Area Forecast Discussion
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255 FXUS61 KPBZ 010802 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE RAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW...RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT...WILL DRAG ITSELF INTO NORTHWEST PA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FIRST SURFACE WAVE WILL BE WELL INTO NEW YORK. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME...AND IN TURN THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STILL STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER BEHIND THIS MORNING`S RAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS WELL SHEARED...SO IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THE WIND PROFILE WOULD PROMOTE INCREASED UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE RISK FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY PROVIDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONT WILL FINALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THE LAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA...HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TAKE ALL NIGHT AND PART OF MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST... ENDING THE RAIN THREAT. A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW CONSENSUS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL REQUIRE A BLEND OF DATA FOR THE TUESDAY FORECAST. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA COOL AND UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RAIN/WIDESPREAD IFR WILL CONTINUE OVRNGT. PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW WL VEER WIND TO THE SW AFTER DAYBREAK WITH MIXING SPPRTG SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS. THAT WL BE OFFSET BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH DESTABILIZATION VIA COOLING ALOFT/WARMING SFC. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON AS LOW PRESSURE COMPLETES PASSAGE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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