Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191812 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 212 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Clear and warm this evening as high pressure maintains control. Several models show low-level moisture associated with a weak front, dropping down from the southern Great Lakes late this evening, eventually pooling near the higher elevations. This could bring additional cloud cover overnight to these areas, but the forecast will keep it scattered for now.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will re-build through the weekend, keeping it warm and dry. Despite an increase in cirrus and the ridge axis shifting east Saturday, increasing southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to climb further on Sunday. Highs Sunday will be about 15 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure ridge shifts east Sunday night into Monday as the broad western CONUS trough trudges east. Models differ slightly in the evolution and timing of the trough, with operational GFS/EC developing a cut off low near the southern MS Valley Monday. The EC deepens this low faster, ultimately slowing down precipitation to our region. Despite these timing differences, a pattern change will occur early next week, bringing rain and eventually much cooler temperatures. All operational models and ensembles develop an anomalously deep trough over the eastern CONUS through next week, keeping cool and unsettled weather through the remainder of the period.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A VFR forecast was maintained through the TAF period. Any fog should remain tight to the valleys once again and should not impact most terminals, with the possible exception of HLG. Also, models are hinting at some stratocumulus development along the ridges late tonight. Included a scattered layer at LBE and MGW, but not expecting a ceiling restriction at this time. Southwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots this afternoon will fade to under 10 knots around sunset. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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