Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270659 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 259 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Advancing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A shortwave advancing toward the region and a weakening MCS should spread showers and a few thunderstorms across the region tonight. Better thunderstorm chances with the weakening MCS are anticipated for areas south of PIT as per expectations of surface warm front progress and resulting instability profiles, though an isolated tstm mention was included up to I 80 given elevated expectations on the northern flank of the sfc low. Improvement is anticipated Saturday as shortwave ridging ensues in the wake of the night/morning rain. Have thus reduced precip probs more rapidly than previously indicated, though areas S of I 70 could see aftn showers/storms where a stalled sfc boundary is progged. Residual cloud cover should prevent strong temperature recovery despite rising heights on Saturday. Overall, readings a few degrees above the averages can be anticipated for the period. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave crossing the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through Sunday is forecast to increase rain chances again on Sunday with the warm surge on the van of the system. The associated cold front should support further convection into the night, with improvement on Monday as high pressure rapidly slides across the area. Temperatures generally will remain near or just above climatology. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper troughing will develop behind the Sunday cold front, with that pattern lingering through most of next week. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide occasional chances for mainly scattered showers. Temperatures will generally remain near or just below average values. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An area of showers with a few isolated storms will continue to cross the area and be east of DUJ by mid-morning. Thus far downstream locations have remained largely VFR during during showers...and would expect that to continue based on latest forecast soundings. .Outlook... Rain and restriction potential will return with Sunday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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