Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301915 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 315 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BEFORE SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH LOWER POPS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING AND WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH. CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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BY FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES SPREADING WEST WITH TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY BUT MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY IN REGARDS TO TIMING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND HELP SUPPORT ACTIVITY SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY MONDAY AS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL. NEXT FRONT MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE VCSH IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT FOR MORGANTOWN...WHICH HAS THE SMALLEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING A SHOWER. CANNOT RULE OUT A PASSING MVFR OBSERVATION OR TWO IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DROP SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 00Z...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES AT FKL/DUJ. A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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