Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251118 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS... SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY. FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY... EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE DETAILS. MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH. SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.