Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200130 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 930 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will continue into the weekend. Thunderstorm chances will escalate on Thursday and continue periodically as a series of disturbances crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convective activity is rapidly fading as of 9 PM across the Morgantown area primarily. With the loss of daytime heating and unfavorable trends, the remnant convection should be gone shortly. Clear skies will prevail in its wake throughout the region with lean RH profiles above the boundary layer. With elevated surface dewpoints across the board and little incoming cloud cover, localized fog will again be possible tonight. This may well be the last night before the quiescent period of the forecast ends. Fries A shortwave tomorrow will bring greater coverage of precipitation than has occurred over the last few days. Have slowed down precipitation by a few hours with the shortwave delayed in its arrival. This should keep the bulk of showers and storms to the northwest of the region during the daytime hours. High temperatures will likely creep a degree or two higher from today`s values. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Thursday evening should be the primary time period for any potential severe weather, and the majority of the forecast area remains in a slight risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The delayed arrival time may diminish the local chances for severe weather with less instability present. Next shortwave passing through should favor southern counties, and have maintained chance pops everywhere Friday and Friday night. Deterministic and ensemble models have come into better agreement for timing/placement of showers/storms with a shortwave Saturday and Saturday night, and have continued likely pops through the time period. Temperatures will remain above normal, but begin to drop slightly. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Likely pops should linger into Sunday, but overall coverage of precipitation should begin to decrease as additional shortwaves cross the region while the upper level pattern shifts over the eastern United States from a ridge to a trough. As the trough shifts east by Tuesday, conditions should begin to dry out from the unsettled pattern. There is high confidence that next Wednesday will be dry across the entire forecast area, something that has not occurred in several days. High temperatures will also drop below normal by the start of the next work week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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General VFR expected the majority of the night with patchy MVFR fog development at most terminals by early morning. VFR after 13Z as fog lifts, with any organized convection likely holding off until late afternoon/ evening. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions possible Thursday evening associated with a line of convection. Additional rounds of storms are expected through the weekend, and morning fog is possible as well.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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