Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180512 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1212 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Temperatures will remain well above normal into the weekend, with rain showers from time to time.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Other than adjusted hourly temperatures and dew points, no changes were needed for the overnight. The next shortwave/closed low rushes towards the region overnight with some increase in shower coverage toward daybreak, with increasing moisture and lift. Weak cold advection will continue, but temperatures will remain well above seasonal averages. The mid level low is progged to shift southeast by late Wednesday morning and building high pressure will help diminish showers as the day progresses. Temperatures will have a small rebound from morning readings, as weak cold advection continues.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry weather will then pursue Wednesday night and Thursday before another low pressure system brings precipitation late Thursday night through Friday evening. While precipitation may start as snow from Pittsburgh north, current forecast keeps any accumulation less than an inch. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Saturday and slowly move up the East Coast through the extended forecast period. This system should bring rain to the region by Sunday and keep rain in the forecast through the rest of the forecast. Warm weather will continue, with temperatures between 10-15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MVFR forecast at most ports, but FKL and DUJ look to hang around in the IFR cat. Its very possible, especially around dawn, that ports with MVFR cigs will see a brief period of IFR. Have covered this risk with a tempo group. Forecast soundings are indicating that winds could gust from 15 to 20kts at any time, so have increased winds from previous forecast. .OUTLOOK... Expect general VFR from late Wednesday until the next system moves in on Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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