Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271804 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 204 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MID AFTN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST FOR TORNADO WATCH AND HOURLY TRENDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES. TSTMS WL CONT DVLPG AS SFC TEMPS ARE NR/EXCEED CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS...AND AS MID LVLS COOL WITH THE ADVN OF GREAT LAKES LOW PRES. DEEP LYR SHEAR WL ALSO INCRS AS MID...AND LOW LVL FLOWS IMPROVE INTO THE EVE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INTO ERLY EVE WITH ADVNG LOW PRES. TEMPO TSTM MENTIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL PORTS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT MVFR TO DEVELOP OVRNGT IN ST/SC AND SHWRS. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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