Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031018 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 618 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FOCUS TODAY WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS. THE AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THAT CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS WILL BE CRUCIAL...AS THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT SUNSHINE AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH OF MY FORECAST AREA. IT MAY SLOW UP JUST A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF ANY GOOD PUSH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD TODAY...WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT GREAT LAKES MCS. PRECIP SHIELD IS RAPIDLY FADING...BUT A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AT ZZV DURING THE MORNING. COLD FRONT STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTINUING WITH VCTS MENTION AT MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. REMOVED VCTS FROM FKL FOR NOW...THINKING DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMIZED HERE TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER STORMS...AND RESULTANT BRIEF IFR AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...WILL RESIDE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOW-END VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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