Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291013 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 613 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH 6AM UPDATE...HAVE PULLED PRECIPITATION FROM I-80 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS COMING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAVE DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE...AND DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER MENTION. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO...AND LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SHOW SHOWERS HOLDING TOGETHER MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MCU IMPACT TO CIGS/VIS. LATER TODAY MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE CLOUD LEVELS WILL NOT DROP TO AOB 3KFT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN LOWER LEVELS. AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...AND ANY ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.