Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 050643 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 243 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER KY WILL WOBBLE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO THE CAROLINAS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST...WITH HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES WITH CHANCE POPS BACK TO PITTSBURGH...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. CLOSED LOW OPENS AND SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE RIDGES. STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES LATE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDWEST TROF. SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER CHCS THRU THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW TSTMS PSBL BY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROGGED. TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LVLS SHOULD INCREASE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVG BY MIDWEEK. THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...WITH SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS...WAS USED THRU THE PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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