Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281908 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 308 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL LINGERING IN THE VICINITY BUT ALL OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM ALLEGHENY COUNTY SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BY MORNING. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... BROKEN RECORD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS POPPING OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WV AND MD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM TEMPERATURES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITHOUT THE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY THAT WOULD COME WITH A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS ALOFT DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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