Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231743 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1243 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather can then be expected until the approach of the next front on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Cool and tranquil conditions will continue today and tonight. An upper-level wave swinging through the Great Lakes will lead to an increase in cloud cover this afternoon/evening, but with paltry moisture sampled by this morning`s sounding, no precipitation is expected. Expecting another cold night tonight as clouds dissipate and the boundary layer decouples. Warm air advection begins in earnest Friday morning, which should bring a quick warmup once mixing commences after daybreak. Highs should recover to near normal or even slightly above average readings.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Clouds will increase Friday night ahead of the next cold front. While models have maintained the broader details of the frontal passage, some of the finer details have been modified over the last 24 hours. Higher rain chances along and ahead of the cold front will still be largely confined to the northern 1/3 of the forecast area, but will move in during early morning hours. Current thinking is that southerly flow and increased cloud cover will keep Friday night lows a few degrees warmer than previous forecast. Cold air aloft won`t move in until Saturday afternoon in the wake of the cold front. This should help blossom shower activity in the afternoon/evening, but relatively warm surface temperatures should keep these showers in the liquid form. By the time the column cools enough to support snow, late Saturday evening, mid-level moisture will be non-existent and low-level moisture will be on the decline. Snow showers will certainly be possible north of I-80 and in the Ridges, but the window of solid cold air advection in northwest flow Sunday morning is shorter than previously indicated. Snow showers will be be limited outside of the previously mentioned areas. Still looking for little to no accumulation.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will be the dominant feature Sunday and through the first part of next week...resulting in dry conditions and a warming trend in temperatures. The next system is progged to impact the region in the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR to MVFR stratocu mainly N-E of PIT should continue to erode early this morning overnight under building surface high pressure and backing wind. VFR is expected through the rest of the TAF period, though a crossing upper trough above the surface high should result in an increase in mid and high clouds, before clearing occurs tonight as the trough exits. .Outlook... Restriction potential returns with a Sat cold front, and subsequent cold NW flow and upper troughing through early Sun. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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