Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310541 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 141 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather continues today. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. A cooler pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Only minor changes to the overnight forecast. Current satellite and radar trends, as well as latest guidance, continue to point to a dry night, with an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires guidance. Larger scale ascent will hold off until this afternoon, as a deepening shortwave trough crosses the area. Deeper moisture will quickly increase with the upper level wave, providing the risk for showers and storms. The activity will be timed along the surface boundary which will enter Northwest Pennsylvania early this afternoon and reach PIT as evening approaches. PoPs have been timed and increased in accordance with the movement of the front. Atmospheric instability will be available for the front to tap into, but cloud cover will be a limiting factor on thunderstorm development. At this time, the main threat appears to be heavy downpours, as PWAT values remain quite high. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PoPs will decrease from north to south tonight, as what is left of the surface boundary, moves into Northern West Virginia this evening. A post frontal trough could spark a few showers tonight, so held on to PoPs just a bit longer then previous forecast. Surface high pressure builds in Thursday, as an upper level trough sets up over the Upper Ohio Valley. The flow aloft will usher in a drier and cooler air mass, which will remain in place through Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended forecast will be very quiet through the holiday weekend. Ridging is progged across much of the eastern CONUS through Labor Day, with dry weather and gradually warming temperatures. Clouds may be on the increase on Tuesday, but precipitation should still remain west of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through much of Wednesday. A cold front will move across the region late morning into the evening, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Issue will be where more widespread shower can develop for restrictions. Used a broad brush with vfr showers from north to south through the day, with VCTS for a time. Better timing on more precise restrictions may be possible for terminals for the afternoon. Winds will be west under 10 KTs until turning north under 10 KTs behind front in the afternoon. Cold advection will bring some MVFR stratus Wednesday night well behind the front. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions under high pressure through the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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