Area Forecast Discussion
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829 FXUS61 KPBZ 211236 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 736 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring the next chance for precipitation tonight. Dry weather and below average temperature are expected for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Little to talk about this morning under mostly clear skies. Surface winds will increase through the day with occasional strong gusts nearing 30mph as the low-level jet just above the inversion begins to mix down. Otherwise, warm advection, on southerly flow and sunshine is expected to push high temperatures a few degrees above the seasonal averages today. Clouds will then begin to increase this evening, ahead of the cold front slated to arrive tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front will quickly swing through the area this evening and into the overnight hours. Model are showing sufficient upper level support and low-level forcing to continue with likely POPs, mainly over the northern half of the region. The cold airmass behind the front does not look deep enough to sustain a very long period of post frontal snow showers. Forecast soundings are showing saturation levels dropping quickly, well below the dendritic snow growth layer. Minor snow accumulations are possible, but should be limited mainly to the I 80 corridor and ridges. Less than an inch is anticipated in those areas. High pressure will then ensure a dry midweek and Thanksgiving holiday, with sub average temperatures. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ensemble forecasts are showing the next cold front dropping through the area on Saturday, followed by the next trough setting up over the Eastern CONUS, which will hold into the beginning of next week. Cold surface high is expected to build back in late Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through much of the day with restrictions at FKL and DUJ late tonight as a front quickly crosses. Winds will increase ahead of the front as the pressure gradient increases with wind gusts around 20 kts. .Outlook... Subsequent cold advection is expected to maintain MVFR cigs into Wednesday, but improvement can be expected as the day progresses. The next chance for restrictions is forecast with an early Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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