Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 040032 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 832 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... MULTI-CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT HAS DOMINATED THE EVENING SO FAR...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING LARGELY ALONG THE APEX OF A BUBBLE OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THAT HAS ADVANCED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF THIS INTERFACE...LITTLE HAS DEVELOPED...THOUGH AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG FARTHER SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO OUR NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERFACE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A DRIER DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS TO TAKE HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET UP TOWARD 80F. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SEVERAL SITES THROUGH EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORM CORES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AS STIFF SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE. && .EQUIPMENT... KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED TRANSMITTER. RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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