential for a high water threat given rainfall amounts have ranged between convective and tropical ZR. In wake of the front there could be fog developed, but with a decent wind flow most of the fog won`t be widespread. It should be confined to the deeper gorges.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Northwest flow aloft allows ripples of energy to round the base of the H5 trough axis positioned over the eastern United States. Plenty of low level moisture in place through Thursday evening to warrant the mention of scattered showers especially for our northern counties closer to Lake Erie. The strongest wave crosses Thursday afternoon, which should bring showers given cooling aloft to the Mason / Dixon line. Future shifts may have to extend the mention of showers to northern West Virginia and western Maryland. Do not expect to see much sunshine Thursday as any heating will fill the sky with a stratocu field. Daytime showers will wane with sunset while anticyclonic vorticity advection. This will start the run of a dry weather the balance of the short term.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Highlights: - Pleasant weather projected - Dry most of the extended - Below normal temps The departing mid level trough and associated low pressure system owes to several nice weather days late this week through the weekend. Surface high pressure builds south from the Great Lakes and with northerly flow on the front end expect below normal temperatures to continue into the middle of next week. Toward the end of the forecast /next tuesday/, moisture from the Gulf resulting from Harvey may provide a canopy of high clouds, but still plenty of time to resolve that over the coming days.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Brief IFR/MVFR weather could impact terminals through 1Z as showers and thunderstorms pass. Once the cold front rolls through this evening VFR weather will return. There is a low probability of fog development during the predawn hours. .Outlook... No widespread IFR weather is forecast.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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