Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210649 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 149 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SNOW SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION TONIGHT...BUT IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS USING LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE FORMING AND BEING SUSTAINED RIGHT ALONG A PRETTY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS SHIFTED THE 850H FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS PULLING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD. BANDS THAT LEAVE THE LAKE AREAS ARE HAVING DIFFICULT MAINTAINING INTENSITY AS THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALSO A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THIS DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE QUITE WELL. THE BANDS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT DON`T EXPECT THEM TO AMOUNT TO MUCH. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH...WHICH WILL HAVE TO CONTENDED WITH THE STRONGER BAND MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE...AND OVER THE RIDGES WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY. SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO. THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR WILL REST OVER MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MODERATING AND THEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE FAR NORTH AND RIDGES. WITH SUNSHINE...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN...BUT BEGIN TO DECAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE COLDER AIR SLOWLY EXITS. ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON TAP. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG WAA GETS CRANKING ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...SO WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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