Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 021741
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1241 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
Low pressure across the Great Lakes will keep clouds and near
seasonal temperatures across the area into the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With 12:15pm update, made several minor changes to the forecast.
One thing that bears watching is that several consecutive runs of
the HRRR bring a snow band a bit farther south than any other
model, down into Lawrence/Butler/Armstrong. Although the model
only forecasts about an inch of snow, will need to see whether
pops should be shifted farther to the south. Previous discussion
Mid level trough over eastern Canada will continue to transition
east through tonight, with weak cold advection across the region.
Southwest flow today will keep bulk of lake enhanced snow showers
or sprinkles well north, with only scattered snow showers north
of I-80 and in the ridges. Clouds will keep temperatures from
rising any if at all through the day. Flow will turn slightly more
to the northwest tonight, which will allow for a bit more coverage
of snow showers into the ridges and I-80 corridor, but only a
light accumulation if any.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow showers Saturday morning will diminish by afternoon as
surface high pressure builds east. Split mid level flow on Sunday
brings timing issues, as well as amount of and type of precip for
later Sunday into early Monday. Southern stream moisture does not
look to get involved as a northern stream shortwave does not phase
with southern stream, and exits quickly east Monday. As such
system will be moisture starved, with chance pops for rain or snow
showers mainly Sunday night. Temperatures will be near the
seasonal averages through the period.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deepening mid level trough into the northern Rockies mid week will
bring a double barreled low pressure system northeast from the
deep south to New England by Wednesday. Once again shortwaves will
be out of phase, so while likely pops were forecast Tuesday, QPF
will likely be light. Relatively mild Wednesday ahead of
approaching low pressure and a strong cold front. Timing issues
still need to be resolved with the cold front, and a model blend
was used. Behind the front much colder air will arrive for late
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Stratocu will keep intermittent MVFR cig restrictions in play
through the TAF period with possible IFR at PIT and FKL tonight in
light snow showers.
Gusty west winds will lessen somewhat by mid evening.
Ceiling restrictions are likely through Saturday night in cold
W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again
Tuesday with low pressure.
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