Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271450 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1050 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND SKY ELEMENTS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... THE PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW...OVER THE QUEBEC PROVINCE...IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR PROVINCES TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSINGS THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND SUSTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO RISE ON FRIDAY AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING HIGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENSION TO SPARK SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST LATE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR...TO LOW END VFR STATOCU CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER A SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR AS CLOUD BASES RISE TRHROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPRESS CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT...HENCE PREDAWN FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/24

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