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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020237
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT. A SECOND STORM...ACCOMPANIED BY
MILDER TEMPERATURES...WILL BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY BEGINNING AS A
PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. EVEN WHERE
PRECIPITATION LINGERS...INTO LATROBE AND MORGANTOWN...TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FALLING AS
RAIN. AT THIS POINT...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ENTIRE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE AN
INCH OR LESS CONSIDERING HOW SHALLOW ANY REMAINING INVERSION WOULD
BE AT THE SURFACE AND HOW LOW SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...IT WILL STILL BE A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL ALL
LOCATIONS DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING. WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 20S. THESE
VALUES WILL BE THE FIRST TIME MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN NEAR
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN AT LEAST A WEEK.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PREVENT
HIGHS FROM RISING ABOVE FREEZING...HENCE NO MELT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

COLD TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN ADVANCE OF
MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE. A COLD START WITH RAPID MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAY SPAWN SOME FREEZING RAIN PROBLEMS AND A MENTION OF
POSSIBLE HEADLINES WAS CONTINUED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...BUT THE PRECIPITATION START TIME AND TEMPERATURE
MAGNITUDE PROGNOSIS IS NOT MODEL CONSISTENT AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

IN ADDITION...PROLONGED WARM...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED RAINFALL LATER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT SNOW MELT UNTIL COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS AS DEPICTED BY
THE MODELS ARE SHAKY AS USUAL IN WARM ADVECTION EVENTS...ESPECIALLY
IN LIGHT OF THE LOW CENTER CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. A LACK OF
CONVECTION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WOULD CERTAINLY ROB THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL.

NEVERTHELESS...WITH SNOWMELT...SMALL STREAM AND RIVER RISES SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED AND SOME ICE COVER IS LIKELY TO POP...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN BASINS. THE RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM
FLOODING WILL THUS REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ALSO.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WILL
DECREASE POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THURSDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM DRY AND COLD.
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&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SNOW AND RAIN OVER
THE REGION. GENERAL IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
SYSTEM...BUT IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR...AND FINALLY VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER ON MONDAY AS STRATOCU FINALLY GIVES WAY TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT
STARTING TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW MELT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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&&

$$