Area Forecast Discussion
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854 FXUS61 KPBZ 021741 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1241 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... With 12:15pm update, made several minor changes to the forecast. One thing that bears watching is that several consecutive runs of the HRRR bring a snow band a bit farther south than any other model, down into Lawrence/Butler/Armstrong. Although the model only forecasts about an inch of snow, will need to see whether pops should be shifted farther to the south. Previous discussion follows. Mid level trough over eastern Canada will continue to transition east through tonight, with weak cold advection across the region. Southwest flow today will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers or sprinkles well north, with only scattered snow showers north of I-80 and in the ridges. Clouds will keep temperatures from rising any if at all through the day. Flow will turn slightly more to the northwest tonight, which will allow for a bit more coverage of snow showers into the ridges and I-80 corridor, but only a light accumulation if any. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Snow showers Saturday morning will diminish by afternoon as surface high pressure builds east. Split mid level flow on Sunday brings timing issues, as well as amount of and type of precip for later Sunday into early Monday. Southern stream moisture does not look to get involved as a northern stream shortwave does not phase with southern stream, and exits quickly east Monday. As such system will be moisture starved, with chance pops for rain or snow showers mainly Sunday night. Temperatures will be near the seasonal averages through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deepening mid level trough into the northern Rockies mid week will bring a double barreled low pressure system northeast from the deep south to New England by Wednesday. Once again shortwaves will be out of phase, so while likely pops were forecast Tuesday, QPF will likely be light. Relatively mild Wednesday ahead of approaching low pressure and a strong cold front. Timing issues still need to be resolved with the cold front, and a model blend was used. Behind the front much colder air will arrive for late week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Stratocu will keep intermittent MVFR cig restrictions in play through the TAF period with possible IFR at PIT and FKL tonight in light snow showers. Gusty west winds will lessen somewhat by mid evening. .OUTLOOK... Ceiling restrictions are likely through Saturday night in cold W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again Tuesday with low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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