Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230155 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 955 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will end showers this evening, followed by dry and seasonably cool conditions through Sunday. Quick-moving low pressure will provide increasing chances for rain showers Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Aside from nominal adjustments to reflect current observations, forecast appears to be in good shape. No significant changes needed with this update. Previous discussion follows... Remaining lake-enhanced streamers will diminish during the next few hours as flow backs to wly amid building high pressure. This high pressure will be fleeting as a clipper system moves sewd toward the Great Lakes region. Warm advection in advance of this system will support only modest decreases in temperature overnight, thus suppressing concern for frost outside of the highest ridges, where the growing season already ended earlier this month. Overnight minima thus can be expected in the upper 30s in the northern zones and lower 40s elsewhere. Lower 30s will be common in the ridges, where cold air has lingered all day. Amid increasing warm air advection and decent insolation, temps on Sunday should reach low 60s by afternoon. Cloud cover will begin to thicken late in the day as the clipper system approaches, but precipitation is not likely to encroach on the forecast area until Sun evening, when somewhat-deeper moisture begins to advect into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... While quality moisture will be shallow Sunday afternoon, moisture advection and modest isentropic upglide should yield sufficiently- deep moisture to produce light precipitation in at least nrn sections of the forecast area and the ridges. MOS guidance and deterministic models suggest the likelihood of light but measurable precipitation in these areas, so a broader range in PoP was included for the Sun night timeframe. Previous discussion follows... A weak shortwave and a fast moving cold front will cross the region later Sunday night into early Monday, followed by dry high pressure for Tuesday. Chance POPs with frontal passage as moisture will be limited. Temperatures behind the front will be around 5 degrees below the seasonal average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next significant weather will be with a fairly-strong shortwave and surface low pressure moving across the Great Lakes later Wednesday night into Thursday. Likely POPs were included for this system until it shifts east to New England later Thursday night. Another cold front will approach by Saturday, bringing shower chances back to the forecast. Temperatures will be near or just below the seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Improvement to VFR is expected at most of the terminals overnight, though stratocu may linger in the northern and eastern ports through early morning or until we lose the moisture fetch from lake Erie. What lingering showers that remain will also diminish, with only VCSH maintained at DUJ for a couple of hours. Brief ridge of high pressure should maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period but clouds will be increasing in advance of the next fast-moving low pressure system, expected to bring rain to portions of the region Sunday night. W-NW wind will back to the W-SW through the period, with gusts expected again in the afternoon with anticipated surface heating. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night cold front, and with subsequent upper troughing and northwest flow through Tuesday. Restrictions are possible again with the approach of Low Pressure on Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ UPDATE...Kramar is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.