Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271001 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 501 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DECREASES CLOUDS TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO CANCEL ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES WITH ONLY AN INCH OR SO HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED REST OF DAY. ALSO ADJUSTED MAX AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS BELOW. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE RIDGES. ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES AND HAVE CANCELLED NORTHERN PART OF ADVISORY. STILL SOME LOWER VSBY IN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN RIDGES AND A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE 20S. FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BREAK OUT STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR LOWS TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH READINGS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CONTINUED COLD BUT DRY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY AND EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG LAKE ERIE AND THIS WILL ENABLE WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF SYSTEM. FOR NOW CONTINUED SNOW MIXING OR CHANGING TO RAIN BASICALLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP BACK IN BEHIND THURSDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW AS IT DIMINISHES. NO GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION FOR SYSTEM AND WITH QUICK MOVEMENT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH TO LOWER 30S FAR NORTH IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION DESPITE SNOW COVER. POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE START OF PRECIP BUT KEPT THINGS SIMPLE FOR NOW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT PULLING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... APPEARS A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST IS IN ORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LARGE STRATOCU DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE REGION ON BACK SIDE OF COASTAL LOW. EASTERN PORTS COULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE...SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL INTERACT WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$

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