Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 041019 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 619 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD BRING DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. ANOTHER DRY AND COMFORTABLE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL LIKELY SEE CU DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS STILL WRANGLING WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AND IN TURN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE REAL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...SO DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE A SOLUTION FOR A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS POINT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE TAF SITES...SAVE DUJ...ARE ESCAPING FOG FOR THE MOST PART THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE SMALLER AIRPORTS ARE STILL SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY THOUGH...MAINLY NORTH OF PIT. SOME VFR SC/AC CONTINUES TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE CITY. ANY FOG/LOW CLOUD WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SCT/BKN VFR CU. WNW BREEZES WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS WEST OF PIT MAY SEE WINDS DIE OFF ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR LATE FOG...WHILE PIT ON EAST SHOULD REMAIN STIRRED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT. AN ISOLATED VFR SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT FKL/DUJ AS WELL. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE. && .EQUIPMENT... KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITH A FAILED TRANSMITTER. RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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