Area Forecast Discussion
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191 FXUS61 KPBZ 250324 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1124 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and periodic shower chances for the first half of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The midnight update featured adjustments to hourly trends of POPs and Sky cover based on the latest radar and satellite data as showers with a reinforcing cold front continue over the I 80 corridor. These will fade as the night and front progress. Another, albeit deeper shortwave is projected across the Great Lakes Sunday afternoon. Improved lapse rates and falling convective thresholds under cooling mid levels may be sufficient to support some isolated showers, but the probability will be inhibited by limited moisture. A precip mention was thus confined to the I 80 corridor where proximity to the mid level disturbance/cold pool will have greater affect. Cold advection should keep highs 5 to 10 degrees under the averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The next in series of shortwaves is projected for a Monday approach and Monday night passage. That disturbance is currently projected to have a slightly southward track and an improved, but still limited moisture tap; hence, precip probability for some showers, and possible thunderstorms will be enhanced until passage of the mid level reflection on Monday night. A weaker system in more amplified flow is forecast for a Tuesday crossing. Lack of dynamics should limit that precip chance for the Upper Ohio Region. Short term temperatures under the persistent troughing remain progged about 10 degrees under the averages.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The long term period will feature moderating temperature as flow aloft flatten/ridges in response to a trough digging out of Western Canada. Humidity and warmth will enhance with the progress of that trough over the Plains/Midwest, and precip chances escalate as the system erodes the Eastern ridge by the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast. VFR conditions will continue through the period. Diurnal cumulus will return on Sunday with occasional wind gusts yet again. .OUTLOOK... Chance for restrictions will come with afternoon convection on Sunday and Monday as an upper trough settles over the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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