Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270110 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 910 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Pre-frontal showers will continue to advance through the region today. There will be an axis of heavier rainfall between Pittsburgh, PA and Zanesville, OH. Scattered shower chances continue into Wednesday as a slow moving cold front crosses after midnight. Dry and seasonable conditions then develop for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Pre-frontal rain showers tapering off; cold front moves through after 2am. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Evening Update: Pre-frontal rain has all but tapered off this evening as a dry slot moves into the region, aside from a few departing light showers over the high terrain. Station obs and reports from across the area show the greatest rainfall occurred generally northwest and west of Pittsburgh, where between 1-1.5 inches fell across portions of eastern Ohio. The rest of the are saw between 0.5-1.0 inches, with the exception being our eastern counties where less than 0.5 inches fell (from generally Clarion and Dubois down through Indiana and Latrobe, and even into Preston and Tucker Counties in WV). Looking upstream, we`re currently tracking a line of showers that has developed along the cold front itself as it advances across western and central Ohio toward the local area. Not much is expected from this line of showers as it should begin dissipating by the time it reaches eastern Ohio, falling apart completely before reaching Pittsburgh or areas east. Thus, most of the area is done with rain for the night, except perhaps a brief shower with little additional QPF (perhaps a few hundredths of an inch). Made adjustments to the PoPs in this evening update to reflect this. The rest of the forecast remains on track, with lows tonight ranging from low/mid 40s over eastern Ohio to upper 40s across western PA and northern WV. 4PM update: A stalled pre-frontal trough has created a localized area of heavier rainfall over the last 6 to 8 hours between Pittsburgh,PA and Zanesville, OH. An additional 0.35 inches to 0.55 inches is expected through late this evening and sharp rises along creeks and streams are likely through early Wednesday. Dry slotting will wrap across the region after dark, cutting off more widespread rain and leaving light, scattered showers after 10pm. Hi-Res model guidance suggest the cold front will enter eastern OH after 2am. A narrow, broken line of showers are expected with the passage of the cold front. A brief period of dry conditions are expected in the wake of the front before isolated light shower activity advances before dawn into eastern OH/western PA and cooler conditions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered light showers will end by Wednesday evening with a building ridge to the west. - High temperatures may trend above or near average for Wednesday if the cold front stalls across western PA. ------------------------------------------------------------------ By 6am Wednesday, the cold front is expected to enter western PA and stall. However, with dry slotting, rain shower activity will be light or absent. Afternoon high temperatures may climb near or above average, especially east of Pittsburgh, PA as a result of weak advancement of the front. Areas along the ridges may range from the mid-50s to upper-50s. Cold air will finally drain into eastern OH just before midnight and overnight temperatures Wednesday into Thursday will range from the upper-30s to near freezing. Probability of freezing or below freezing temperatures is above 70% for counties in eastern Ohio that reside north of I-70 and for counties in PA along I-80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and seasonable weather is expected to end the work week. - A passing shortwave returns rain chances Easter weekend. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Building high pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast Thursday and Friday. Despite cooler and seasonable temperatures on Thursday, renewed warm advection will bump Friday temperatures just above average with plentiful sunshine. Probabilities are high (above 90%) that precipitation returns to the Ohio River Valley over the weekend as a shortwave tracks across the Great Lakes. The 75th to 25th percentile depicts rainfall amounts across region ranging from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. However, there is still remains a lot of uncertainty due to how quickly the shortwave displaces east and the strength of the ridge over the center of the CONUS. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain has become lighter and spottier over the last couple of hours as a dry slot works into the region, and will continue to exit to the east this evening. Ceilings are generally in the MVFR to low VFR range presently with a couple of IFR holdouts in PIT and BVI. Some modest improvement is expected this evening in the dry slot. Wind gust of 15 to 25 knots will also be possible this evening, mainly west of PIT, although these will relax this evening. Low level wind shear remains a concern into the overnight hours with a low level jet overhead. Cold frontal passage after 06Z will be accompanied by a thin line of showers into eastern Ohio, with hi-res models continuing to indicate that these will mostly fade before reaching western PA. However, MVFR ceilings become more likely again towards sunrise (50-80% probability on the NBM) in recovering low-level moisture. LLWS concerns relax by sunrise as the low level jet departs. Dry conditions return for Wednesday but restrictions may linger into late morning with lingering boundary layer moisture. Probabilities for MVFR CIGs hold at 40-70% until around noontime, with improvement to VFR likely thereafter. .Outlook... VFR then returns with high confidence for Thursday and Friday under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions may come Saturday with a passing wave. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Cermak/Hefferan SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...MLB/CL

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