-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
904
FXUS61 KPBZ 270136
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
936 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass east of the area this evening with drier
weather returning in its wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers along the front have really waned drastically since the
last update as diurnal instability and prefrontal showers have
managed to sap all the available instability. PoPs were thus
lowered or removed virtually across the entire CWA save for Tucker
County with this update.

Post-frontal dry advection is in full force across Ohio already,
and overnight mixing profiles suggest that wind gusts should bring
dry air into the rest of the CWA fairly efficiently. This should
preclude much fog development and result in clear skies through
the day on Tuesday across the entire area. While colder air will
be moving in, a deep mixing profile and abundant sunshine will
keep afternoon highs at rather seasonable levels. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperature advection will be quickly neutralized on Tuesday, with
warm advection resuming on the southeastern flank of Great Lakes
low pressure. As such, temperatures were forecast near the seasonal
averages.

The Great Lakes upper low is forecast to dig southward across the
Upper Ohio during the mid week period. As models are coming into
more consistent depictions, confidence in the forecast of
chance/scattered shower weather with sub-average temperature is
improving. Few changes were made to the prognosis for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned upper low is projected to fill/lift
northeastward by next weekend with zonal flow resuming over the
Upper Ohio Region. Predominately dry weather is thus forecast with
seasonal temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Any MVFR restrictions in stratus this evening should be short-
lived as a cold front completes its passage across most of the
region and brings in much drier air. Mid/high level clouds will
then continue for a few hours before skies clear. The one location
that is expected to have restrictions after midnight is MGW, where
the cold front may linger through the overnight hours. Although
stratus will lift, fog is expected to develop at MGW with
relatively light winds. By early afternoon on Tuesday, wind gusts
up to 20 kts are expected at all terminals, with clear skies
continuing through the day.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper-level low pressure will settle into the Great Lakes region
through the week. Flight restrictions will be increasingly likely
beginning Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$