Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 170946 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
546 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will end this morning as a cold front completes its
passage across the region. Scattered rain showers are expected
by this afternoon mainly north of Interstate 70. Scattered snow
showers are then expected tonight through Tuesday night as a
series of disturbances cross the region.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain showers ending this morning with the passage of a cold
front
- Scattered showers this afternoon with a secondary trough
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Remaining rain showers to the S and E of PIT will exit the
region early this morning with a departing cold front. The gusty
wind that occurred overnight was due to dry air was in place
ahead of the band of showers associated with the front. Wind
gusts from 35-40kt occurred as the precip begun, and
evaporation takes place. With a low level jet in place, some of
that wind mixed to the ground. Gusts have diminished now behind
the front.
A secondary surface trough, and low convective temperatures,
should result in scattered showers developing from later this
morning into the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonable levels behind the exiting front.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Colder with isolated to scattered snow showers through
Tuesday night
- Potential for light snow accumulation, mainly north of I 80
and in the higher terrain
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Scattered rain showers are expected to taper off this evening
for most of the area as the secondary trough exits. An upper
level trough is then expected to slowly approach the region
later tonight. This trough, and a WNW boundary layer flow across
Lake Erie, should result in additional scattered snow showers
tonight north of Pittsburgh. Lake surface to 850 mb temperature
differences are expected to be around 15 deg C, which is marginal
for lake enhancement.
The trough is expected to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region
Monday. Expect scattered snow showers to increase in coverage
through the day as convective temperatures are reached. Again,
some lake enhancement is expected in the WNW boundary layer
flow. Daytime accumulation will be limited with temperatures
mainly above freezing, and an increasing sun angle.
Scattered snow showers will continue Monday night before the
trough shifts east of the area later Monday night. Most
locations should see an inch or less of accumulation, though
areas north of I 80 and in the higher terrain could see an inch
or two under any more persistent snow showers.
WNW boundary layer flow should back to the SW by Tuesday
morning, ahead of another approaching trough. The trough, and
its associated weakening surface low, will track southeastward
across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. The most favorable
lift and moisture is expected to be across areas north of I 70,
where scattered snow showers should continue. Accumulations
should be light, and generally limited to areas north of I 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry and seasonable mid week
- Rain and snow chances return Friday
- Mainly dry to start the weekend
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Model ensembles indicate the upper level pattern should become
less amplified through late in the week. Mainly dry weather is
expected to begin the long term period, though a few lingering
snow showers are possible north of I 80 in cold NW flow
Wednesday and Thursday. A broad trough is expected to track
across the region Friday and Friday night, returning rain and
snow chances to the forecast. The greatest uncertainty in the
Friday/Friday night period is any possible phasing of a southern
stream low with the northern stream trough. Will monitor the
trends in future model output.
Saturday should be mainly dry as surface high pressure builds
across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is currently tracking through the region early this
morning. Based on TPIT radar, the front is tracking southeast
of AGC and will be at LBE shortly. Along this front, strong
wind gusts have been noted (ranging from 35kts to 40kts) due to
strong elevated wind gusts mixing down within a dry air mass.
Gusts between 30-35kts will be short-lived and will likely at
the leading edge of precipitation. However, 20kts to 30kt wind
gusts will be prolonged with the gradient wind associated with a
trough over the Great Lakes. Brief periods of MVFR are expected
for terminals northeast of HLG. However, drier conditions may
maintain VFR. By 12Z, the first wave of precipitation should
exit the region.
A weak passing shortwave should initiated lake enhanced
precipitation after 18Z. Precipitation type may start as rain
and transition to rain/snow mix with cold advection between 20Z
to 23Z. After 00Z, probability of precipitation type being snow
is high (above 90%). Convection cellular snow shower activity
will likely be the vicinity of DUJ/FKL. Confidence is low
that BVI, AGC, and PIT will be impacted by snow given the fetch
off the lake being more westerly.
.Outlook...
Restrictions and scattered snow showers return Monday night and
Tuesday with a reinforcing cold front and subsequent upper
troughing. VFR returns Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds in.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan