Area Forecast Discussion
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119 FXUS61 KPBZ 252156 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 556 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... While showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday, the rest of the seven day forecast should be dry with near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Stratocumulus is finally starting to break up and scatter out from north to south as low level moisture continue to peel off ot the south. With a bit of a northeasterly wind component, the area around Jefferson County, PA, may take a tad longer as well. Regardless, with the loss of daytime heating and continued dry advection into the area, most areas should go clear overnight. As inversions form, winds will back off and just drift from the N overnight. Due to the rivers being so warm and the air temperatures dropping off fairly abruptly after dark, some river valley fog will also be possible overnight. Fries
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While widespread cloud cover is not expected tomorrow morning, valleys are expected to have fog around sunrise. After fog clears out, a mostly sunny day is forecast. With winds having swung around from the north to south and less cloud cover present, highs should warm back towards seasonal levels. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night in advance of a cold front that will slowly work its way across the region. Primary change made with this forecast package was to spread out precipitation over a wider period, partially because of the surface front taking longer to cross the area and partially because a second upper level wave will give some reinforcing lift on Friday. While locations south and east of Pittsburgh are in a slight risk for the Thursday convective outlook, the uncertainty in the evolution of the system is also higher than normal. Likely pops were kept in the forecast, with the mention of categorical pops removed due to uncertainty in timing.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers could linger into Friday night and even Saturday morning, but so far have not been too aggressive with keeping pops in the forecast longer. Once conditions dry out, high pressure over the Great Lakes could keep the rest of the forecast dry, although another front may cross the Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period. Temperatures will remain seasonable. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR and low VFR cigs will continue to lift and scatter out through the afternoon, with VFR prevailing by sunset. Models are hitting the fog/stratus hard but this doesn`t seem likely. Instead, fog may be mainly limited to the valleys, with some stratus north and east of I-80, closer to the departing low. Conditions should improve after sunrise where any fog does develop, with VFR prevailing thereafter under high pressure. .OUTLOOK... Restriction chances return Thursday as low pressure impacts the Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.