Area Forecast Discussion
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747 FXUS61 KPBZ 271616 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1216 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of crossing low pressure will result in periodic shower chances through early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Made updates based on radar and hi-res model trends. Any convective development this afternoon will be mainly confined to areas south of the Mason-Dixon line, with warm air aloft capping off activity to the north. This will keep any threat of strong to borderline severe storms south of the WV/PA border as well. Expecting mainly dry weather elsewhere as mid-level ridging develops aloft. Lingering cloud cover south of I-80 has limited the temperature rise this morning, and so have shaved a couple degrees off of afternoon highs for much of the CWA, with values between 70 and 75 for most areas outside the ridges.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave crossing the upper Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of an approaching surface low is forecast to increase shower/thunderstorm chances again on Sunday. The low`s associated cold front should support further showers/storms into the night, with improvement on Monday as high pressure ridging rapidly slides across the area. Temperatures generally will remain just above the seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper troughing is progged across the NE CONUS and Great Lakes region through the period. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide occasional shower chances through mid week until surface high pressure builds under the trough by late week. Temperatures should average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An area of showers with a few isolated storms will continue to cross the area and be east of the area by noon. Behind the rain, upstream observations show MVFR/VFR ceilings, and have put in a period of MVFR for most sites through the morning. This afternoon there is a slight chance of shower/storm development at MGW but farther north conditions will be too stable with the ridge axis over the forecast area. .Outlook... Rain and restriction potential will return with Sunday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.