Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291926 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 326 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Another low pressure system brings rain to the region late Thursday through Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure continues to bring in drier air from the north, with only some very isolated cirrus clouds this afternoon. Although temperatures will cool off initially during the evening, warm advection should allow temperatures to level off sometime after midnight. Models are in some agreement with precipitation moving through the region from south to north Thursday with 850mb boundary, but am still unsure on just how aggressive to go with pops along the boundary. Decided to go no higher than low chance during the afternoon with the 850 boundary, then decided to ramp up pops as occluded front moves from west to east Thursday night. The occluded front appears as if it may arrive later Thursday night than previously forecast, but have stuck with categorical pops for most locations overnight. Temperatures over the next 24 hours will be the coolest they have been in about a week, with overnight lows above normal Thursday night in the warm sector.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Showers will continue everywhere Friday morning, with the chances for showers beginning to diminish Friday afternoon and Friday night. Lingering low level moisture may keep widely scattered showers possible through the first part of Saturday before building subsidence brings an end to precipitation. Above normal temperatures are forecast on Friday before dropping to at or slightly below normal values for Saturday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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While the second half of the weekend will be dry, showers will begin to threaten the area on Monday, with Monday night having the greatest chance for showers. While showers could possibly hold on into Tuesday, a bit of model uncertainty develops for the timing of the next low pressure system to arrive. Some model guidance shows rain moving in on Wednesday, with other guidance delaying rain until Thursday. Temperatures will generally stay close to or slightly above average for early April.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR under clear skies will last through late this evening. High clouds will begin to stream in from the west and southwest overnight. Increasing low-level moisture will then begin to pool west of the Ridges tonight, ahead of a warm front. This could lead to some spotty MVFR around daybreak for ZZV or even BVI/HLG, but confidence in this is low to medium. Otherwise, a descent to low VFR is expected through the duration of the TAF period, with rain chances increasing Thursday afternoon/evening. Light and variable winds will gradually shift easterly by Thursday, but generally remain less than 10kts. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again from late Thursday through Saturday as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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