Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281513 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1013 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE END THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER FEATURES MOVES TO OUR EAST. A WARMUP IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS ORIGINATE FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND 50S SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR THIS EVENT AS WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST SHUTTING OFF ACTIVITY FROM LAKE ERIE. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN MD AND NRN WV DUE TO WINDS STAYING NORTHWEST...BUT ANY DAYTIME ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN TWO INCHES. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND CARRIED THEM LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SE OF PIT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST. INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE WILL MELT SNOW AND ALLOW ROAD CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. TEMPERATURES WERE POPULATED USING THE GRIDDED LAMP GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING. TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY ENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EVERYWHERE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. NW WIND WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ023-041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...98 NEAR TERM...98 AVIATION...34

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