-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 251118
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE POST DAWN UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND COMFORTABLE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND THE MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF A
COMPLEX SURFACE BOUNDARY.

FLOW ALOFT EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL SATURDAY. THE FIRST UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS BEGIN SATURDAY AND CARRY THROUGH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...CLARIFYING THE DETAILS IS
AN ARDUOUS TASK. FOR CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD SUNDAY AS
BEING THE BEST TIME TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...
EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE MCS DEVELOPMENT WHICH EVENTUALLY COULD PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN...STILL NEED TO WORK OUT MANY OF THE
DETAILS.

MAY ALSO SEE STORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL DATA
IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 6KM SHEAR IS ABOVE 40KTS...BUT
WITH THE ABSENCE OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NOT
POSITIVE CONVECTION CAN GET STARTED. WOULD LEAN TOWARD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT EVEN MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE CONTINUED
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH
PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SWINGS THROUGH.

SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MONDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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DRY SFC HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR FOR THE TAF PD AFTR LCL AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG MIX OUT THIS MRNG.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES SPREADS SHWRS AND
TSTMS OVR THE UPR OH REGION. THE POTENTIAL WL CONT INTO MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS CDFNT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

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