Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190202 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 902 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow are expected late Thursday night into Friday. Above normal temperatures are forecast for the entire seven day period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clouds and spotty drizzle continue this evening. Obs are not reporting it, but we are getting very light drizzle from time to time here at the office. Have extended drizzle through 06Z in the grids. Thereafter, slow warm advection should end the drizzle and begin to thin the clouds a bit. Temperatures in good shape and only made minimal tweaks. Previous discussion... As winds back to the south on Thursday, some dry advection should allow for clouds to eventually scatter out. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s, which is pretty close to normal daytime highs, and it should be the coldest night out of the next seven. Thursday highs should range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper low over the central Plains will open into a trough as it moves across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. At the surface, this should bring a band of precipitation during that same time period. Have bumped up pops to categorical in all locations, and the timing should allow for some minimal snow accumulation of up to an inch for locations north of Pittsburgh. Although a lingering rain shower could persist Friday evening, overnight Friday and Saturday should be dry. Saturday will have the warmest temperatures of the seven days, with many locations reaching the 60 degree mark. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong upper low will develop across the Southern Plains and track to the northeast through the beginning of next week. Although the ECMWF and GFS still show some timing differences, this will bring occasional rain Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR to IFR cigs will persist overnight as low pressure shifts east of the region. Improvements can be expected Thursday as building high pressure supports general VFR. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely again as low pressure develops toward the Great Lakes by Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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