Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262058 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 458 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Advancing low pressure will return rain to the region tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Shortwave ridging in advance of a midwestern shortwave will suppress rain over the Upper Ohio Region early this evening. The reprieve looks to be brief though as the midwest disturbance is going to dig rapidly eastward and begin to spread showers and thunderstorms over the immediate area as the night deepens. All guidance is indicating rain as far north of the I 80 corridor with the mid level trough axis, although the sfc low track-prog is along or just south of the I 70 corridor. The late aftn update thus features adjusted precip probs for that evenuality. Better thunderstorm chances with a weakening MCS are anticipated for areas south of Pittsburgh as per expectations of surface warm front progress on the warm surge and resulting instability profiles; nevertheless, a scattered mention was included up to I 80 given elevated expectations on the northern flank of the sfc low. Progression and fading instability should keep this passing system from being problematic in terms of severe storms and flooding. Improvement is anticipated Saturday as shortwave ridging ensues in the wake of the night/morning rain. Have thus reduced precip probs more rapidly than previously indicated. Residual cloud cover should prevent strong temperature recovery despite rising heights on Saturday. Overall, readings a few degrees above the averages can be anticipated for the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A shortwave crossing the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through Sunday is forecast to increase rain chances again on Sunday with the warm surge on the van of the system. The associated cold front should support further convection into the night, with improvement on Monday as high pressure rapidly slides across the area. Temperatures generally will remain near or just above climatology. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad upper troughing will develop behind the Sunday cold front, with that pattern lingering through most of next week. Shortwaves rotating through the trough will provide occasional chances for mainly scattered showers. Temperatures will generally remain near or just below average values. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Condition deterioration is expected tonight as crossing low pressure spreads showers and thunderstorms across Upper Ohio Valley terminals. Expect a condition downgrade to eventual IFR, ceilings of which are likely to linger through much of Saturday morning before shortwave ridging returns VFR to area ports. .Outlook... Rain and restriction potential will return with Sunday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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