Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271436 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 936 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WE CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEN A RETURN TO NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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930AM UPDATE...MODIFIED THE SKY COVER TO REFELCT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SWING THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFF THE EAST COAST. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO WAA...SHOVING WHAT`S LEFT OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE SPEED OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY. WILL LEAN TOWARD A BIT SLOWER OF A SOLUTION...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY FORECAST TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... TIMING AND LOCATION OF FRONT AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE DECREASES SUNDAY ON LOCATION OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AND HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARMER AIR MASS...MEANING MOSTLY SHOWERS. BUT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD... MODELS ARE HINTING THAT SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO REACT TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...SO ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT IT DOES MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SHOVE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY`S FRONT WILL HAVE STALLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A LARGE PORTION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY. THE WRENCH IN THE FORECAST WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A JET STREAK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTH INCREASING THE LIFT AND MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES...MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BECOME CRUCIAL. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS HERE AND LEAVE IN CHC/SCHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY BE DRY WITH A DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CROSSING SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SUFFICIENT RELATIVE MSTR TO SPAWN SOME STRATOCU EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW END VFR...MVFR CIGS FORECAST WL THUS BE RETAINED FOR SVRL HRS WITH DOMINANT VFR QUICKLY RTNG BY LATE MRNG. CONDITION DETERIORATION TO GENL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AFTR DARK AS CDFNT DRAWS NR THE REGION. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH...AND IN THE WAKE OF A CDFNT PASSAGE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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