Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 042321 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 621 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO END THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH AS PRECIPITATION HAS OR WILL SOON BE CHANGING TO SNOW. ONGOING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS SHOULD CONTINUE THOUGH NEW FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS WELL SOUTH OF PIT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTS IN. A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WHERE MODELS INDICATE A FAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE FLOW AND FAVORABLE LIFT. MAINTAINED ALL WINTER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS. A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF PIT. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WAVE EXITS OFF THE COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE DAY. THURSDAYS HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKS OUT THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE WEST. REMNANT SKY COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A FRESH SNOW PACK...FOR AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALL SIGNS POINT TO DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO CRATER WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS HOLDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRI...WHICH WOULD DISRUPT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK THIS ROUTE IS A BIT CONSERVATIVE...AND HAVE HELD LOWS BELOW THOSE NUMBERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS TO INTRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. POPS WERE FORECAST GENERALLY BELOW CHANCE CLIMO NUMBERS USING GFS TIMING...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL WITH DOUBTS ABOUT TIMING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE AND MOS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COPIOUS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH AND GENERATES SNOW ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ049-050- 057>059-068. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ021-023- 029-031-073>075. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ012- 021>023-041.
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&& $$

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