Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190507 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 107 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and possibly strong storms will roll through this afternoon and evening. Nice and comfortable Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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No changes to the overnight period. Another, fast-moving, shortwave trough will swing through the region late today. Bolstered by cooling mid-level temperatures, showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the upper level energy and rush southeastward during the late afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Showers and storms will be exiting the southeastern ridge counties this evening. Drier air will quickly spread across the area behind the exiting upper level system. Quiet weather and comfortable conditions are expected on Sunday. Latest model solutions are showing a rather substantial increase in the 500mb height field by late Sunday and into Monday. This should induce an increase in surface temperatures to above normal, on Monday. Additionally, as the low-level flow shifts to the southwest, humidity levels will slow creep up.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Highlights: - Warm and Humid Tuesday - Cold Front Crosses Tuesday night into Wednesday - Dry and Below Normal Temperatures The main weather feature of the long term is a cold front crossing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Long range models provide above average confidence to warrant likely pops for the entire region. In wake of the baroclinic zone, sprawling high pressure, building south from the Great Lakes, offers cooler weather as H8 temps fall below 10C. The passing mid level trough axis could ignite daytime showers mainly north of Lake Erie Wednesday afternoon.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the morning in shortwave ridging. Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase through the afternoon with the approach and passage of a shortwave trough. Will maintain a VCTS/tempo TS mention in the tafs. VFR should return by evening under building high pressure. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early Wed cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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