Area Forecast Discussion
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334 FXUS61 KPBZ 220815 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 315 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures and patchy light rain will be interrupted by a cold front tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Further adjustment to POPs were needed this morning as a shortwave in southwest flow aloft is supporting showers along a northward surging warm front. Precip. probabilities, albeit for light showers, will shift north of I 80 after daybreak in accordance with warm front positioning.` Today will be a warm day with temperature about 30 degrees above the averages given the Upper Ohio region is firmly within the warm sector of a deepening plains low. Low cloudiness and rain chances should thus be alleviated after passage of the morning disturbance, but shallow mixing should not tap the warmth aloft, so records will not be threatened despite the late January warmth. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TThe Plains low is still projected to dig across the Great Lakes by early Tuesday with Monday night cold frontal passage for the Upper Ohio. Categorical POPs were maintained, but system progression, a lack of instability, and mid level dry slot encroachment should limit rainfall amounts to a half inch or less. Seasonable temperature in the wake of the front is expected to change rain showers to snow on Tuesday with upper support via the crossing mid level trough. Progression and a relatively warm boundary layer should limit accumulation potential before snow shower chances taper off with building high pressure on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Building high pressure in advance of another low emerging over the Plains is likely to dry and warm conditions before rain chances return for next weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR stratus, with IFR north, and areas of fog and light showers will maintain degraded conditions early this morning; however, improvement to VFR is anticipated from the south after daybreak as the warm sector of a Plains low pressure is enhanced with passage of the morning, shower-supporting shortwave. Condition deterioration can again be expected this evening as that lows cold front sweeps over the area. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential will continue until high pressure builds on Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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