Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201814 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 114 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire at 11 AM as visibilities as fog lifts and stratus area shrinks. Forecast on track for the most part, with plenty of sunshine expected this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The latest model runs continue to slow the progression of a weak front, as it attempts to break down the sharp ridge over the eastern CONUS. With the slower progression, likely PoPs are not introduced until later in the afternoon/evening, which leaves more time for daytime heating in warm advection/mixing. Thus, highs were bumped up a few degrees despite increasing cloud cover. The slower passage of the front will leave the chance for rain in the southern zones through Wednesday morning but this boundary will do little to change the continued unseasonable warmth as 850hpa temperatures approach +10C once again. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Not sure how much precipitation will be across the region on Thursday with a front north of the region. Have continued chance pops through this period, as well as Thursday night along the warm front associated with strong low pressure in the central plains. As warm as this week will be, Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with many locations possibly seeing 70 degrees. A cold front will bring showers along with a chance of thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning, as well as much more seasonable temperatures. Some scattered showers could persist into Saturday night, and depending on the timing, may end as a few snow showers. Expect dry and seasonable weather Sunday before another chance of rain comes with a system racing across the Tennessee Valley. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will continue at all sites. Cannot rule out another round of fog/stratus tonight into Tuesday morning, particularly south and west of Pittsburgh, but with calm winds not expected, 5 kt winds should be able to provide enough mixing to prevent restrictions from dropping much lower than the MVFR range. High clouds will be on the increase Tuesday in advance of a cold front Tuesday night. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday night trough and a late Friday/early Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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