Area Forecast Discussion
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993 FXUS61 KPBZ 240231 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 931 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow is expected overnight with significant accumulations limited to higher elevations. Relatively mild temperatures will continue until a cold front crosses Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... No updates needed at this time outside of minor adjustments to hourly temperatures. Previous discussion follows.. Strong dynamic cooling has increased the changeover from rain to snow as we head into early evening, however, snow intensity is expected to lessen over the next few hours as the best dynamics and deeper lift exits the forecast area and low pressure continues to shift to the northeast. Any significant accumulating snow will be limited to higher elevations. A fair amount of rain has fallen today with observed amounts ranging from 0.75 to 1.25 inches across southwestern PA. With an additional half inch possible...opted to issue a flood advisory until shortly after midnight. Outside of precipitation type minimal change was made this evening to the inherited forecast in the near-term. With regards to general 1-2 inches for the Laurel Ridges, and 2-4 inches in the highest elevations of nrn WV and Garrett, MD is expected Temperatures will remain steady overnight. Late tonight as the coastal low heads offshore of New Jersey, precip will diminish with light accumulations expected. Not much in the way of cold air behind departing low, with Tuesday max temps near 10 degrees above the seasonal average. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Relatively mild into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front for Wednesday night into Thursday. Above average temperatures will continue into Wednesday night, before colder temperatures work across the region Thursday. Mainly chance POPs for rain showers Wednesday into Wednesday night, mixing with and changing to snow showers Thursday, as temperatures fall toward the seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Several hard to time impulses passing through the mean northwest flow will result in periodic snow chances, with possible accumulation for the weekend with colder flow over the lakes. Temperatures will average near 5 degrees below the seasonal norm. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR conditions should slowly deteriorate to IFR in rain through the afternoon as low pressure tracks across N Carolina. A strong pressure gradient on the N side of the low will also result in gusty E winds through the afternoon before diminishing this evening. Winds should gradually back to the NW tonight through Tuesday. The precip could mix with and change to snow this afternoon/evening especially for elevated ports and areas N of PIT. The low should exit the E coast Tuesday with precip ending, though MVFR ceilings are expected to persist with low level moisture in place. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected late Wed through Sat with a crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.