Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301611 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WITH NOON UPDATE...CONTINUED TO UPDATE POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY...BUT HAVE MANAGED TO HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE MID 70S WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...BUT HAVE ALREADY SEEN NEW CASTLE AND NEW PHILADELPHIA DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE CLOUD COVER REMAINS THICK. LIGHTNING COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...BUT HAVE CONTINUED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR ALL LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF SMALL HAIL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA. UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY... PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...HAVE ESSENTIALLY IGNORED MODEL GUIDANCE...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY TOO OPTIMISTIC IN UPSTREAM LOCATIONS. WHILE MODELS INDICATE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH VFR CONDITIONS...LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 3/4 MILE AND 1 1/4 MILE AT ZANESVILLE AND NEW PHILADELPHIA...RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT BAND OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SUCH LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT DUJ/LBE/MGW...BUT AT OTHER LOCATIONS...HAVE PUT IN IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS...AS WELL AS RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN MOST TAFS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH SO FAR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER SPARSE. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH RAINFALL TODAY LIKELY TO ENHANCE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FOR SUNRISE FOG. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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