Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 202338 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 638 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Mild weather will continue through the weekend. Widespread rain is expected to move back into the region by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The last vestiges of rainfall along the warm front that has surged northward across the area will be traversing the I-80 corridor over the next few hours. In the wake of the warm front, abundant boundary layer moisture remains as evidenced by dewpoints largely in the lower 50s across the southern two-thirds of the area. This air mass will continue northward slowly overnight, while warm advection will be even stronger off the deck. The net result looks to be strengthening inversions and the trapping of a fair bit of moisture below them. With this in mind, fog looks to be a concern over much of the area as no areas have really managed to mix out at this juncture. With warm advection off the surface and the likelihood of stratus development, model soundings look to also be supportive of some drizzle across the northern two-thirds of the CWA as well as in the ridge. Thus, while measurable rainfall seems unlikely, patchy drizzle may be an issue in spots into the morning hours of Saturday. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The short term portion of the forecast will be the wettest part of the week ahead. ECMWF/GFS/NAM have come to a bit of a compromise over the last couple of days for the track of the upper low that will develop across the Southern Plains, track near the Gulf Coast, then north up to central Pennsylvania. While there is still some run to run variability, occasional rain is expected and it appears that Sunday night and Monday will likely have the most rain. Temperatures will remain warm enough that only a few snowflakes are expected to mix in with rain Monday morning in the ridges, and precipitation could begin to wind down as snow Monday night as temperatures drop back towards the freezing mark. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Any remaining showers should wind down Tuesday, with cold enough air that many locations could see some minimal snow accumulation. There should be a bit of a break between systems before low pressure races across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Behind the low, northwest flow aloft will allow for scattered showers to continue through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will drop through the end of the work week, with below normal values expected by Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain will continue to diminish as the supporting shortwave trough progresses northward, but IFR to low end MVFR cigs will linger into Saturday as a warm front shifts northward. .OUTLOOK... More restrictions are likely Saturday night into Monday with slow moving low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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