Area Forecast Discussion
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897 FXUS61 KPBZ 290128 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 928 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm chances continue until the passage of the cold front overnight. Weak high pressure will keep Memorial Day mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Evening update made to nix the flash flood watch as the focus for heavy rain and localized flooding has shifted northward in the vicinity of the warm front with residual outflow boundaries allowing for additional storms to develop. Overall, expect strength of storms to diminish with time with the loss of heating, but threat for heavy rain will linger until the approach of the cold front tonight. Latest HRRR keeps this reasoning, as the bulk of the precipitation remains situated north and east of the turnpike. Will outline this area in the hazardous weather outlook for the night with the thought that most of the water issues will remain localized. Cold front is still progged to pass overnight, with it east of the region by 8am. Warm advection and low level mixing should be sufficient to keep temperatures above seasonal averages tonight. Weak surface and mid level ridging should keep most of Monday dry before a shortwave, pivoting through the broad upper trough centered over the Great Lakes, brings the return of moist, southerly flow and convergence for precipitation late. Temperatures should be close to or just above seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave will skim the region to our north Monday night and Tuesday, bringing another front across the region that should provide some scattered showers. Held off on thunder for Tuesday for now as models disagree on stability, however steepening lapse rates may allow for it. Precipitation coverage will wane behind the boundary Tuesday night. Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Great Lakes/northeast CONUS trough will remain through the end of the week, with periodic shower chances from shortwaves moving through the flow. By next weekend, the upper pattern becomes more zonal, and a frontal boundary could stall out somewhere near or in our region. This boundary could provide more focused rainfall chances, but its placement remains in question. Temperatures will remain near or just a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions will continue at KFKL and KDUJ, mainly for visibility in thunderstorms, until the passage of the cold front tonight. Outside of these two locations, VFR will generally prevail until the front approaches, with deterioration to MVFR and IFR likely in showers and post-frontal stratus/fog. VFR will return after sunrise under brief high pressure. Wind shift from wsw to wnw is expected with the cold front overnight. Wind gusts of 15-20kts are possible tomorrow afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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