Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260517 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 117 AM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Building high pressure will suppress residual showers early this morning and ensure a dry, but warm day. High Temperatures about 7 degrees above the averages are again forecast as last nights crossing shortwave did not appreciably changes the airmass.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The upper ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will continue to funnel warm air across the northern periphery, i.e. the Upper Ohio region. Temperatures about 7 to 10 degrees above the averages may thus be expected into early next week. Surface high pressure will ensure dry weather for most of the weekend, with somewhat lower dewpoints until southerly flow resumes on Sunday. A Great Lakes shortwave traversing the northern flank of the aforementioned upper ridge is forecast to trigger the next rain chance on Sunday with focus via outflow or lake breeze. Confidence in that scenario is minimal at moment, so little change was completed for that portion of the forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Shortwave energy and tropical encroachment on the Southeastern Coast is progged to flatten flow across the northern tier of the CONUS next week. The disturbances in flow would support periodic, and diurnally-enhanced precip chances, but confidence in timing and the magnitude of the pattern change are low, so the forecast was constructed with chance PoPs and an ease away from the warmth by the latter half of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Showers and thunderstorms will be exiting to the east during the first couple of hours of the forecast period. Following the exit, conditions will be VFR, with MVFR/IFR restrictions developing with fog and low clouds through dawn. Restrictions will disappear quickly after sunrise and a return to vfr is expected. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next chance for restrictions should come with the approach of a front Sunday and Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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