Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200738 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 338 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WARM ADVCTN AND THICKENING CLD COVER WL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE OF A TEMP DROP THIS MRNG...WITH MANY READINGS FM ALNG AND N OF I 70 RISING. THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CNTIES SURROUNDING MORGANTOWN WAS THUS DROPPED EARLY AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH EXTENSIVE CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD/ENCROACHING ALTOSTRATUS AND GENL TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S IN THE ADVISORY AREA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...THE APCHG SHRTWV THAT IS SPEWING UPR AND MID LVL CLDINESS OVR THE REGION...IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHWRS OVR BY EVE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR LGT PCPN HAVE BEEN CONTINUED...BUT OVRALL NMBRS WERE TEMPERED AND TIMING FURTHER ADJUSTED FOR A LATER START GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DRY LYR ON THE EVE SNDING AS WELL AS THE LATEST MDL TRENDS. MRNG TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING HRLY LAMP GUIDANCE AND RAP NMBRS...WHILE COOL DAYTIME HIGHS WERE TWEAKED USING GFS MOSGUIDE TRENDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH. BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC/CS THRU TDA AHD OF AN APCHG SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. .AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE RGN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& 15/07 $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.