Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291029 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 629 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...SFC FLOW NEVER FULLY CALMED THUS INHIBITING FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS...THE AREA WILL BE STARTING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE LOWS. A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTH REACHING OUR NWRN PERIPHERY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SPARSE AND LAGS BEHIND...BUT ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE AND STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GENERATE DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I80. H85 TEMPS PROGGED BY THE NEAR TERM MODELS TO BE IN THE 5-7C RANGE OR ABOUT 2SD BELOW THE MEAN. THIS UNUSUALLY COLD AIR UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN CHECK DESPITE THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TAX && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MEAN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE H500 AXIS RELOADS TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY. POPS WILL TAKE ON A HIGHLY DIURNAL CHARACTER IN THIS PATTERN. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING...HEIGHTS RISE WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY FRIDAY. DECENT SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED CWA- WIDE. UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE LIKELY POPS MAY BECOME APPROPRIATE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS TUESDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHICH COULD EVEN CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. AFTER WAVE DEPARTS...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE WITH PRECIP NORTH OF I-70 FOR THE MOST PART. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ON FRIDAY...A WAVE TRIES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN RIDE UP THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER SHRA COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ALTHOUGH THE MEAN TROUGH MAINTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...H500 HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RECOVERED TO THE POINT THAT ALLOWS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINT WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE DECENT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF MORE SPARSE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROUGH MAY TRY TO LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS MAY LEAD TO LITTLE OR NO AFTERNOON PRECIP BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED SEASONABLE WARMTH. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS CIGS GENERALLY STAYING 4KFT AND HIGHER. A COUPLE OF THE MORE SHELTERED TERMINALS SUCH AS DUJ AND LBE COULD SEE A DIP IN CIGS AS SHALLOW STRATUS FORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED MID-MORNING ON AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CU. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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