Area Forecast Discussion
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805 FXUS61 KPBZ 180926 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 526 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chance will continue through much of the day. The risk will return again Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Main trough axis will slowly drift eastward this morning as a surface cold front moves across Lake Erie. With this area of large scale ascension still looming and with low level moisture continuing to feed into it, will need to keep PoPs in the vicinity of the upper level wave, mainly over the southeastern quadrant of the forecast area. Surface boundary looks to catch up to the exiting trough this afternoon, which will provide an additional eastward push of the moisture. To the west of the axis, a decrease in cloud cover is expected, as drier and cooler air drives to the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry and cooler tonight. The next shortwave trough arrives Saturday afternoon. It appears another surface boundary will cross the area just ahead of the upper level energy, so would expect showers and storms to redevelop as the system passes through. Surface high builds in on Sunday as the flow aloft becomes zonal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Series of shortwaves will maintain shower chances and restrictions through this morning. IFR ceilings should gradually improve, with some improvement already indicated at ZZV and KFKL, as better mixing takes place with the approach and passage of the cold front. Most of the model guidance generates a line of showers and storms around midday, with the actual frontal boundary itself, with clearing skies anticipated behind. Will make a VCTS mention to cover this at the easternmost ports. Expect a SW to W wind shift with the frontal passage with wind gusts near 20kts. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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