Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021755 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FRONT MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. IT WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE EAST BY 00Z. SECONDARY DEWPOINT BOUNDARY BACK NEAR DTW AND FDY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT MORE SUN ACROSS THE SOUTH HAS LED TO BETTER DESTABILIZATION...WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG NOTED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS. STILL DO NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT...BUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PLUS MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED WATER PROBLEMS OVER LOW FFG AREAS AS WELL GIVEN THE RIBBON OF UP TO 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG THE FRONT...PLUS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS. HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT FROM EARLIER BUT HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY VALUES WITH FROPA. KEPT CHANCE POPS BEHIND INITIAL FRONT AS ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY ACCOMPANY THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THINK LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED MORE AS FOG THAN STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH GRADIENT SLACKENING...AND HAVE INSERTED VALLEY FOG CWA-WIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECTING AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHRA POTENTIAL SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK BY CAPPING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS H500 HEIGHTS REMAIN A BIT HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CL
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT QUICKLY EXITS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...NOT QUITE SURE SHOW LONG THE LESS HUMID AIRMASS CAN REMAIN IN PLACE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...SEE WEDNESDAY AS BEING COMFORTABLE...BUT THE HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK IN ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE AREA ACTIVITY FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LATEST MODEL DATA IS SPEEDING UP THE CROSSING OF THE NEXT REAL COLD FRONT. WILL SPEED UP THE ENTRANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION...MEANING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED INTO SATURDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS WILL BE THE BUSIEST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FROPA DURING THAT TIME. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR TEMPO TSRA MENTION. BRIEF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE BUT DID NOT WRITE UP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 22Z-04Z PERIOD...WITH A FAIRLY MINOR WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE WSW. MVFR/IFR FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT GIVEN RAIN...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLACKENING GRADIENT. VFR WILL RETURN WITH SCT CU ONCE FOG LIFTS BY 14Z. CL OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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