Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231736 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 136 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... After another warm day, a cold front will return temperature to seasonal levels. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front is currently moving through the region from north to south, although all of the clouds and precipitation remain north of the front. The lift with the front is rather weak, and it appears likely that any precipitation that occurrs locally with the front would be during daytime hours. Have added a mention of possible sprinkles along the I-80 corridor this evening, but otherwise think that the region should remain dry with the frontal passage. However, cloud cover will be rather widespread tonight into Saturday. Behind the cold front, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will begin to inch southward. Although overnight temperatures will be similar to last night`s low temperatures, daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today`s values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will remain over the region Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure developing over the Northern Plains will then move to the east, bringing another cold front to the region. Models still are wobbling on the exact arrival time, but rain should move into the region sometime on Monday and come to an end late Monday night. Will increase pops again, but still do not have quite enough confidence to bump up pops to likely at this point. Although temperatures during this time period will not be as warm as they have been this week, they will still run a couple of degrees above normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Models coming into better agreement with slow moving storm system from the Great Lakes translating east with an associated cold front into Wednesday. Models still differ on strength and speed of system, so Superblend was used for much of the forecast period with chance POPs through Tuesday tapering to isolated showers Wednesday. Dry and cool high pressure will dominate late week.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR will prevail until passage of a cold front this evening. Light wind will continue, but expect a veer from west-northwest to the north in the wake of the front. Restrictions, including IFR ceilings, are expected tonight and into Saturday morning, as the front sags across the region. Dry advection and subsidence with building high pressure will ensure VFR thereafter. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will come with a late Monday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15/33

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