-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 102329 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
729 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING RAIN...THEN SNOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE UPDATED CLOUD GRIDS TO REFLECT
LESS CLOUD COVER. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS CLOSER TO LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND NO SNOW
COVER...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WARMER FORECASTER FOR LOW
TEMPS.

SHORTWAVE EXITING EAST TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
AND CLOUDS DECREASING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIDING TOWARD
THE NY/PA BORDER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
WITH THE BOUNDARY STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WEDNESDAY WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC.

FRONT THAT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEAR KPIT. EXPECT A SHARP RAIN
SNOW LINE ALONG THE FRONT AS SURFACE LOW PASSES...WITH CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTH TO THE MASON
DIXON LINE AND RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW EXITS EAST.
850MB LOW WILL ALSO CROSS THE REGION TOWARD KYNG AND THIS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIP RAIN FOR A BIT LONGER PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT BULK OF BETTER QPF TO FALL AS RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.

SNOW AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
THE I-80 CORRIDOR EXTENDING TO KPHD AND NORTH OF KZZV WHERE
CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR EARLIER. WHERE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW LONGER A
BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VENANGO
AND FOREST COUNTIES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BUT FOR NOW LEFT OUT AS LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN THIS.

ELSEWHERE 1-2 INCHES PITTSBURGH METRO WITH AN INCH OF LESS
SOUTHERN WV PANHANDLE COUNTIES INTO EASTERN OHIO.

AS FRONT CROSSES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. WITH
A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP A QUICK FREEZE UP POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.

VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AND WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY REACH -10 AND WILL BE EVALUATED
FOR AN ADVISORY AS THE EVENT NEARS.

CONTINUED BRISK AND QUITE COLD THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC AND UPR RIDGING BLDS IN ERLY IN THE PD BEFORE AN ERN CONUS
TROF SETS UP FM THE WKEND INTO ERLY NXT WK. THE TROF WL BRING
PERIODIC PCPN CHCS AND BLO SEASONAL AVG TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPD TNGT UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGING. SOME MDL SOLNS SHOW ST
DVLPG BUT CURRENT OBS/TRENDS DO NOT SPPRT THIS. WNDS ABV THE SFC WL
CONT TO RESULT IN A LLVL WND SHEAR SET UP UNTIL JUST AFT MDNGT...
EXCEPT FOR PORTS S-SW OF PIT WHERE SPEEDS ARE NOT AS GREAT. VFR
SHOULD CONT INTO TUE WITH INCRG MD LVL AC.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WDSPRD RSTRNS ARE EXPD TUE NGT INTO WED NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS
ACRS THE UPR OH VLY RGN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT WITH A
CROSSING CDFNT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE BREEZY COMBINATION OF WARMTH WITH INCRSG
DEWPOINTS FOLLOWED BY RAIN WL ELIMINATE ANY RMNG SNOW IN THE
RIDGES. WITH THE QPF OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...ANY FLOOD CONCERNS SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED WITH RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS EXPECTED.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$