Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271852 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 252 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW STRATUS EDGE NEARING THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURE READINGS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TOO STABLE TO GENERATE EMBEDDED THUNDER UNTIL AFTER DAY BREAK THURSDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...AND A STRONG WARMING SHOULD OCCUR UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THE STRONG WARMING ALONG THE SOUTH WILL FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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KEPT HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUNDER PROSPECTS LOOK MEAGER WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND INSUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES. RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH EITHER WITH PWATS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. COVERAGE OF SHRA DECREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS RISE. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. THE GFS IS STILL SLOWER BUT SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FURTHER INCREASE BY FUTURE SHIFTS. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP VALUES A BIT COOLER...TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN THURSDAY...WITH RECOVERY ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME SUN. CL
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A BIT MORE CERTAIN OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT NOW...AS GFS IS COMING AROUND TO THE WETTER IDEA OF THE ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. HAVE LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN H500 TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S...AND TUESDAY APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PAYS A BRIEF VISIT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA. RELIED A BIT MORE HEAVILY ON SUPERBLEND SUGGESTIONS WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK MORE OR LESS SEASONABLY REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEANED ON SUPERBLEND HERE AS WELL. CL
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STUBBORN LOW CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD EROSION AND THE EDGE HAS REMAINED STAGNANT NEAR KPIT. EXPECT THIS EDGE TO SHIFT SOME THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WHILE GRADUALLY LIFTING. EARLY THURSDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAY PERHAPS LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER EASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT. TAX .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. && .EQUIPMENT... KPBZ RADAR HAS BEEN DOWN SINCE TUESDAY EVENING. WITH PARTS ON ORDER...THE RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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