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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280122 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 922 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain is expected tonight and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather is expected with mid week high pressure before low pressure returns rain to the forecast by late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure is progged to track from the MS/TN Valley to the OH valley by Tuesday morning. Increasing moisture and shortwave support should result in showers overspreading the area tonight through Tuesday morning. Removed the isolated thunder mention as meso analysis and 00Z upper air data show instability fading just to our S-SW. Showers should begin to taper off from W-E by Tuesday afternoon as the low tracks E and the axis of the supporting shortwave trough crosses. Lows are expected to be around 20 deg above average tonight, with highs Tue around 10 deg above seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, cooler and drier air will enter the region. Even this cooler air will still be slightly above normal. The high will be shunted to the east by Thursday afternoon as low pressure approaches from the west. Showers will become a threat by late Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will bring rain into the region Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night before leaving just a slight chance of a shower by Saturday. High pressure settling back in should allow for dry conditions into Sunday. Have stuck close to SuperBlend forecast by Monday with diverging model solutions. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue for the first several hours of the forecast period, but clouds will lower and thicken with time. Approaching low pressure will bring another period of rain overnight and through the morning hours of Tuesday. Expect deterioration through MVFR to a period of IFR for most terminals. Fog/drizzle and low ceilings may linger behind the main rain shield as well. Although visibilities will improve during the afternoon, ceilings will only slowly improve to MVFR levels. Generally light winds are expected throughout. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again by late week as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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