-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271001
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY
AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN
PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW
MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP
BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT
DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH
QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO
LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER.
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT
KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON
BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF
SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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&&

$$