Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231405 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 905 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A WK SHRTWV ACRS NW PA WL CONT SHWR CHCS THRU THE MRNG. OTRW EXP MAINLY DRY WEA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH MAINLY CLDY CONDS WL CONT. THE NXT SHRTWV IN SW FLOW WL ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN LT TDA INTO TNGT. WITH AMPLE DEEP MSTR...UPR SPPRT...AND LLVL JET EXP WIDESPREAD RAIN. MRNG RAOBS SPPRT HIGHS IN THE 50S...TO LWR 60S TWD MGW. LTL TEMP DCR IS EXPD TNGT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ARE LIKELY...AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE PSBL IF DEEP MXG OCCURS. COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR MIDWEST. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MATURE QUICKLY AND MOVE NORTH OR NORTHEAST ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE STRONGLY IN THIS PERIOD. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MAJOR STORM INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER...WITH AN OPEN WAVE GOING OUT TO SEA AND FAILING TO LATCH ONTO THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TRAVEL TO AND FROM THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AIRPORTS AND HIGHWAYS WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE LOCAL CWA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM...FOLKS TRAVELING TO OR FROM THE EAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK...INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. PRESENTLY DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER-LIKE WAVE COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. BOOKBINDER && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT SRLY SFC WINDS. AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SERLY FLOW. EXPECTING MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM FRONT RAIN...SOME DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE NRN TERMINALS. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON. TAX OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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