Area Forecast Discussion
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395 FXUS61 KPBZ 301224 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 824 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm this afternoon with isolated showers possible along the ridges and north of I-80. A cold front will bring widespread precipitation on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 500mb ridge will be well entrenched across the area and warm air will stream rapidly northward. Would expect sunshine to make a return this afternoon and temperatures to really jump in the broad warm sector. Models still holding on to some cloud cover across the far north and east, as the flow at the surface in these locales never loses its easterly component until late in the day. With the rise in temperatures, would also expect to see a bump in humidity levels. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the ridges and far north with differential heating. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions will remain warm and dry overnight and clouds will begin to fill back in toward Monday morning as atmospheric moisture increases ahead of the next front. Still seeing some timing difference in model solutions with the onset of showers on Monday. Will lean more toward a slower solution since the path of the upper level low is more toward the north on Monday and the trough axis will really not show much of an easterly swing until Monday afternoon. This will likely slow down the eastward progression of the surface front. However, once the large upper level system, which by Monday afternoon will be over the Western Great Lakes, becomes negatively tilted, the surface front will pick up forward speed and rush through Monday afternoon. Showers and storms will develop along the front as it moves eastward, with some enhancement in the strength of the precipitation late day Monday, as an area of strong low-level moisture convergence develops. This would likely be at a time when the front has reached the eastern half of the area. Front will clear the area Monday evening, with boundary associated showers/storms ending as well. Strong cold air advection will dive in behind the exiting system, bringing more clouds and the risk for additional showers. The cold air won`t be around for long on Tuesday, as winds swing around to the southwest during the morning and warm air advection will begin in ernest. The push of warmer air will also disperse the cloud cover, allowing for plenty of sunshine by the afternoon. Temperatures Tuesday will be near or slightly below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A southern stream trough will begin to spread moistures north toward the region by later Wednesday, with shower chances into the weekend as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the seasonal average through late week. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Except for fog at ZZV/HLG/MGW dissipating shortly after sunrise, VFR cumulus are basically all that will be expected for most of today with clearing skies overnight, other than the possibility of some stratus reforming around KDUJ. Gusty southerly winds to 20 kt could potentially bring some crosswind issues at sites this afternoon. A cold front on Monday will likely bring restrictions in showers/thunderstorms to all terminals, but with the 12Z TAF issuance, PIT was the only site included due to the 30 hour length. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible again with Thursday low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.