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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230513 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
113 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid again today, with the risk for showers and
storms continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Only minor changes to the overnight period. PoPs have been
updated in line with the latest satellite and radar trends and
hires model guidance. Refreshed overnight temperatures.

The risk for showers and storms will continue today as a
shortwave trough, diving across the Great lakes, helps to push
a boundary southward. An important factor today will be the
amount of sunshine and the timing of the aforementioned
shortwave. If convection does develop, it appears it would be
later in the day and be enhanced to the south of the lingering
surface boundary. If the track of the wave holds, the focus for
organized and stronger activity would be over the southern half
of the region. Have indicated higher PoPs over this portion of
the forecast area. Still seeing differences in model solutions
due to convective feedback issues and also the placement of the
upper level energy and how that large scale ascent interacts
with the southward moving surface front. Due to these
complications decided not to go any higher than low likely PoPs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Activity wanes tonight with the loss of daytime heating, but
again expect a muggy night with temps well into the 60s and
lower 70s.

Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the
last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs.

Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface
high will build into the Great Lakes. This will keep the area
dry with increased sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridge will shift toward Eastern CONUS on Wednesday, leading to
dry weather and a gradual warming through Thursday. Deepening
upper low over Hudson Bay will swing a boundary over the Great
Lakes, returning chances for showers/storms in northwest flow
to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR or lower cig/vis restrictions will improve by mid-morning.
Scattered showers and storms may provide brief restrictions
during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing
thereafter.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$