Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261657 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1157 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring clearing skies this evening. Rain chances return with a weak crossing disturbance Monday, and with a Tuesday warm front. A late Wednesday cold front will return wintry weather for the last half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure at the surface is building in from the southwest. Lingering flurries will taper down quickly this afternoon as heights build and flow backs to the southwest. By late this afternoon, mostly sunny skies should be seen through a majority of the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to reach near- normal values this afternoon, aided by increased insolation. Mostly clear skies will carry into the night under high pressure at the surface. Increasing southwest flow aloft will advect moisture back into the region by Monday morning. This will first manifest as high clouds residing across our southern zones by daybreak. Low to mid-level moisture catches up by midday monday, and increasing isentropic lift should provide enough support for showers to develop. Could see a light mix right at the onset of the showers, but with dew points and temperatures increasing quickly, rain will be the dominant precipitation type. Will continue to cap PoPs at chance as the warm front is transient and the upper-level moisture quickly evacuates eastward. TAx
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Warm front lifts north across the region late Monday night and Tuesday with better shower chances. Periods of showers are then expected through Wednesday as several shortwaves cross the area in SW flow ahead of a deepening upper trough and surface low across the Midwest. Elevated instability in place Tue night with a crossing shortwave and increasing shear could result in some thunderstorms. The low`s associated cold front is expected to advance across the area by late Wednesday with showers. A few gusty thunderstorms are possible with increasing shear and strong winds aloft. Moderating temperatures are expected each day, with readings around 20 degrees above average by mid week.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad upper troughing is progged to set up through late week. This along with lake and terrain enhancement should keep snow shower chances in the forecast. A reinforcing trough on Friday could result in a period of steady snow for some areas. The trough is expected to shift E of the area by Saturday with ridging building in. Below average temperatures are expected through the period. Used manually modified Superblend guidance to account for uncertainty and model differences, with a downward adjustment to temperatures late week in cold advection. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Light snow showers are tapering down east of KPIT and should cease to exist by 3pm. Mid-level cloud deck is eroding quickly as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Clear skies will be left in the wake. Winds will back slightly to the southwest through the evening, but should generally remain 10kts or less. High clouds will then increase late tonight into early Monday. A warm front will return the possibility of showers Monday, but little to no restrictions are expected with this activity. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will be possible again Tuesday morning as the next weather system impacts the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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