Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262158 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 558 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SET TO RIDE NORTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AS IT DOES SO. CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND LARGELY BELOW 1000 J/KG AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES ARE WORKING WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY TO MANIFEST SOME RATHER PERSISENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOME ORGANIZATION OVER OHIO. THIS WILL ALL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND GIVEN SOME AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN AS IT DOES SO...PERIODIC GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT AS THESE CELLS DO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OR TWO OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY PULSE SEVERE...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENCROACHES WILL LIKELY KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS WILL STAY LARGELY WELL INTO THE 60S. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. RIDGING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VARIOUS LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON STUBBORN BOUNDARY LAID ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE CHANCE POPS WERE PRESERVED WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OVER THE OUTCOME OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE...POSITION...AND TIMING. THEREFORE PERSISTENCE WAS HEAVILY USED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AND LOW CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL...MAINLY MVFR...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WESTERN PORTS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE THE DEGRADATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS INDICATED AS PRECIP CHANCES DECLINE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP...AND RESTRICTION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE WITH AN ENCROACING FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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