Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221428 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1028 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and storms are forecast this afternoon. The remnants of Cindy make their way into our region tonight into Saturday. Heavy rain is possible Friday. Dry weather makes a return late Saturday with cooler weather Sunday.
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Showers and storms tracking along the Lake Erie shoreline will continue to be the primary impact today. Latest high resolution guidance tracks this area across northern sections this afternoon /during peak heating/. Dry mid levels make damaging winds the primary hazard. Delta theta-e values around -25 are below the freezing level so its going to take an icy core to get well above the 13KFT in order to attain severe levels. Rich low level moisture will yield downpours with any storm. The cluster of showers and storms this morning over southwestern PA produced nearly an inch of rain, illustrating how efficient the atmosphere is. Temperatures are on track with minimal changes.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... More substantial upper level energy will stream northward from the lower Ohio Valley tonight. These waves will follow the intensifying southwest flow aloft, as the remnants of TS Cindy move over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Deep moisture, tropical in nature, will also stream northward which will bring widespread rain and storms to the area late tonight through Friday night. Warm rain process will develop on Friday, creating a scenario for very efficient rainfall. As the rain overspreads the region, a surface cold front will move across the Upper Midwest, reaching Western Ohio by late in the afternoon. It is a good bet that rainfall will intensify late tonight and then ahead of the boundary Friday afternoon, so the eastward progression of the front will need to be monitored closely in future model runs. In addition to closely watching the progression of the front, where the remnants of TS Cindy go, once it phases in with the upper level flow, will also be critical. It will take all of Friday night for the front to exit to the east, meaning the risk for heavy rain will continue into early Saturday. Drier air sags through the area on Saturday behind the exiting front. This will allow for the area to finally start to dry out and cool down. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A stark shift in the upper level pattern looks to occur by early next week. Model and ensemble projections all favor deep troughing settling over the region by that juncture. With this, much colder air aloft combined with northwesterly surface flow will mean temperatures well below normal with chances of showers as cold air aloft migrates through the region. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR is expected through the period outside of possible scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly north of KPIT as a stalled frontal boundary lifts back to the north. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely Friday and Friday night with the encroachment of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.