Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250320 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1020 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUES AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A CLEARLY DEFINED BACK EDGE IS EVIDENT ON THE LOWEST SCANS OF TPIT AND KPIT RADARS. UPSTREAM...OVER THE MOSTLY FROZEN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...RADAR ECHOES SAMPLED A LITTLE FURTHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SFC TROF THAT RUNS W TO E OVER LAKE HURON. WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT SNOW STREAM INTO THE NW ZONES BY 06Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE SPATIALLY AND IN INTENSITY AS THE MORE POTENT LOW APPROACHES BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER PROGGED TO BE OVER KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THEN UP THE COAST AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE CURRENT TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT AND BASED ON THE LATEST MEAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION PROGS HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.,,,WHERE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKELY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AFTER THE CLIPPER HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH...THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE COULD STILL END UP DRIVING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ONLY MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE. ONLY OTHER SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPED UP A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM BASED ON 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. OTHERWISE WPC GRIDS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR/LOW MVFR TO START THE PERIOD...BECOMING IFR AREAWIDE WITH TIME AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SHSN. IFR CIGS REMAIN AS SHSN SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN NEXT...MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADIER SNOW AND IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. FKL/DUJ MAY ESCAPE THE WORST OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IFR. .OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CROSSING LOW PRES WILL ALLOW IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004- 012-021>023-041. && $$

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