Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 201814
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
114 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system
crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal
temperatures are expected through the end of the work week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at 11 AM as
visibilities as fog lifts and stratus area shrinks. Forecast on
track for the most part, with plenty of sunshine expected this
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The latest model runs continue to slow the progression of a
weak front, as it attempts to break down the sharp ridge over
the eastern CONUS. With the slower progression, likely PoPs are
not introduced until later in the afternoon/evening, which
leaves more time for daytime heating in warm advection/mixing.
Thus, highs were bumped up a few degrees despite increasing cloud
cover. The slower passage of the front will leave the chance for
rain in the southern zones through Wednesday morning but this
boundary will do little to change the continued unseasonable
warmth as 850hpa temperatures approach +10C once again.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not sure how much precipitation will be across the region on
Thursday with a front north of the region. Have continued chance
pops through this period, as well as Thursday night along the
warm front associated with strong low pressure in the central
plains. As warm as this week will be, Friday will likely be the
warmest day of the week, with many locations possibly seeing 70
degrees. A cold front will bring showers along with a chance of
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning, as well as
much more seasonable temperatures. Some scattered showers could
persist into Saturday night, and depending on the timing, may
end as a few snow showers. Expect dry and seasonable weather
Sunday before another chance of rain comes with a system racing
across the Tennessee Valley.
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue at all sites. Cannot rule out
another round of fog/stratus tonight into Tuesday morning,
particularly south and west of Pittsburgh, but with calm winds
not expected, 5 kt winds should be able to provide enough mixing
to prevent restrictions from dropping much lower than the MVFR
range. High clouds will be on the increase Tuesday in advance of
a cold front Tuesday night.
Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday night trough and a late
Friday/early Saturday cold front.