Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250407 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1207 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions tonight into Wednesday. Low pressure will bring showers back into the forecast Wednesday night through early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... General northwest flow will continue through the day today with some indications of a bit of a multi-lake fetch enhancing moisture flow toward the northern portions of the area. Model soundings and hi-res solutions both favor the continuation of a stratocumulus deck generally from Pittsburgh northward and developing into the ridges through the morning with diurnal enhancement likely toward early afternoon on Tuesday. A shower or two will be possible in the far northern reaches of the area due to very unstable low level lapse rates and some indications of saturation depth through the stratocumulus layer. Otherwise, the area remains dry through the day today with over-lake fetch decreasing late. This should start to allow for the dissipation of stratocumulus by that juncture. With clearing over Ohio and decreasing winds due to surface high pressure advecting southeastward through the period, radiational cooling should be fairly efficient. As dewpoints linger near freezing, this should allow for some frost development. The frost advisory will thus be continued through morning in these areas. Fries && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Conditions are expected to be clear and cold under high pressure Tuesday night. Much of Wednesday will be dry but with increasing clouds as a warm front approaches in advance of deepening Great Lakes low pressure. Shower chances will increase Wednesday night, with likely POPs Thursday as system crosses the Upper Ohio Valley. The mid level system will close off over New England for a time, keeping cold northwest flow across the region into Thursday night with scattered showers. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Brief ridging will dry out the region Friday afternoon, but another trough will already be approaching from the west for Saturday. Unsettled weather and cooler than seasonal average temperatures will hold for the weekend into early next week, as a broad trough will remain over the eastern CONUS. In general, followed close to the Superblend guidance for construction of the extended period. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions will remain largely VFR overnight with a period of MVFR late tonight/early morning at KFKL and KDUJ as lake-enhanced light showers/ sprinkles will remain a possibility. VFR conditions expected Tuesday as the upper trough shifts to the east. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will late Wednesday into Thursday as the next disturbance crosses the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning FOR OHZ039-048-049- 057>059-068-069. PA...None. WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning FOR WVZ004-012. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.