-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270815
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
415 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT
MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES
HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE
LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH
WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON
MANY FACTORS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TOUGH DAY TO FORECAST. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AREA RIGHT
NOW...WITH MOST OF THE TSRA NOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH BY ABOUT 09Z OR SO...WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THE OHIO VALLEY MCS WILL MISS TO
OUR SOUTH...SO IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RELATIVE
LULL IN ACTIVITY FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO AROUND MIDDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EVENTS OF TONIGHT PLUS LATEST MODEL
RUNS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED VCTS MENTION FOR
MOST TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WILL HOPEFULLY BE
ABLE TO GIVE BETTER TIMING DETAILS IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$