-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140111
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
911 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATE EVE UPDATE FOR THE NR TERM PD FEATURED ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
BASED ON OBS AND INCOMING LAMP GUIDANCE. ALTERATIONS WERE ALSO
COMPLETED TO FRIDAY WIND AND GUSTS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVN OF
ONCOMING TROUGH...FRONT.

OTHERWISE...MID LVL CLDS WL STREAM OVR THE AREA TNGT AS JET STREAK
SURGES ALNG THE EWD DRIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WARM ADVCTN
REGIME WL SPPRT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS TNGT...AND THE UPWARD
SURGE FOR THE FRIDAY HIGHS...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED LAMP GUIDANCE TREND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THAT COULD END AS SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BACK NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

COLD ADVECTION WITH STRENGTHENING GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GFS AND ECMWF PROJECT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
PRES APPROACH TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THAT LOW MAY SPREAD
A SNOW...OR A RAIN...SNOW MIX ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. FOR
NOW...CHC POPS WERE COLLABORATIVELY ENTERED FOR THIS SCENARIO...WITH
A WARMING BNDRY LYR TO PRECLUDE SERIOUS ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...APPEARS ENOUGH COLD AIR WL BE FUNNELED SOUTHWARD
TO CHANGE PCPN TO ALL SNOW AS THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS EWD.
ANOTHER UPR TROUGH IS PROJECTED OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE APPRCH AND PASSAGE OF A CDFNT ON
FRIDAY NGT.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NXT CHC OF GENL RESRICTIONS WL COME WITH NRN FLANK PCPN OF LOW
PRES CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$