Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240510 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 110 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A stagnant mid-level trough will keep very humid conditions over the region today with a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through early Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... For the overnight period, will need to rely heavily on radar and satellite trends and updated hires guidance. All indication are that rain will diminish in intensity overnight as the shortwave trough spins toward Eastern Pennsylvania. Will keep the highest PoPs overnight ahead of this wave and also continue the mention for heavy rain. Another shortwave trough sweeps through this afternoon which will keep in the risk for showers and storms. Coverage of the activity looks to be limited as the strongest large scale ascent will be well to the north of the region and the atmosphere aloft will be drying quickly. Additionally, the lower levels will not be nearly as unstable as it has been over the weekend. Isolated strong storms could still develop this afternoon as forecast soundings are showing notable speed shear, and if we can get some sun this morning, we should be able to approach convective temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface high will build into the Great Lakes. This will finally bring a stretch of dry weather and sunshine for Tues/Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A deep upper trough and associated surface cold front will settle south from Ontario on Thursday, bringing the threat for showers/storms during the afternoon and evening. Forecast for Friday into the weekend gets a bit muddy. If the aforementioned wave progresses into the Southeast, then the weekend is shaping up to be spectacular with dry conditions and highs around 80. Some model solutions open the upper wave up across the Appalachians keeping the threat for clouds and precipitation (especially over the eastern ridges) into Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Behind the showers/thunderstorms deterioration back to MVFR and possibly IFR is expected. A mix of morning stratus and fog is expected over much of the area, with fog favored in the clearing further west. Improvement to VFR through the morning. The very slow moving boundary will sag south today, re-invigorating showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly south of FKL and DUJ. .OUTLOOK... VFR is expected to prevail toward midweek as high pressure builds in. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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