


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --137 FXUS61 KPBZ 020456 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Fog is possible early this morning, then mostly dry conditions are expected today outside of a stray shower. Isolated thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon, with dry weather for the Fourth and Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Early morning expected - Mostly dry conditions today --------------------------------------------------------------- Skies have mostly cleared behind the exiting cold front. This clearing, along with light wind and lingering boundary layer moisture, will likely lead to at least patchy dense fog across the area this morning. Fog should dissipate by 8-9am with surface heating. Will continue to monitor the need for a Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory. Mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected after the fog mixes out. Can`t rule out a stray shower or two this afternoon during peak heating, but the region looks to remain capped, and the probability for any development is low. After cooler temperatures Tuesday, area highs will be back in the mid-80s for most.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday - Temperatures a few degrees above average. ---------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures should continue to average a few degrees above seasonable levels through the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry through the first half of the holiday weekend - Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm chances returning Sunday and Monday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Friday and Saturday, a ridge is forecast to shift eastward resulting in dry and warm weather across the Upper Ohio Valley region. The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week, with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances returning. Even as the ridge flattens, 500 mb heights are still expected to be approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. However, the chances of Heat Advisory criteria remains low. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Areas of IFR fog are expected to develop through early morning with clearing skies behind an exiting cold front, and low level moisture in place. LIFR is most likely from DUJ-LBE-AGC-HLG-MGW, where heavier amounts of rain fell on Tuesday, providing greater low level moisture for fog. THe fog should quickly dissipate between 12 and 13Z as mixing begins, and as a ridge of surface high pressure builds in. The CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered diurnal cumulus layer should be in place through the day, dissipating in the evening. High clouds are expected to begin to increase Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Outlook... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with a Thursday cold front. A lack of available moisture with the front will likely be a limiting factor in storm development. VFR is then expected through Sunday as high pressure moves across the region.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley NEAR TERM...Rackley SHORT TERM...WM/Lupo LONG TERM...WM/Lupo AVIATION...WM