Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170946 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 546 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will end this morning as a cold front completes its passage across the region. Scattered rain showers are expected by this afternoon mainly north of Interstate 70. Scattered snow showers are then expected tonight through Tuesday night as a series of disturbances cross the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Rain showers ending this morning with the passage of a cold front - Scattered showers this afternoon with a secondary trough ------------------------------------------------------------------- Remaining rain showers to the S and E of PIT will exit the region early this morning with a departing cold front. The gusty wind that occurred overnight was due to dry air was in place ahead of the band of showers associated with the front. Wind gusts from 35-40kt occurred as the precip begun, and evaporation takes place. With a low level jet in place, some of that wind mixed to the ground. Gusts have diminished now behind the front. A secondary surface trough, and low convective temperatures, should result in scattered showers developing from later this morning into the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonable levels behind the exiting front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Colder with isolated to scattered snow showers through Tuesday night - Potential for light snow accumulation, mainly north of I 80 and in the higher terrain ------------------------------------------------------------------- Scattered rain showers are expected to taper off this evening for most of the area as the secondary trough exits. An upper level trough is then expected to slowly approach the region later tonight. This trough, and a WNW boundary layer flow across Lake Erie, should result in additional scattered snow showers tonight north of Pittsburgh. Lake surface to 850 mb temperature differences are expected to be around 15 deg C, which is marginal for lake enhancement. The trough is expected to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Monday. Expect scattered snow showers to increase in coverage through the day as convective temperatures are reached. Again, some lake enhancement is expected in the WNW boundary layer flow. Daytime accumulation will be limited with temperatures mainly above freezing, and an increasing sun angle. Scattered snow showers will continue Monday night before the trough shifts east of the area later Monday night. Most locations should see an inch or less of accumulation, though areas north of I 80 and in the higher terrain could see an inch or two under any more persistent snow showers. WNW boundary layer flow should back to the SW by Tuesday morning, ahead of another approaching trough. The trough, and its associated weakening surface low, will track southeastward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. The most favorable lift and moisture is expected to be across areas north of I 70, where scattered snow showers should continue. Accumulations should be light, and generally limited to areas north of I 80. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry and seasonable mid week - Rain and snow chances return Friday - Mainly dry to start the weekend ---------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles indicate the upper level pattern should become less amplified through late in the week. Mainly dry weather is expected to begin the long term period, though a few lingering snow showers are possible north of I 80 in cold NW flow Wednesday and Thursday. A broad trough is expected to track across the region Friday and Friday night, returning rain and snow chances to the forecast. The greatest uncertainty in the Friday/Friday night period is any possible phasing of a southern stream low with the northern stream trough. Will monitor the trends in future model output. Saturday should be mainly dry as surface high pressure builds across the region. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front is currently tracking through the region early this morning. Based on TPIT radar, the front is tracking southeast of AGC and will be at LBE shortly. Along this front, strong wind gusts have been noted (ranging from 35kts to 40kts) due to strong elevated wind gusts mixing down within a dry air mass. Gusts between 30-35kts will be short-lived and will likely at the leading edge of precipitation. However, 20kts to 30kt wind gusts will be prolonged with the gradient wind associated with a trough over the Great Lakes. Brief periods of MVFR are expected for terminals northeast of HLG. However, drier conditions may maintain VFR. By 12Z, the first wave of precipitation should exit the region. A weak passing shortwave should initiated lake enhanced precipitation after 18Z. Precipitation type may start as rain and transition to rain/snow mix with cold advection between 20Z to 23Z. After 00Z, probability of precipitation type being snow is high (above 90%). Convection cellular snow shower activity will likely be the vicinity of DUJ/FKL. Confidence is low that BVI, AGC, and PIT will be impacted by snow given the fetch off the lake being more westerly. .Outlook... Restrictions and scattered snow showers return Monday night and Tuesday with a reinforcing cold front and subsequent upper troughing. VFR returns Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds in. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WM NEAR TERM...WM SHORT TERM...WM LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...Hefferan

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