Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272220 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 620 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE TWEAKS TO HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE AND SKY. PREVIOUS... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TOO STABLE TO GENERATE EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK THURSDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...AND A STRONG WARMING SHOULD OCCUR UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THE STRONG WARMING ALONG THE SOUTH WILL FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEPT HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUNDER PROSPECTS LOOK MEAGER WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND INSUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES. RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH EITHER WITH PWATS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. COVERAGE OF SHRA DECREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS RISE. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. THE GFS IS STILL SLOWER BUT SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FURTHER INCREASE BY FUTURE SHIFTS. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP VALUES A BIT COOLER...TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN THURSDAY...WITH RECOVERY ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME SUN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BIT MORE CERTAIN OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT NOW...AS GFS IS COMING AROUND TO THE WETTER IDEA OF THE ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. HAVE LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN H500 TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S...AND TUESDAY APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PAYS A BRIEF VISIT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA. RELIED A BIT MORE HEAVILY ON SUPERBLEND SUGGESTIONS WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK MORE OR LESS SEASONABLY REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEANED ON SUPERBLEND HERE AS WELL. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR CIGS S OF PIT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS THIS EVE WITH MIXING AND BRIEFLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR...LATE TONIGHT AND THU AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE OH VLY RGN RESULTING IN RAIN. A FEW TSTMS PSBL MAINLY S OF PIT THU THOUGH INSTABILITY/TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...PRECLUDING A TAF MENTION. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE AREAS CROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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