Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 270823
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
423 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Low pressure will bring rain to the region today. Dry and cool
weather returns Friday. Warmer but unsettled weather is
anticipated for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface cold front will slowly move through the area today.
Showers will proceed the front and eventually usher in much
colder air. Expect a period of rain during the early morning hours
then another round just ahead of the aforementioned front. Will
continue with idea of keeping highest probabilities over the north
as these locations will be closer to the main surface low. Front
should reach PIT early this afternoon and then drift east of the
region by early evening.
Ahead of the surface boundary, temperatures will be near normal,
but slowly falling temperatures are expected on back side of
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold advection behind the departing low pressure will be brief,
but shower chances will continue tonight, mainly over the north
and east. Some snow may mix in as well, especially north of I-80
and in the high terrain. Expect any precipitation to end late
tonight as inversions lower.
High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley Friday, with
decreasing cloud cover as warm air advection ensures.
With the progressive upper level pattern, another system is
expected to approach late on Saturday. However, models are still
showing little agreement on how much impact, precipitation wise,
this next system will have on the area. Felt a model blend was
best for the Saturday forecast. Strong warm advection Saturday,
will allow for temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models are in relatively good agreement for the start of the
long term, with another shortwave expected to cross along a slow
moving boundary over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. After this time,
the models evolve the next low pressure system over the northern
Plain/Canadian border differently, so a blend of model guidance
was used. Overall, expect temperatures to remain at or just
slightly above seasonal averages through the period.
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Main concern overnight will be potential for LLWS as surface winds
have decoupled from stronger winds already being observed via
VWP observations. LLWS potential will continue into morning. The
potential will lessen somewhat as surface winds increase this
CIGS/VIS will remain VFR for a bit longer before MVFR and then IFR
conditions approach from the NW as rainfall and then a cold front
moves toward and through the area. These will linger into tonight.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR returns by Friday. More restrictions are possible this
weekend with another front.
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