Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251338 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 838 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will fall through the day as wind increases behind a cold front. Temperatures will be back to near seasonal averages by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cold front has nearly completed it`s passage through the forecast area this morning, nearing Latrobe and DuBois PA. Heavier rain showers just ahead of the front will push east and out of the area by 11am. Winds are increasing behind the front, but the stronger gusts remain over western Ohio at this hour. These are associated with the strongest cold air advection. Expecting wind gusts to increase through the day, especially in the high elevations this evening and overnight. At this point, wind should remain just below Advisory criteria, but this will be monitored through the day. First images of visible satellite confirm the existence of a clear dry slot over central Ohio. While this will fill in some through midday, it should provide a quick shot of clear skies for eastern Ohio zones. Further upstream, a solid patch of clouds and scattered showers can be found over western Ohio and Indiana. These will shift eastward encroaching our western zones this afternoon as the upper-level low approaches. Expecting shower chances to increase this afternoon and evening, as per latest hi-res model guidance. Scattered rain showers will changeover to snow showers as temperatures continue to descend through the day. In general, less than an inch is expected across northern counties and into the mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. Building high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last holdouts. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values and cloud coverage will diminish as high pressure continues to build and lower levels dry out. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Minimal change made in the extended with broad southwesterly flow aloft progged through midweek. A weak disturbance may result in scattered light showers Monday afternoon, but better chances will follow midweek and again on Friday after a brief break with deeper moisture and multiple shortwaves cross the region. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and areas of MVFR conditions are expected this morning as a cold front crosses the area. Wind will veer to the W in the wake of the front this morning. Sfc gusts of 25 to 30kt will again be possible as MVFR stratocu and a few showers linger through the rest of the morning as an upper trough approaches. Enough mixing is expected to raise ceilings to VFR during the afternoon, though a reduction back to MVFR is expected N of I 80 this evening as the upper trough crosses and with WNW flow off the lakes results in scattered snow showers. .OUTLOOK... Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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